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Perhaps we should get our priorities straight. While here on earth humans argue and quibble about all manner of things, the universe will fling a couple rather large boulders in our general direction tomorrow, and most of us won’t have any clue we were this close to getting clipped.
The two asteroids will travel inside the distance between the earth and the moon, according to NASA:
Asteroid 2010 RX30 is estimated to be approximately 32 to 65 feet in size and will pass within approximately 154,000 miles of Earth at 5:51 a.m. EDT Wednesday. The second object, 2010 RF12, estimated to be 20 to 46 feet in size, will pass within approximately 49,000 miles at 5:12 p.m. EDT.
This is a near-miss in terms of distance; the moon’s average orbit is only 238,600 miles from the earth.
The size of these asteroids falls well below the one kilometer threshold of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Survey program. It was determined that an object one kilometer in size or larger would pose a considerable threat if it were to impact earth.
Some reports indicate these asteroids were discovered only recently; NASA says these were spotted on the morning of September 5. The popular Sky and Telescope magazine gives no mention at all of these asteroids in its weekly Sky at a Glance report; StarDate by the MacDonald Observatory doesn’t mention them, either.
A glance around the internet suggests that the public has been given a mere 12 hours notice of a near-miss. How much advance notice will we get next time, and how close will the next asteroid, meteroid or comet-chunk be to our planet? Would answering these questions be worth more than a few million dollars we spend every year?
Yes, that’s millions of dollars. We spend a whopping $18 billion on all of NASA (pdf) — a real bargain — and the portion spent on near-earth objects detection is a paltry $4 million dollars a year.
One wonders how much damage a 20-foot wide asteroid might do if it hit a populated area, and how much we might be willing to pay for near-earth object detection after such an event. It’s rather like the disdain for volcano monitoring expense before the eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokul volcano this past spring.
58 Comments
Yep, despite our human travails, the loss of a USA Middle Class, our WORST human horrors committed upon others . . . it can end in the blink of an eye, should history not provide that OTHER means of leveling a playing field, the unsustainability of empire.,
Da Yucatan, By By Dino
Meteor Primer From Nasa
Who knows where our fate lies, individually, or collectively.
A whimper at the end, a fading flame of a candle, a burning of the land, a big bang boom.
We are not alone in the universe.
*G*
Ya got MY attention . . . lol
If a Yucatan Asteroid knocks off the biggest animals again, that could include us. But if a Comet hits, it might pollute the atmosphere to uninhabitable. That would be ironic, if nature did us in, after all the chances we’ve taken …
You know what else annoys me about this situation, besides the puny 4 million we spend a year which probably doesn’t buy but a couple handfuls of people and keep a telescope or two in operation?
We’re relying on unpaid amateurs to fill in the gaps. Some of the most important recent celestial discoveries were made by amateurs who received nothing but acknowledgement for their work.
And other very big swaths are being filled in by schools which have been under financial pressure because of the recession. In this specific case, these two asteroids were discovered by the Dept. of Planetary Sciences at the University of Arizona.
I hear ya, misguided priorities, across the spectrum of our lives.
It’s unsustainable, one way or the other.
Will we do ourselves in, or will Mama Nature’s Cosmos get us first?
We never know.
Although, probability tables likely point to US doing selves in, before The Cosmos does.
*G*
Those distances are really very close and some day there’s going to be one that doesn’t miss us. Thanks, Rayne. Science is so fascinating to me.
In my book, anything inside the orbit of the moon is a near miss that is WAAAAAAY too close for comfort. Perhaps in a couple of generations we will start to devote more than couch change to keeping track of actual potential existential threats like big meteor impacts. Maybe.
My “favorite” of the known close-calls is the 4581 Asclepius flyby that occurred in 1989 when a 300m asteroid intersected the Earth’s orbit exactly. Fortunately for us the Earth had moved on 6hrs before…
Don’t sweat it. On the other hand, if there was a really big one that hits like the one that put an end to the Cretaceous period 65 million years ago when the dinosaurs took it in the shorts, well you can just bend over and kiss your ass goodby. But for now no problem.
I am not being a jerk. I play a bit with my 11″ Celectron computer guided catadioptric telescope and even if we could detect a large mass approaching the earth, at this stage in our technology regardless of how much money we might spend there would be literally nothing we could do about it. As if we poor little bits of slightly evolved pond scum don’t have enough problems with Obama and the Republicans.
What are they made of rock will not be as dense as an asteroid with lots of iron in it Dense means heavier impact.
