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Surfers have been heading to the beach and hitting the waves all day, in advance of Hurricane Earl’s arrival along the eastern seaboard tomorrow.
Folks from southern North Carolina to as far north as Massachusetts should be working on tying down anything loose, preparing an emergency kit and checking their emergency exit strategy. Earl is expected to reach the Outer Banks tomorrow evening around sunset, fueled by a full day of solar energy. As you can see from the map of tropical storm winds from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, Earl has quite a reach, so much so that the NHC has expanded watch areas:
GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK…THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD…AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WATCHES AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
Hope our east coasters are prepared; there’s plenty of places here on the "north coast" to get away for the holiday weekend if Earl has messed up your plans.
But maybe you’re in flyover country and don’t have to worry about Earl like our friends on the east coast do. And maybe you’re nowhere near surfing unless it involves snow. Earl offers a reminder that we should all be prepared and have a plan ready in the event that an emergency occurs at home.
Here in my part of flyover country, preparedness means plans and kits for tornado-y summers and blizzard-y winters. What about you? What kinds of emergencies are you prepared for? And are you packing up now for Earl?
Do tell.
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And yes, that’s another potential hurricane coming in Earl’s footsteps.
Her name is Fiona.
Crap. I hope the east coast gets better treatment from FEMA than the gulf did.
Here in Greenville, NC (not to be confused with Greenville/Spartanburg, SC) we’re on the alert. About 70 miles from the “inner banks,” where the westernmost shores of the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds narrow to the mouths of rivers called Tar and Neuse and Pamlico, Greenville is NC’s easternmost city greater than 50,000 in population (approaching 90K) and is home to the second-largest campus of UNC, East Carolina University.
Business in local grocery stores late yesterday was brisk. Most full-time residents keep plenty of candles, maybe a crank-up radio, and similar emergency needs on hand. But if Earl turns farther west than presently projected, many – me included – will hop on 264 and head for Raleigh.
I know I saw Albemarle Sounds NC on the list of locations NOAA included in their warnings, don’t remember Pamlico.
Stay safe! Keep us posted if you have access to the internet.
The hurricane warning includes the Bogue, Core, Pamlico, Croatan, Roanoke, and Albemarle sounds, and these line our coast south to north. The Pamlico is the largest lagoon on the eastern seaboard. From the link:
It’s a two-and-a-half hour ferry trip across the Pamlico from the “inner banks” to Ocracoke Island, which was evacuated yesterday, along with Hatteras Island to its north. (There are also two land routes far to the north.) Both of these barrier islands are part of Cape Hatteras National Seashore.
Thus endeth today’s installment of “More Than You Ever Cared to Know About Eastern Carolina Geography.” :)
Oh no, I love to hear geographic stuff! Keep us educated, keep us posted!
The latest advisory from our county’s development commission has us expecting just 20-30 m.p.h. winds and maybe a quarter inch of rain, although the National Hurricane Center is showing a 50-60 percent chance of tropical storm force winds (> 39 m.p.h., sustained for at least one minute) here, and an 80-90 percent chance of sustained 50 m.p.h-plus winds along the Outer Banks. The NHC’s 11 a.m. update is due at any moment.
Last night’s forecast — as you can see from the graphic — showed what to me looks like a wide footprint. 20-30 mph seems rather low given the spread.
Just wondering how much energy this will pick up today; if the waters are warmer than usual, well…
Remember, this graphic is more detailed than the typical Weather Channel thing. Each color relates to the percentage probability of the type of wind named in the graphic’s title, in the area that color encompasses. Greenville lies in Eastern NC within the yellow-to-gold area, and this chart is for Tropical Storm Force winds, so (using the color key at the bottom of the graphic) our probability of seeing TSF winds is between 30 and 60 percent. And the threshold for TSF is 39 m.p.h. sustained for one minute or more.
So, with the system’s pressure already on the rise and its Saffir-Simpson rating weakening (it’s now down to a cat three), I think local officials are guessing that the probability of meeting TSF criteria have declined. GUSTS of 39 or greater, sure, but on average, sustained winds of 20-30.
For contrast, check out the NHC’s Hurricane Force Winds probability chart.