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I know, you’re angry about Rep. Bart Stupak and the amendment he managed to foist at the last minute onto the health care reform process. The amendment is a throwback to the 1970′s when women were still fighting for control of their right to privacy over their reproductive health.
But you’re stuck with him. Yes, I said STUCK.
Scream all you want about supporting a primary candidate. Rant that you want the women of Michigan’s first congressional district to do something about this guy.
It’ll be a waste of energy and resources.
I’m going to leave you with a wealth of research links below for you to prove it to yourselves, but the very first thing you need to look at is the map of his district. It covers nearly a third of the geographic area of the state of Michigan, and it’s the most rugged and disparate area of the state as well, from rolling fields farmed by Mennonites to sparsely populated mountains hunted by some and hiked by others. He’s got nearly as much coastline in his congressional district as entire states like Florida, only without the luxury of many wealthy residents and balmy weather (except during the first week of August each year).
Yeah, and the weather. About that.
You’ve got to want this district, all 24,875 square miles of it, and want it badly. This portion of the state is brutally unforgiving to people who need to traverse its breadth. The northern most portion sees hundreds of inches of snow each year, the northern coastline has sunk many a vessel including freighters like the Edmund Fitzgerald, and the meeting point between the state’s peninsulas isn’t exactly a picnic. Well, perhaps in summer when tourists flock to eat fudge and ride the ferry to picturesque Mackinac Island. But winter weather literally threw a car and its driver off the deck of the Mackinac Bridge during high winds, tossing it down a couple hundred feet to crushing cold death on the icepack and slushy water below.
And the people are not easy. Hell no.
They are fiercely loyal, deeply loving people, but they are intensely private and do not open up except in the most shallow and polite fashion. At least not until you have been tested. You will have to earn your way into their lives through many seasons spent at their side. You will have to prove you can be trusted when the chips are down, when the car is broken down on a back road deep in the woods in the dark of winter. When you come to their rescue and you follow through, then they will let you in. And you’ll stay there only when you are still there through the births and deaths and the many casseroles served up at the local church for each of these events, and you’ve bought enough rounds of beers during deer and football season (but not so many that you look like an easy touch).
I was born a Yooper, have spent many summers of my life there, have a Yooper mother and Yooper family. And yet even I am not a Yooper. I haven’t been through at least a year and its two seasons — winter and not-winter — nor have I brought casseroles regularly through sleet and mosquitoes to church events. Even though it’s in my blood, I admit I am not and will probably never be a Yooper. They will always see me as a "troll" from under the Bridge, as they refer to Michiganders from downstate well south of the Mackinac Straits.
That’s why you are stuck with Stupak. He’s a Yooper. The man is a former state trooper; he’s traveled these dark and icy back roads, shown up when he was needed, and he knows that what he does as a representative is a freaking piece of cake compared to what the people in his district do to get by. (Recall the Coen Brothers’ movie Fargo here for a second.) He’s also still a Yooper through and through; you’ll see him in the airport like Chicago, and he’s every bit as accessible there as he is in the great white north. He, like all other Yoopers I know, has no pretensions.
And in assessing Stupak and what do about him, we must have no pretensions either.
First, there’s a reason Stupak is inside the C-Street "tent"; it’s not only because of a shared religious ideology, but because they are a minority group (albeit a deliberately manufactured and selective minority group with social and political capital). Minority groups "circle up the wagons" to provide each other support and shelter against a majority which doesn’t understand them or encourage their assimilation.
And it’s just as difficult to become a Yooper as it is for Yoopers to assimilate with a larger culture. They are stubbornly independent, in no small part because they must be. That’s why it seems entirely possible to me that Stupak is independent within the sheltering circle of the C-Street community.
Secondly, to primary Stupak means you will have to find a candidate who is everything Stupak is to his district. Somebody who is a Yooper, born or made, with the ability to represent the more Republican districts of lower northern Michigan, and the more Democratic constituents of the western upper peninsula. It means being strongly pro-union, pro-agriculture, pro-forestry, pro-gun — and unfortunately, pro-life. It also means being willing to commit to traveling the length and breadth of this district all the time and making personal appearances on a frequent basis. Yoopers do not trust what they cannot see; they want dependability, reliability, and only showing up when expected and needed will prove that out.
Thirdly, it takes more than money to win this district. Yes, your candidate will have to have adequate money to traverse this wickedly demanding district, but money won’t work where you don’t have adequate broadcast to reach the most reliable voters. There are stretches of the district where one can’t count on more than one television station, more than one radio station, and certainly not cell phone service. Yes, people still live in these stretches — but they live there to get and stay away from what they see as crap. Think Ted Kaczynski, without the urge to bomb any one. You are going to have to find a way to reach those people and ask for their votes.
(Funny, this: the two places you’ll be sure to find the highest number of voters are at church and at the local bar. You and your candidate ready to go there every week for two years? I wouldn’t be able to handle either the sermons or the country music, sorry.)
Fourthly, because of the centrality of the church to the communities across the district, your ideal primary candidate is someone who leans right-ward in order to persuade the district’s voters. They may lean left on everything else, but right on religion.
And right there is the real key to the problem. We, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, should have seen the Stupak Amendment coming.