Actually there are at least two basic types of asteriods. Those made of iron and those made of igneous or metamorphic rock. There are the short period asteriods that come from the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter which is really the debris of an unfinished planet that was shredded by the incredible gravitational forces of Jupiter and the other gas giant Saturn. And then there are the long period asteriods, planetoids, from the Kupier belt which is outside of the obrit of the demoted planet Pluto. If you look at the moon on a clear night when the moon is not full, you can see the results of meteor hits billions of year ago when the moon was torn away from the earth by a body the size of Mars. And the dark areas on the moon are the dark ‘seas’ called ‘mare’ which are really the magma coming from inside the moon which hardened billions of year ago. And to think there are some fools who think the universe has only been around since Thurdsay at 10:30 AM in the year 4004 BCE. God must have loved the idiots since he made so many of them.
VERY interesting comment, for a lot of reasons.
This however, I got to ask, what’s your sourcing for this belief? The Moon is round, hardly a product torn FROM the Earth’s mass as it was forming, by the gravity of Mars, as it was forming.
Now you got me curious as to how moons ARE formed . . . despite of all my sci fi reading and astronomy courses (2 of them in college) I’ve never heard that topic addressed.
Spot on with the Asteroid Belt . . . there was a big planet there, between Mars and Jupiter that was either rendered and shredded by gravity forces or some OTHER cosmic impact event.
And it’s been a long time since anyone mentioned the Kupier Belt when I was around.
As I said, I’ll roll my dice that we do ourselves in before the Cosmos does.
Butcha never know, do ya.
*G*
BTW, in my comment @#1, I reference asteroid and meteor composition definitions.
You folks don’t read other folks linkies, do ya . . .
*G* :P
http://www.psi.edu/projects/moon/moon.html
origin of the Moon
PSI = Planetary Science Institute
at the bottom of the page is a link to the main page of the PSI
As the article you linked to implies, the miss by 4581 Asclepius in 1989 was a considerable 1.
If the Earth travels in a circle of circumference (2 x 3.14 x 93,000,000 miles) about the Sun in (365 x 24 hours), then in 1 hour the Earth travels more than 66,000 miles and in 6 hours, close to 400,000 miles, more than 1.5 times the Earth’s distance from its Moon.
There’s a reason I mentioned meteroid or comet-chunks in addition to asteroids; not-quite impacts of innocuous matter can produce enormous damage, as the remnants of the Tunguska event show.
It’s an event like Tunguska which worries me; it wouldn’t be big enough to remove all our cares, but big enough if in a populated area that it would create havoc on a scale we’ve not dealt with and are poorly prepared to handle (see Pakstan’s flood or Haiti’s earthquake aftermath).
Given how little we spend now on near-earth observation and the risks associated with impacts, I’d much rather spend tax dollars on more observation and better preparation than on defense, especially when there is so much waste in defense spending.
I think we could argue about a half-dozen different theories about moon formation here. Each has flaws, which is why even the prevailing theory mentioned at comment (13) is still just theory.
Oh well, can’t hate an asteroid. No fun there. Let’s move along……….
No, seriously, thanks for the heads up Rayne. I wonder if we’ll be able to SEE these things tonight. I sure would like to.
By the way, I’m with Doremus on that theory of the creation of the moon. What little I’ve read about it, that is.
Hey doremus, what an absolutely cool telescope it sounds like you have. I’d probably be out under the stars every night with a rig like that!
These near-misses seem far more significant than our lousy attempts at Empire.
You missed the first one, passed by this morning at 5:51 am EDT. The other one will pass by later today during rush hour traffic for easterners, well before sunset. I don’t think we’ll be able to see the second one…
Unless, of course, the second one hits another object and careens into earth, or gravitational pull is strong enough to pull it even closer than 49,000 miles. Then we might “see” it. Heh.
There is some misunderstanding about what doremus35 is saying @10 and the theory I cited @13. The idea is that a body the size of Mars, not Mars itself and not having to do with the gravity of Mars, smashed into Earth with a glancing blow and some of the the resulting debris (there was a lot of it) reached Earth orbit and ultimately coalesced (aggregated) into the spherical Moon.
Hi!
Regarding the shape of the moon today, I had the same question about its shape that you posed. The answer to the question seems to be that in order for the earth and moon to have basically a slightly flattened spherical shape as we see them today, they both would have had to be in a molten state sometime in the distant past.
Unless someone took a video, most of what we think about cosmology is theory.
The telescope is amazing. It’s a Celestron 11″ Catadioptric, which means that its primary mirror is 11″ in diameter and it uses both lenses and mirrors to create an image. It has folded optics which means the light coming through the front of the telescope ia bounced back and forth three times inside a 31″ length carbon fiber tube before the light then exists the back of the telescope through a hole. The focal length is 2800mm so if the optics weren’t folded the tube would have to be almost 10 feet long.
