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It’s that time of year again, wherein all kinds of talking heads make prognostications about the year ahead. Most of them are way off base, except for the few who are experts on a particular subject. Most are little better than astrologers and readers of crystal balls.
But what the heck, it looks like a fun gig. Let’s give it a whirl and see what kind of predictions we can make about the coming year. I’ll start with my own area of interest, technology; here’s what I think will happen in the year ahead.
- A little known technology company emerges to extend wireless across unlicensed bandwidths, with dramatic impact on the VoIP market.
- Existing wireless provider prices collapse by year end; a data plan supporting VoIP could approach sub-$30 per month.
- New reader devices which run on Windows and Linux platforms will emerge before end of 1Q2010 at the sub-$100 range; devices will have touch screens and limited wireless function. Models built on the Google Chrome O/S will surface before year end.
- Net Neutrality emerges from legislation, affected by fallout from health care legislation and the election cycle. Incumbents will be more concerned about lobbyists for telsatcos’ desires to squash new business models (where have we seen this before?).
- Commercialization of the "Sixth Sense" technology developed by Pranav Mistry will begin before 3Q2010, with a highly preliminary beta device for "dogfooding" phase by end of 4Q2010 developed by Google. Device will incorporate Google Books and other Search tools using barcode and OCR input as well Google Phone technology.
- At least one major scandal will be investigated and reported via collaborative internet-mediated citizen journalism as tradmed continues to flounder in pursuit of new business model.
Okay, that last one is a throw-away. Of course sharp-eyed citizens with solid skills in research and reading will outperform the floundering media. The real question is how many days, weeks or months will it be before a scandal breaks because of internet-mediated citizen journalism?
Now it’s your turn. And let’s take this seriously and see if we can outdo the talking heads. What’s your area of expertise and what do you think will happen in the year ahead?
17 Comments
BTW, the pic represents one of the early game changers of 2010 — although alleged leaks today suggest the impact will be much smaller than originally implied.
Don’t know how to break it to my teen that they aren’t getting a Google Phone in 1Q2010 after all…
If 2010 happens past the event horizon, then we’ll never know of it.
Well. at this point 2010 is figurative black hole if not a literal black hole. We can’t see into it; we can only hazard a guess as to what lies inside the perimeter of the period we refer to as 2010.
So what’s your guess?
I think Greece and hopefully Iceland stick to the IMF (ala Argentina) and show other struggling countries the way out of the perpetual debt trap, maybe even our own. I think there will be a sustained and organized push for a global reserve currency by emerging economies and some long-time industrial economies that will be pooh-poohed by the powers that be, but nevertheless, will endanger the stability of the US dollar. I think a barrel of oil will go over a $100 again but never go lower. A lot more poverty and deprivation in this country and around the world. Food shortages inside the US border (not major shortages, just the absence of products for a few weeks or a few months, showing that the various systems of distribution and production of food are starting to fray).
And marijuana legalized in CA, as the state goes utterly bankrupt.
My predictions:
1) Popular and other forms of modern music will continue to suck.
2) The economy will deteriorate significantly further.
3) A whole lot of people won’t vote in the 2010 elections.
4) The wars in Afghanistan will continue to be horrible, ugly mistakes.
5) The Supreme Court will get it mostly right as a matter of law, and congress will continue to be worthless.
4) The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will continue to be horrible, ugly mistakes.
whimperbang (4) — keeping in mind this was an exercise in predicting only 2010 events, what do you think will be the driver behind food shortages in the U.S.?
ART45 — you’re playing it awfully safe, aren’t you? Looks more like a retrospective of 2009 than any attempt to predict the future.
The Apple iSlate or whatever they call it – a touchscreen tablet computer from Apple.
Definitely a lot of chatter around that…I wonder when Apple will get smart and seed the internet with misinfo and pull off a real coup with an unexpected release?
How much of the chatter is actually designed to push back at the Google Phone buzz, too?
Rayne,
2009 isn’t a whole hell of a lot different from, say, 2000.
FWIW, I’ve believed for about 16 years that we’re in a New Dark Age, in which nothing much changes for the betterment of ordinary folks from year to year.
Obama gets backed into deficit-reducing measures, and as whimperbang notes, input costs will continue to rise and by the end of the year, the US economy is in a full-blown depression.
The American/Israeli attack on Iran coincides with protests, leading to Iranian claims that America is behind the protests, a savage crackdown and deaths of thousands of Iranians. Iran begins to attack shipping in the Gulf in an attempt to cause an oil shock by damaging trade. America begins a costly bombing campaign against Iranian cities and the Iranian state breaks down. By year end, Iran is a military dictatorship with its economy and infrastructure in ruins. The right starts to suggest that this would not have happened if the US had invaded as it had urged. There is talk of a draft to provide the manpower for the next war.
England win the World Cup. Well, a man can dream.
The conference report on the health insurance reform does not include a public option. Many thousands, millions of words are expended on it, but Pelosi twists some arms and a bill very similar to the Senate bill becomes law. President Obama gives himself an A. Jane Hamsher exhumes Ronald Reagan in protest. DKos votes her Cruella DaVil of the 21st Century. In low-turnout elections, the Democrats take a beating, obviously, and panicking Democrats shift further to the right. What I think people simply ignore is that the Democratic party as a whole is a centre-right party — reasonably socially liberal but economically far from the left — and it situationally adopts rightist policies whenever it can.
In the UK, New Labour are crushed in another low-turnout election, putting the Tories into power. They cut public spending savagely and the UK’s economy nosedives. The UK’s debt is downgraded by the end of the year and pundits begin to predict a 2011 default. At least we won the World Cup.
China and the US trade fire off Taiwan in a “misunderstanding”.
Financially, it’s a dark age where the average citizen in the U.S. can no longer aspire to a better life than their parents or grandparents. There’s already data to support this; believe a recent study showed that education levels have fallen for the first time when compared generation over generation.
However, being a tech geek, I think that technology has dramatically changed Americans’ lives over the same period. It’s not without upheaval, as the slow death of the traditional American newspaper proves. But we’ve entered a time when nearly any American can self-publish with few barriers. We’ve also entered a time when life expectency will change dramatically.
Which means we may have plenty of time to change the current status quo.
Our Government won’t work any better this year than last.
The Country and our people will be worse off at the end of the year than they are now.
The stupid Americans will put the Republicans back in power in 2010.
More jobs will go overseas, and more will be taken here by the illegals.
The National Debt will just continue to rise as nothing is being done about it.
We will pay more for almost everything we buy, and get less for our money.
We will spend another two trillion dollars or more to support all the Departments and Agencies that are supposed to protect us, while not being any safer only poorer.
A betting man would put money on that the terrorists will probably succeed in another attack.
In short we will all be just as fucked this year as we were the last.
So when are you leaving the country? I’d like to know how much time I have to organize a farewell party.
I’m not leaving, I’m going to stay here and watch people like You suffer in Your own stew.
Dude, your comments are redolent with your pain and suffering. I think you are projecting your own stew.
Precisely… bless their heart.