The man has a solid blue streak when it comes to everything but abortion. It’s as plain as the shock of hair on his head, impossible to miss. So why not head him and the other religious ideologues off at the pass when formulating the health care bill? Why not answer that directly and upfront? Why was there not some effort to partition off the bill in a way which would make for a win-win for the ideologues’ districts?
And why did we not see that the C-Streeters would and could use Stupak against us? They’ve known they had this Trojan Horse to deploy, a staunchly Catholic Democrat whose voting record apart from abortion wouldn’t trigger our wariness until too late. Shame on us.
The answer is simple: don’t let this happen again. Be pro-active and know the representatives whose votes you must have to win. This means understanding the district they come from and exactly what kind of people back home you must persuade. It means not taking for granted the primary election process, ensuring there’s a pipeline of people who love their district and want the job badly and are trained and ready to go.
Because you are going to find there are more than one Stupak and you’re stuck because you not only turned your back on them. You didn’t plan ahead for this long, dark winter.
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Overviews of the state house districts which comprise Michigan’s MI-01 Congressional District (profiles up to 2008):
Overview of the state senate districts which comprise Michigan’s MI-01 Congressional District (profiles up to 2008):
MI-01 Congressional District profile
Stupak’s profile in OpenCongress.org
Stupak’s profile at Project VoteSmart
98 Comments
And now the good news: no Republican wants the district badly enough. They’ve conceded an R+3 district until Stupak retires or attempts to run for the Senate.
And more good news: Stupak will probably never become a Senator after the notoriety of this amendment. Could be bad news, depending on how you look at it, too, perhaps if you’re a pro-life Dem Michigander.
excellent analysis, thanks Rayne.
Leastways there will be no Senator Stupak.
BUT does Stupak represent yooper views on abortion?
If they do, such seems strange to me because the type of people you’re describing would seem to understand the need for ‘culling’.
And, obviously, given what you’ve written,there is only one other way to get rid of the guy.
I believes ya sister Rayne
all it does is underscore my call to go after Dahlkemper and Kaptur – there has to be a price for their handiwork
Southern-most part of Stupak’s district is very red, very conservative. The state reps who win in that area are nominally Dems and cause problems with state level legislation because they are also anti-tax people.
Upper Peninsula has many Catholics and Lutherans who are pro-life. There are opportunities among the college populations at Northern Michigan, Michigan Tech, Lake Superior State to improve trend, but they are not long-term consistent voters.
Eastern side of the UP is also more conservative than the western portion.
Putting the demographics aside, you need to realize we are dealing with the fundamental hypocrisy of Christian religion and its resulting attitude: “the only legitimate abortion is mine.” Once you grok that, you’ll understand how the pro-life vote gets reconciled with the facts on the ground.
Research worthy of Colbert’s segment on knowing your own district. You’d have won that round with him.
Yah, because I’m a Yooper by blood, eh?
“Once you grok that, you’ll understand how the pro-life vote gets reconciled with the facts on the ground.” ; impossible to ‘grok’ that.
Here, maybe this will help: “The Only Moral Abortion is My Abortion.”
Still requires mental, emotional, psychic and moral backflips. Some of us just aren’t that supple.
Rayne, thank you so very much for this. Your detailed and personal explanation of this district is really invaluable.
So — what’s the possibility that Michigan will lose a CD this census round? And could it be this one?
And — it sure sounds like a GOP CD to me, why has the GOP ceded the district to Stupak?
Finally — it sounds like a district that could mightily benefit from federal largesse. Has Obama made any overtures to Stupak, in the way he won Cao’s vote by promising to up New Orleans aid? Everyone’s got a pressure point.
Finally for reals — does Stupak have personal wedges? Surely his C-Street residence has at least exposed him to the hanky-panky that goes on there. Does he have any vulnerabilities of his own, besides well-deserved mockery for that muskrat atop his head?
Last: vote Stupak! We’re Number One!
Oh, we’re definitely losing a CD.
If Dems have their say it’ll be Thad McCotter’s district (SE MI, about 18 miles from A2).
Don’t know what Republicans would do if they get the upper hand–probably try to cause more havoc in SE MI.
But in any case, the district itself will be there, and it’s still a totally tough sell (this is one of the biggest CDs east of the Mississippi, even leaving aside the two peninsula factor which makes travel all the more difficult.
Wow, Rayne. This explains a lot. What an incredibly diverse country we live in…
*Sure you couldn’t do casseroles and church for a short two years?*
Excellent analysis.
What you see today is what you get tomorrow.
Well, everyone deserves a representative who, um, represents them, their views, and their values. Rayne makes a very convincing case that Stupak is their guy.
Perhaps Democrats would do better to focus our energy on removing his likely allies, in districts where we’re more likely to succeed. Marginalizing and isolating Stupak within the caucus would be a success for us as well.
But opposing a Congressman who’s a good match for the district is a fool’s errand. We’re not fools, are we? Are we?
re: Losing a district — we’ll lose at least one, and Marcy’s right, it’s downstate in a more urban area, somewhere in the triangle between Flint, Lansing and Detroit. There is no urge reshape MI-01 because there’s been little change in the population in this region. And there’s a level of stasis with Stupak as rep.
re: Republican ceding — they don’t want it. As Marcy reminded me yesterday, it’s the biggest district by area east of the Mississippi; it’s thinly populated, with pockets of deep blue. There are Republicans who flirt with it, but there are few who will consider doing more than being a placeholder on the ballot, especially against a candidate whose drawn more votes than Democratic presidential candidates. This district simply takes the kind of work very few candidates would ever even dream of taking on, regardless of party affiliation.