The telescope has a built in computerized memory of the sky from any given location on earth and at any given time of the year solar year. To find an object the telescope links to two orbiting government satellites and the satellites ‘tell’ the telescope’s computer exactly where it is on the surface of the earth, and when an object such as the moon is locked into the ‘scope’s’ computer through a relatively simple process, the telescope will track that object all by itself throughout the night almost perfectly. And the telescope’s ability to track any object literally all night allows a camera to be attached to the telescope and to a home computer and excellent pictures taken.
Rayne, sorry about the length of this description, but moving along, the problems with viewing in the city are light pollution, excessive build up of moisture on the front lense, and clouds and haze. I thought Kassandra might find this series of thoughts interesting.
Rayne, you do come up with the most interesting bits of news. Hadn’t heard about this at all.
Too bad we can’t watch it go by. Assuming,as you say, it does go by.
doremus (22) — actually, I’m a skeptic with regard to the use of video. There’s a lot that video, designed to capture visual content for use by the human eye, can’t really capture. I think we’ve also arrived at a point in our understanding of the universe where cosmology and physics aren’t really separate; they’re divided only by the degree of specialization its researchers choose in their endeavors. Witness the discussion about the various theories of earth’s moon formation — we are fundamentally having a discussion about physics at scale.
tejanarusa (25) — heh. Thanks. Guess that’s what happens when a geek girl looks through the news, totally different filter on board here.
Oh, and don’t apologize, it would be wonderful if you thought about posting from time to time about celestial objects and events you see with your telescope. If you take pictures, I’d be glad to help you with posting them.
http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=1dkHvK2RUtI&feature=related
http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=cTO3ine4Kp4&feature=related
Here are the 1st 2 parts (of 5 total) the History Channel ran on the universe’s biggest explosions. Each part is 10 minutes.
#10 Yucatan impact
#9 Borealis basin on Mars (covers about 40% of the planet’s surface, 5300 x 6300 miles)
#8 Big Splat = formation of Earth’s Moon
#10 and #9 are on the 1st video. #8 is the 1st half of the 2nd video.
The 1st video will help you get your bearings and talks about, for example, the Comet Shoemaker-Levy impacts on Jupiter, kinetic energy and how to determine it, and the scale of these explosions compared to atomic weapons. These are in increasing order of magnitude: 8 is bigger than 9 which is bigger than 10.
I’m not an expert in this subject matter, but I don’t believe that asteroids that small would ever penetrate the atmosphere. They would burn up and disintegrate long before they hit the ground, rather like a shooting star.
There is, however, the Tunguska Event on June 30, 1908 @ 1335 GMT to consider.
Sorry, Rayne.
Was reading back through the comments after posting my comment and link to Tunguska @ 29 and just saw your link to it at @ 15. I should have read the comments first.
Let’s not forget the Oort Cloud. Many scientists believe it is the source of Halley-type comets, the Centaurs, and Jupiter family comets.
BTW, the Permian-Triassic extinction event, which is largest known extinction event, occurred approximately 251.4 million years ago. 96% of all marine species and 70% of all terrestrial species were extinguished. Although many scientists believe it was caused by a continuously erupting chain of volcanoes in Siberia, called the Siberian Traps that formed a two-million square kilometer flow of flood basalts, the majority of scientists now believe that it was caused by a comet impact.
No problem at all. Happens to the best of us.
Yeah, Tunguska is the model that scares me; it’d be nice to think that small objects would burn up before impact, but what if they do like Tunguska? We have little to nothing in the way of information about the mass which devastated the remote swampy Russian woods more than 100 years ago — how do we know these latest objects and others to follow won’t be like that one?
I guess I’m having a conversation with myself, but it beats burning books or talking about the stupid people who want to burn books. Sigh.
I forgot to mention that over a period of many hundreds of millions of years a significant extinction event has occurred every 27 million years.
The reason for this curious regularity is unknown.
I like to think of the significant extinction events as the Great Reboots.
“I forgot to mention that over a period of many hundreds of millions of years a significant extinction event has occurred every 27 million years.”
My reading indicates that many scientists think that we are presently in another great extinction event. Of course, my statement begs the questions of exactly who or what is killing everything this time around.
Of course, it could also be said that the Democratic party is presently experiencing a significant extinction event. And I think most people would not blame climate change for this one. Or perhaps they would blame political climate change. The evidence available at this time does not seem to support the theory that the Democratic party will last another 27 million years. I will project and guess that the extinction will being in November 2010 and be complete by 2012. But then again I could be wrong: it is just a theory.