Re: federal largesse — Jane has pointed to the biofuels rider which was added to the health care bill. That may be some of the largesse you’re thinking of, but the method of application is bloody weird. Seems like the district got the largesse AND Stupak got the Amendment; was this what he meant by more than asked for, or no?
And yes, the area could use largesse. It’s been challenged since the first Great Depression, always been too thin on jobs, and the “trolls” in state government forget that it has fine educational institutions. The state has locked itself into what they call a “technology triangle,” located in SE Michigan between UofM in Ann Arbor, Wayne State in Detroit, and Michigan State in Lansing. Lots of state and federal money for research gets bounced between these three schools. Yet both Michigan Tech and Northern Michigan have research programs well-suited to development of alternative and green energy and environmental conservation.
/soapbox — this one is my pet peeve; both my dad and spouse are MTU grads.
re: personal wedges — I have never, ever heard any dirt about Stupak. Ever. And man, I have heard dirt on 80% of all other politicians in this state. Wish I had something more than he’s annoyingly Catholic and rooms in with a nasty crowd of hypocritical Christianist freaks.
Loo Hoo, that would be my idea of hell on earth.
From starchy, greasy casseroles delivered with guilt-trippy sermons, to the sickly-sweet stench of cigarette smoke mixed with sloppy, cold wet feet, beer-sticky bar tops and an excess of country music on the jukebox…
Ugh. I would sooner throw myself under Stupak’s bus, eh?
(“throw” in Yooper-ese is pronounced “trow,” by the way…)
The real problem is the same as it is across the country. The pipeline must be deeper and wider with candidates at all times.
We’re working on it here, but it will take a generation to realize this. We need to be recruiting, grooming, training the candidates for 2012 right now, who’ll likely win in 2014.
[edit: oh, and the other problem in the mean time: DO NOT TAKE ANY REPRESENTATIVE AND THEIR DISTRICT FOR GRANTED. There's NO excuse for the way the anti-abortion crowd was completely ignored, and the same goes for the single-payer folks.]
Thanks, Rayne, for a really great piece. Looks like Stupak’s invulnerable, and others need to pay if we can do it.
My father grew up in the UP, on the Keeweenaw Peninsula. He got the hell out as soon as he could, joining the Navy. So I’m now a native Californian, but he’s still a 92 year old stubborn Finn….
As a Minnesotan I think I should take umbrage at the Fargo comparison, our bleakness is totally different from Upper Michigan’s bleakness. And one more thing. We have hotdish in our churches, not casseroles.
What a terrific read from a personal lifetyle perspective!
You gave a GREAT descriptor of life up there.
As far as Stupak goes, who cares?
Let him be the Congrassperson for his district!
His abortion amendment is merely a bargaining chip to be used in conference, to water down HCR before both chambers vote on a final bill (what I learned today, thanks PUPS!).
Aside from his amendment, YOUR post is exceptional for it’s depth and detail of life elsewhere.
And your final big pic analysis, about KNOWING your reps, and elected offals, is so spot on.
But to do so, for all of them? Impossible.
It would be like knowing each and every candidate in a local school board election if you don’t have kids in school, or friends with kids in school. It’s just too far out of your realm of experience.
County politics, Boards of Supes, perhaps.
State officials? In your district? A must know!
Reps in other’s areas? Impossible to keep up with, and support or oppose, without a huge internet network.
You know, like an FDL in every ‘hood. *G*
Thanks again for your read, delightful.
Wonderful article, Rayne, just not what I wanted to hear but oh well, I’m a tough New Mexican/Ohioan.
Um..Go Buckeyes!/Snark I swear
These personal insights are sooo helpful to those of us who haven’t been to lots of different states or don’t have family members in other states.
As a native Californian, in the Bay Area, it’s funny to hear Republicans go after Pelosi and Boxer as crazed liberals
when a lot of locals don’t consider them near liberal enough!
So “The Bobs” are really telling it like it is?
Heck why don’t progressives wake up:There is no “progressive caucus” for chrissakes!When have they ever taken a stand.They always fold quicker than a 2dollar suit.
All the “BS” progressives won’t support anything without a robust PO is just that BS.
The quicker most get used to the idea then the heartache & betrayal would be easier to bear.
Why in heck it’s called “the progressive caucus” is in itself an insult.
and notice how the so called progressive caucus insults us.every single congresscriiter who supposedly belongs to the “Pro caus” before beginning their long winded sellout explanation “I am for the strong Public Option BUT”.
Then why did they vote for such a weak bill ?
Placing aside the poetic imagery in tribute to the Great Lakes region, I maintain that there is no excuse for the Stupak amendment, and that Stupak should be thrown out of office for what he did, or at least should be ostracized and attacked by the remainder of his party. That won’t happen (the political class takes care of its own first) but it should.
Stupidpak. How soon before his C-Street shenanigans get outed?
Is there any Republican who can possibly beat Stupak in UP?
No better evidence for the need for a 3rd party has ever been presented.
The Democrats are NOT our allies, and we need to start learning that.
That’s some damned fine writing there, Rayne.
Already done.
puppethead – I don’t know about dat, eh? you got Swedes and Finns, we got Finns, French, Poles and Germans. They all get pretty gawddamn grim under a couple hundred inches of snow along the north coast and double-digit below zero temps inland, combined with the lack of daylight north of the 45th parallel.
sfriendly (26) – apparently you didn’t actually read the full piece nor look at the research. There is no throwing Stupak out of office. But thanks for venting.
liblatte (28) – I’ll reiterate for your benefit: There is no Republican who wants the district.
I meant his sexual pecadillos that will discredit him.
Perhaps the district would want to join the 11ers?
Larue — there’s really no excuse in the day and age of the internet not to have a comprehensive body of knowledge for each and every district.
Congresspedia.com is an excellent start; you can see from some of the links I’ve provided that certain statewide blogs have tried to do this as well (although keeping them up over time has proven a bit challenging).
The people who live in each district are the very best resource; if we could meld what they know with a collaborative database on the internet, there’s no reason why research on every incumbent can’t be readily available.
As an example, just look at the stuff I linked above; it’s already on the internet. Just needs the next step, compilation in a database.
Um, sure. Go ahead and persuade them.
Rayne, I think this is one of the most important posts I’ve ever read…….yes, some place that really outlines who these congresscritters really are. I still remember sending money to Chris Carney….and wishing I could have my money back because he was not well vetted. There are others who seem to slip through. I’ll check out Congresspedia.com …. thanks for the heads up.
Jest grasping at straws.
OMG, quit calling them “pro life”! Even the journalists are learning not to play their game. They’re anti-abortion, they’re not pro life.
Screw it. Primary him anyway. Maybe we can’t unseat him, but I don’t agree that a primary challenge would be a waste of time and resources.
For one thing, it would force him to account for his amendment, publicly and repeatedly, and put real pressure on him not do try a stunt like that again. Primary challenges have a way of keeping incumbents in line; cf. Specter-Sestak.
Also, it would start a conversation among his constituents that badly needs to happen, even if it changes very few minds in the end.
And finally, he needs to pay for doing this. If we can’t unseat him, we can at least make him sweat and spend. Consider it a cautionary tale. If we let him roll us on this and don’t answer back, we’re just asking for any other Democratic Congressman to pull a similar stunt or worse.
I know it would take someone with a lot of time and money to blow. But I completely disagree that it’s a waste of time.
My bad, Dearie, Congresspedia changed names and I keep forgetting the new name. You can find them at OpenCongress.org.
And that’s for ALL members of Congress — plenty of opposition research material there, too.
And the important point is not that we should be miffed that some congressperson actually represents what his/her district stands for…..the point is that we need to know what each and every one of them stands for.
Okay, so primary them you say.
Who’s going to run against him?
Give me a name.
I’ll be waiting.
… and people still argue that religion is not a threat to a compassionate, egalitarian society. if you replace “catholic” with “asshole”, that statement makes perfect sense, but then the catholics will be at you all hurt and indignant.
In such a district there must be one other person in it who wants to represent it as much as Mr. Stupak and who has as good a life story. And who did not do what Stupak has done, to women, to Democrats and to progress.
It is also not necessary to beat him just to not help Stupak win, which I suspect many women and men are going to not do regardless, especially if the Choice question sinks the bill entirely or the law includes the Stupak Decree.
No politician is truly safe. The only question is are you willing to keep getting stupaked and let them collect their very nice salary and honors after or are you ready to at least try to stupak them right back.
Really good point. They aren’t pro-life, or they’d support health reform unconditionally.
Interesting. It MIGHT shoot some holes in what Inquisitr has me believing, that Stupak is a leverage chip to water down HCR.
He’s doin some MIGHTY bloviating, in that EW read, LOO HOO.
But that could be just for his ego’s sake, for his constituents, to make the charade look good.
So, is his amendment a real threat to Pro Choice IF IT STANDS? Or is it simply a bargaining chip that will go away in order to water down HCR while in conference?
Or, perhaps MORE scarily, can some form of Stupak STAND in a final bill that Obama would actually sign, and STILL be a chip to water down HCR in conference?
Any LARGE pro choice defeat at the hands of Obama’s Presidency will sink dem’s in ’10, and Obama in ’12.
They can’t be that stupid or short sighted.
Watering down HCR by USING a Stupak that goes away, however, could be parlayed as a huge dem win, and fool enough voters for wins in ’10 and ’12, all the while appeasing the deals with corp interests, bleeding the middle class dryer for their profits.
And of course, the Church and Bishops get tithing gifts from Corp Insterests as part of the whole deal.
Hard to tell what to make of it all, at this point. And I thought I was on the trail of something.
Kabuki Headache, time for dinner and some merlot!
Maddening, to sort it all out.
Wish I had one. I don’t know a damn thing about the area, or much about political organizing in general, sadly. But I definitely think it’s something we should keep talking about.
Name. Still waiting.
Give me a name of a potential candidate.
There’s money waiting.
Me, too.
So easy to say, “Primary them!” I’ve said it myself — especially when it comes to Tennessee. But even though I can come up with names in TN, I still can’t overcome facts on the ground or the backgrounds of the potential candidates.
But for MI-01, we’ll start slow. Just give me a name.
I don’t think it’s intended as a bargaining chip; Stupak is a real anti-choice misogynist and that’s his true motivation, he is not even a Blue Dog. Obama obviously wouldn’t veto a bill with Stupak in it, if that’s what you mean.