Hey, it looks like astronomers did capture some shots of the first asteroid this morning.
Unfortunately I think somebody got the time wrong somewhere. Not certain how the time Wired’s article (link above) 12:45 am local time Italy can be right if the estimated flyby time given previously was 5:51 am EDT. One of these two times isn’t accurate.
It isn’t a matter of whether it will happen. It’s a matter of when. I know there is a group of scientists who study impacts by comets and asteroids. They came up with probability estimates based on categorizing the impacts by size, effects, and frequency. Because of the lack of sufficient indisputable evidence of impacts due to large oceans, subduction of the ocean floor, and the erosion of visible features on land, the predictions are pretty loosey-goosey. Nothing imminent, but I wouldn’t bank on it. At least there is an effort to look for potentially threatening objects and some thought about what might be done to alter their path to avoid a collision.
Blowing up an object that is over a kilometer in diameter might exacerbate the potential for harm, if it creates several hundred smaller but still dangerous sized chunks that, for example, go into decaying orbits around the Earth and rain down a chunk or two at a time over a period of many years causing extreme harm each time. Although chances are that most would fall into the sea, they likely would produce enormous tsunamis that would wipe out coastal areas.
Surfs up! Gotta go.
I hate to watch suffering. Perhaps the cowardly Democrats should adopt euthanasia as their motto for 2010.
Given the extent to which homo sapiens sapiens has ravaged our mother Gaia, I would not be surprised if she retaliated to defend herself and all other living things.
we’re giving her no choice
Just a minute I just had a capitalistic inspiration. Let’s corner the futures market for sack cloth and ashes. And then when the event happens, we will have a monopoly and can make a real killing (I winced when I wrote that). Imagine making a killing on an extinction. Sounds like predatory capitalism at its very best.
You should consider changing your screen name to Dr. Strange-bo.
I like your “predatory” sense of humor.
Funny you should mention that. I already changed my name once. Do you really think my parents named me doremus35.
Great fun! The best to you and yours.
Well, I guess Asteroid #2 has come and gone. Time to break out the tequila.
I didn’t know they were discovered by a Latino astronomer. I just hope the next few are discovered by a Scottish astronomer.
Alright, the next one we’ll name for a Scottish explorer and break out the single malt.
Assuming we can have a nip before the bloody thing hits us…
Popping by again to say, thanks for the link to the photo, and for your own special filter. I, too, am sick of thinking about the people burning books. Love your filter.
Oh, dear. I have my own thread of geekiness – I have now been wandering among the Russian links on the wiki article on Tunguska that you linked to. Such geeky fun for a one-time Russian major (somewhere in there was where I first heard of Tunguska, I think.)Thanks again!
I assumed they did, little brother, since mine back at the Borg named me doremus 29.
You are from the Borg aren’t you?
All of us here are from the Borg.
Be afraid, if you aren’t.
We’re coming to take you away, ha-ha.
We’re coming to take you away, hee hee
To the funny farm
Where life is happy all the time,
Ha Ha, Hee Hee.
Ok. We will name the next asteroid Glenlivet. And yes he was an extremely famous Scottish explorer. He discovered the beer back. And for that world shaking discovery his name has been immortalized in song and legend.
And if you develop a close relationship with Mr. Glenlivet, you won’t even know or care if or when it hits.
Anyone have dental floss?
I need it to get rid of the peat when I partake of Laphroaig.
Don’t wanna become a preserved bog dude.
That would be a PBD which, if I might be so bold as to suggest, is closer to God than a POS.
First that should be a borg dude my fellow cyborg. And second I have to take care of something until about 8:30 PM PST. But, I love laugh riots and it looks like one is taking place on this post and I don’t want to miss a thing. So if you power down for a while, I’ll be back and resume this epic adventure in the kingdom of the Borg and discuss peat and bog guys. By the way, Laphroaig was an excellent choice.
Wish I could, but I’m fading fast on CST in western KY.
Buenas noches.
Got your drift doremus29. Tomorrow is another day and it will once again be a pleasure to talk to another cyborg in our series. You know we are the most advanced series that Kirk and Spock ever had to deal with. But that is a tail for another time. May the force be with you.
Enjoyed the post Rayne. Whew, that was lucky.
Great post on a subject I’ve wondered about since I caught Ms ET, after she wandered away from the close orbit of Peter Ward, back in 1974. Peter’s one of the most brilliant experts on what happens if little bits of rock like the two referenced in Rayne’s post – or larger ones – actually do hit.
That is an extraordinary video. Thanks for linking.