Pro-Choice folks need to prioritize reproductive rights a lot more; the one reason anti-choice ones have so much leverage is that they are willing to sacrifice other things for their anti-choice beliefs.
And that’s exactly why I wrote this post. Because I do know something about the district and the area, along with the candidate pool.
The way you control ticking time bombs like this is to make sure that they sit on Committees where they are not going to play the role of crypto-anti-abortionist. It was via his Committee membership that he was given an opportunity to fart at the table. It would be like putting a Creationist in the Education Committee, or a Christian Scientist on the Health Oversight Committee, or a Scientologist oversight on the FDA. You can’t prevent this sort of stuff when the other party does it. But you can when you are assigning memberships in your own.
Well, if you factor in a full time job, a hobby or two, a spouse and following a few choice informative blogs, adding that depth of research and time and factoring it into a personal commitment schedule is too much for me, personally.
However, I FULLY concur if your precept is that some org or group could compile it all, and create such a place with such information based on local inside info and details. No brainer! Money to be made, people!
So, I can take care of my back yard, but the blogs/orgs will have to coordinate info and marching insights for other districts, etc.
As you’ve well proven, a waste of time, staff and money,
*G*
I like this map of those who supported the Stupak Offendment.
When you can’t attack the “heartland” you look at the allies who brought it to fruition. I suspect that there are a few districts that are not gerrymandered to be so “safe” that this vote will not be useful leverage in a Primary.
I can see that, and I appreciate the work you put into it. I think it’s certainly valuable information to consider. But I still disagree that primarying him is a waste of time. We can’t just let something like this go if we can at all help it.
You think Obama would SIGN a bill that had Stupak in it?
He’d be cutting his own throat, and he MUST know that!
He’s gambling on trying to enable watered down HCR alone, to factor in a giveaway to anti choice forces, also?
Pure suicide, doncha think? I sure do.
This is NOT the time for a full front assault on women’s rights to choose, not with a recently proven HIGHLY energized prog/lib base that’s attracted independents and got the majorities in both chambers, and a dem in the WH.
The Pubs can’t WIN in ’10 with a frenziedly happy anti choice teabaggin fringe, and independents ain’t flockin to the anti choice side of political life to ditch the dem’s, not with a shit economy, and fresh memory of 8 years of Junior that screwed us all.
The dem’s know this, they would NOT jeapordize their prog/lib base, and hope to keep the indie’s, and STILL hope to win!!!!
Now, as to just what Stupak is, and how he’s playin or GETTING played, remains to be seen, I guess..
Like I said, I thought I was onto something. To believe that his amendment has ANY chance of surviving Senate, OR Conference hashouts for a final bill??? For me that’s just WAY too incredulous to believe.
Maybe I’m too naive, but it don’t seem time for Obama OR Congress to allow a full blown attack on women’s rights issues. It can’t POSSIBLY be politically expedient.
hey rayne– nice piece and, as a troll who still points at her hand when she asks, “where y’from?”, i agree. stupak’s staying where he is.
Excellent overview of the situation.
Are all of the denominations in the district unalterably anti-abortion? For example, ELCA’s official position allows diversity of opinion on abortion and they include the former Suomi Synod.
Has there been any recent polling on the abortion issue in this district? What is the breakout between pro-choice and anti-abortion sentiment?
so why couldnt a republican win in yooper-land?
hear hear. AND i offer, if a primary challenger weakened him and a republican or independant won, at least crooked, arrogant, corrupt ol’ bart would still be gone. leaving hope for the future. a first termer is easier to beat than an an entrenched, corrupt proffesional pol.
I live in Stupaks district and have talked to him many times. Raynes discription is very good. I live in the Northern part of the mit. Northern Lower Michigan had many of the Michigan militia people. Its conservative on social issues, yet many blue collar workers have located back North after retiring from the auto companies. Stupak is a social conservative, but economically liberal. Really the opposite of both parties traditional roles.
I don’t believe Stupak was as conservative when he was first elected as now. I put out signs for him in 1992 when he first ran. He owns the district. I have talked to many church goers and they all vote for him. Only the super hard core republicans vote against him. He wins by tens of thousands of votes especially in the Upper Peninsula.
I have lived here all my life and will continue to live here even if I disagree with many people. I have a hard time with many of the poorest districts economically always voting republican. It makes me sick. Median income is only $22,000 a year where I live. The republicans could care less about these people, yet many are still hard core because of the social issues. Educational attainment is lacking also because of brain drain.
Stupak is bringing money into the district. Hes fought for a new coast guard cutter, a new lock in the Saint Marys river, environmental cleanup money for the Great Lakes and is a hard core opponent of transfering or selling water from the Great Lakes. The district gets plenty of grant monies due to low income.
This district is big on hunting and fishing and of course he’s pro gun. He knows the district and gives it what it wants.
Have a good night.
i dont believe anymore that a bad democrat is better than anything else if you cant get a good democrat.
Looking at the limited information on the profiles:
Lindberg
Prusi
Gailliard
Definitely not Moore.
Well Obama has hardly stood up for reproductive rights when some semblance of political capital is at stake. Moreover, if Obama intends to veto a bill with Stupak, he would have already said it by now – most likely, before the vote. Obama hardly loses votes because most Pro-Choice voters will continue voting for Obama. The same goes for him not standing up for other progressive causes.
It was incredulous for many people that Stupak would pass, but sure it did. It seems to me that the only way to defeat it now is to have a solid Pro-Choice block to take the bill hostage (which DeGette has started). Also, if the entire health care reform fails due to the Pro-Choice block or (far more plausibly) Senate filibusters, of course Stupak is going to fail as well. Is it desirable? At this point, I’d say so.
Tarheel Dem — the Suomi Synod folks will be in the west side of the UP, traditionally more blue. But you still have to deal with folks in the eastern UP and northern LP who are more conservative. The district was intentionally drawn this way.
solerso68 – first, you have to find a Dem OR an Independent who want to run against a guy who can command 70% of all vote in some parts of the district. And then you’ll have to find a Republican who’ll want to do the same.
Drop a note here when you find those willing candidates.
It all sounds so very easy until you actually have to produce the candidate(s)…
northof55 — thanks much, appreciate it. I’ll be in your neck of the woods in a couple weeks for Thanksgiving and for deer season…I’ll wave on the way through.
they absolutely understand the need for culling. what they want to cull is a different story.
Prusi is the guy I think most likely.
Hold that thought.
I don’t think they’ve begun to consider how women feel about this.
Here’s a bit of history that occured in the UP that you never learned in school. The UP was once a bastion of left wing labor. Today it’s the Appalachia of the North.
http://www.angelfire.com/mi2/1913/
A good article, Rayne, and well worth considering. The key to making headway is to know what you can accomplish and what you clearly can’t. Much as it would be lovely to remove people like Stupak from office, if it’s not within our abilities we should look elsewhere. Think I’ve said that before, but it bears repeating.
Rachel Maddow just came up with a sweet talking point: she got his recorded statement about Mark Foley and how you ‘just have to warn the pages about the guy’ and something about people just having different lifestyles.
Yeah, so they do.
His coddling of Foley (to Rachel on Air America no less) may not go over very well on the homefront.
/foddling of coley
“Well Obama has hardly stood up for reproductive rights when some semblance of political capital is at stake.”
He doesn’t have to! There so far has BEEN no political capitol at stake on this issue!
“Moreover, if Obama intends to veto a bill with Stupak, he would have already said it by now – most likely, before the vote.”
He doesn’t have to say ANYthing now. He never does. And I guarentee, there will be NO Stupak on the bill Obama signs. There’s a bigger probability that either the Senate or House don’t pass the final bill before it gets to Obama.
“Obama hardly loses votes because most Pro-Choice voters will continue voting for Obama. The same goes for him not standing up for other progressive causes.”
Uh, IF Obama signs a bill with anti choice provisions WRT HCR issues, there will be a revolt of women, libs/progs and all the other groups clustered around civil rights issues and yes the gay communities will revolt, too. If Obama signs a watered down HCR bill, he might get away with it, and not have his base revolt on him.
“It was incredulous for many people that Stupak would pass, but sure it did.”
Because it’s a rigged and planned game and the WH/Rahm and the DNC and DLCC told the prog caucas in the House they’d lose campaing funding and support if they didn’t fall in line with this one. The Stupak amendment is how corporate owned DNC/DLCC/WH/Obama water down HCR, and STILL get re-elected.
“It seems to me that the only way to defeat it now is to have a solid Pro-Choice block to take the bill hostage (which DeGette has started). Also, if the entire health care reform fails due to the Pro-Choice block or (far more plausibly) Senate filibusters, of course Stupak is going to fail as well. Is it desirable? At this point, I’d say so.”
I concur readily with that. But until I see what Reid passes in the Senate, and then what comes out of final committee for a final bill, it’s hard to say what will happen. I maintain, the final bill presented to both chambers for a final vote will NOT have a Stupak bill, but will be the worst case watered down HCR bill possible.
We will lose a repeal of the anti trust exemption health insurers enjoy.
We will likely see an even SMALLER govt. plan and enrollee pool than the House bill presently provides for.
We will see a SMALL level of subsidy, likely 150% of poverty level, rather than 400%.
Mandates to HAVE insurance will be stronger, in some way.
Taxing those above $500,000 will be watered down.
Slashing Medicare, Medicaid, and eliminating S-CHIP is MORE than likely. But none of that takes place until ’13 so seniors and children won’t feel it till later down the line.
The denial of pre-existing sitch is not relevant, as NONE of the reform will take place until 2013, AFTER Obama’s re-elected. And by then the health insurers will have already found a way to get around any elimination of denial due to pre existing provisions.
I know I’m missing one HUGE component that’s likely on the chopping block in trade for eliminating Stupak, but I’m drawing a blank and too lazy now to go find it.
Anyhoot’s, those are my thoughts on your thoughts, time will tell what our reality will be, and I certainly wish YOU as well as possible in whatever outcomes we are dealt.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me and listening to mine.
We hope on. And we hold ALL their elected offal feet to fire, all the time, it’s how we roll!
*G*
Has Prusi been vetted for women’s issues (and not just choice)? Is there a default Yooper position on foreign policy?
Ishpeming is a nice place. Police chief there once helped me get a gas station open to fill up. Map on his wall showed where all the mine cave-ins were in town.
I’ll believe that when I see it. Most of those groups should be in revolt now, yet most are still quiet. Obama will keep them quiet, because at the end of the day they’ll tell themselves that if they stand up to him we’ll get someone even worse.
Going to take more than that, I’m afraid. Check the distribution of MSNBC in the MI-01 district. And then take a casual sampling of people in the district, ask them if they know who Mark Foley is.
Well, you could move from there to how progs/libs feel, I have to believe that’s just not true.
I firmly believe Obama and the Dem Party knows they will screw themselves if they enable anti choice legislation. They might be able to slog thru watered down HCR, but not anti choice provisions.
They can’t be that stupid. The blowback will be HUGE. Across the landscape. Maybe before the internet, before blogging, but not now.
‘Forces to be reckoned with’, at some point, we all are now, us progs/libs are.
Won’t take much to stir us up REAL HARD and kill the Dem Party in one election.
We may not have won this one, but it ain’t over, and as Mz. Hamsher, Norske, and many others have said all day today:
“We fought, we learned, and we are now smarter and better informed about the process.”
There’s still a Senate bill to wrap up, Committee or Chamber Reconciliation or what ever it’s called, and then another vote to be taken in both chambers, and presidential signing.
It ain’t over yet. We might not like what we get, but I doubt we’ll get anti choice provisions.
And if there’s ANY chance of this final bill failing in either Chamber for the final vote it will come from trying to ram THRU anti choice provisions! And if it fails, we get a do over!
*G*
If you can’t taste, smell and feel the tensions rising across all those groups I mentioned, you ain’t paying attention.
Waters nearing a full boil, hoss, and it won’t take much to tip the pot over and spill it all over the kitchen.
Just my personal belief that we are RIPE for some serious outrage that’s demonstrated publicly, and at the polls.
And we have 4 more steps to get thru, before we find out what the end of this passion play is all gonna be about.
Hang on, the ride’s JUST coming up to speed.
And then take a casual sampling of people in the district, ask them if they know who Mark Foley is.
I expect most don’t know, or care.
Excellent analysis, Rayne. Thank you for putting this together. There are 434 others in the House, though I bet precious few have the demographic or geographic challenges. It’s easy to cast off a Stupak as “not me,” another topic entirely to understand* where folk like this come from, what motivates them, and who votes for them.
*That I think I understand should not be construed as agreement. =)
LMAO – can picture that map and even smell that gas station. My grandfather owned a station when I was quite little, remember too, that he’d open it at odd hours for people. And it had a map on the wall, almost a ubiquitous decor in older stations.
No idea if Prusi’s been vetted. He’s a former miner, pretty gruff guy. As one political peep put it to me, “He’s a ‘salt-of-the-earth’ kind of guy, which some folks will find appealing.” Or he can come off as an asshole to those who don’t understand this about him. I met him this summer when I had to discuss a small legal matter regarding property in his district; he was a little off-putting, but then I was not somebody who looked or sounded like a Yooper.
Biggest and first obstacle is whether he’d want to run. He’s term-limited, so he might be ready. And then the next step is the money; he’d have to have a crew and at a very minimum $100K on hand by Jan. 1 to hit the ground running if he was going to do so for 2010. Not certain if he’d have to give up his seat to run, too.
What committees is he on? Waxman beat Dingell at E&C, right? So its not like the senate where it is permanent until the next session.
Seriously Rayne, I know you are trying to be realistic and all, but this is just depressing. There has got to be SOMETHING. Anything?
Gruff guy, eh. We could use some gruff guys on our side.
How many Yoopers would he need for his crew? One per county?
Great story hook. 2000 Yooper women mobilized to elect one gruff guy to Congress to defend choice. Yes, I’m getting ahead of the curve here.
Two likely reasons he wouldn’t run: (1) He’s a Stupak loyalist. (2) He doesn’t want to go to DC; it’s further to go than Lansing. Likes Ishpeming just fine.
Ah, Ohio…I used to live in Ohio, too. You folks have some very similarly unique situations in your state, from the more urban Columbus, the blue collar region around Toledo to Cleveland, farm areas north of the capital like Marion-Findlay, the area my Indiana family members call “Pennsyl-tucky” in the south/eastern portion of the state. There’s no one uber-candidate which will serve every district or region, no way.
Wish I could have made it to the Pumpkin Show in Circleville, or the Sauerkraut Festival in Waynesville. Good fun.
Well, yes, that would take a primary opponent who would make it into a talking point.
In the big picture, when it comes to committees, the guy we really need to “adjust” is Lieberman. I hold him responsible for the 3000+ dead of Katrina, whose deaths have gone unanswered. It’s a moral imperative in Lieberman’s case that he be removed from committees.
But in Stupak’s case, we may be cutting off our nose to spite our face. Can others do the job? Perhaps. But will they? That’s the tough part.
Here’s a sampling of Stupak’s performance on committees:
Rep. Bart Stupak questioning Martin re: broadcast ownership
Rep. Bart Stupak questions NebuAd CEO
Rep. Stupak Questions Witnesses On Rescission Triggers
Fourth Hearing on Food Safety: Stupak’s Opening
Hearing on Energy Speculation & Gas Prices: Stupak’s Opening
Hearing on FDA & Food Safety: Stupak’s Questioning
I’m sure you can find more examples like this; are we served by pulling this guy from committee chairmanships?
Well, i live in Da Yooper and i couldnt agree more with the Author of the thread and many that have posted.
Give it up. No chance of dethroning Stupak anytime soon. As in, he could probably hold this seat for the next 30 years. By him passing this ammendment, regardless of whether it passes in the final bill, has assured himself of keeping his seat in a very very Pro Gun And Pro Life Area. Just the facts. Mr Stupak represents his district. The only way for a democrat to hold this seat is if they are pro life and pro gun.
I know it sucks, but this is the truth.
In 2008 Stupak faced some of his toughest competition ever from Republican Tom Casperson
Stupak- 213,216 votes
Casperson- 107,340 votes
Give it up… He is bulletproof here until he kills a dozen puppies with his bare hands on C-Span.
:-)
What do you think the odds are that Tom Casperson will run again for the same seat?
Casperson has fairly low name recognition down state, I might add.
this is a boffo piece – the kind of backrgound info strategists and pollsters pay for
I saw a single reference to Stupak’s aspirations for higher office over at Open Left – what if anything have you heard about this ?
in case you missed it, Jeff Sharlett ominously warned of same in his Maddow appearance last night –
and thank you for your Shame On You! to Leadership – that my sister, is where my increasing anger lies
A commenter at DailyKos also mentioned Stupak’s possible interest in another office; they mentioned the governorship.
First I have heard of this. If he was going to jump in for the 2010 race, he missed the boat already. And at this point in time his current notoriety would be the immediate kiss of death for any such race.
WRT any interest in the Senate: might have been a possible contender for Levin’s slot if Levin was going to retire, but I have heard nothing about this either.
Stupak doesn’t have solid name ID downstate, and this situation certainly didn’t help make positive inroads. With 80 to 90%% of Dems in the state residing outside his district, he would have to do some serious work to overcome this barrier.
The really sad part of this entire situation is that Stupak is actually a very solid Dem with the exception of his anti-abortion values. He could have been relied upon to quietly deliver a vote, but ignoring him and the others like him for nearly six months is all it took to turn him into a tremendously divisive representative.
The “Democratic” affiliation of many in the Western UP is the legacy of mine owner abuses and union organizing in the early 20th century. With the near-extinction of the mining industry, about the only “Democratic” instinct left is support for government programs. The social conservatism trumps everything else.
Born and bred in western UP, once and future resident, and current temporary member of the diaspora.
thanks.
now without letting Stupak off the hook, Sharlett more than implied Pitts, a veteran anti choicer and well versed in parliamentary moves, had an awful lot to do with this – so again, Leadership couldn’t smell that rat ?!?!?
You got a profile handy on Pitts? I’m wrapped up in a project at the moment, but I’d love to learn more about Pitts.
Have a theory that Stupak has been a Trojan Horse for C-Street; trying to figure out the method of insertion inside the fortress besides general lack of attention. Stupak may not even be aware of his use as such a tool, simply doing what his Catholic values dictate — a blind cut-out, of sorts.
Somebody with strong parliamentary skills could make good use of such a tool, though. I genuinely think the Stupak Amendment went down Saturday on the voice vote, and that the parliamentary move was the call for a recorded vote. Did Stupak get coached or pushed on that?
Sorry, but back to the casseroles and church. It’s the same here in the Deep South. Our really disgusting alternative to casseroles, however, because resourceful cooks create new dishes from whatever’s in the cupboard at the time, is the congealed salad. Yes, congealed. It’s made from fruit-flavored Jello and anything you want to congeal inside it. The worst I’ve had was pineapple (I think, because it was yellow) Jello with marshmallows, pecans, and shredded carrots. But it’s welcomed at the home of the bereaved and people rave about whatever kind you made (the most popular is lime Jello with a can of fruit cocktail). As long as you write your name with a Flair pen on a strip of masking tape and stick it to the bottom of the Corning Ware dish (for casseroles) or Tupperware container (for congealed salads), you’re one of us.
Do they actually call it “congealed salad”?
I suspect because of the weather we don’t do Jello salads as much in the north country as in the south, although you will see them. Most often it’s red jello and fruit with whipped topping. Lucky you if you’ve suffered through a baby shower but manage to land a nice big piece of a Jello dessert heavily laden with fresh Michigan strawberries in June, or Michigan cherries in July.
If you’re a candidate, extend your personal brand by furnishing one thing predictably at these events. There was a certain state candidate here whose last name is the same as a particular fruit; they handed out big fat suckers/lollipops to the kids at all events they attended, in the flavor which matched their name. My kid said, “Pays to have a name like a fruit.” They’re right; they’ve never forgotten that candidate.
Thanks, I had forgotten about the Cool Whip often liberally dolloped on top. And, yes, we do identify it as “congealed salad.” Whether your attendance is required at a funeral, wedding and/or baby shower (modern times, you know), potluck on Wednesday night at the Baptist Church (or Methodist, I’m pretty sure they make it, too), you can count on some flavor of congealed salad right beside the fried chicken, ham, potato salad, and green bean casserole. Also, thanks for your pickle recipe a while ago. I lost my grandmother’s, and yours turned out very similar.
The Art of Jell-O
Thanks for that, ellie — heh, “hipsters doing jello shots” conjured up images.
Must say we do a LOT of jello shots here in north country. Especially frozen ones, like raspberry cream. They keep nicely when you’re out snowmobiling (although snowmobile drivers and jello shots do not mix).