Update: DeLong explains Krugman to Mankiw

I was planning to write a post about George Will’s absurd column claiming that America’s health care system is working just fine. The rich and fully covered Will writes that the best reform is to leave it alone.

Anyone who thinks that our health care system is okay is simply too selfishly rich to care about everyone else, just not paying attention to the mounting horror stories, or being disingenuous. Take your pick.

Will already blew his credibility on this topic last week, and today he starts his argument by relying on Betsy McCaughey, a discredited shill for Big Pharma who openly solicited Pharma’s business by appealing to their desire to kill genuine reforms.

It’s another thing entirely when a Harvard Economics Professor, Greg Mankiw, warns us of The Pitfalls of a Public Plan. Mankiw asserts the public plan will be so heavily subsidized by the government as to drive private insurers out of business, which would be bad.

Scarecrows don’t usually debate Harvard economists, at least not successfully, but I remembered Paul Krugman, Brad DeLong, and others have often expressed dismay at some economists, in particular about what they call "the Great Ignorance" — revealed during the stimulus debates — of prominent economists forgetting or not knowing what their predecessors figured out decades ago.

Mankiw begins from the premise that we have many competitors and no competitive problem in the current insurance/provider industry, and that we wouldn’t think of adding a public grocery store to compete in the grocery business. Thus, the Harvard man concludes, introducing a government sponsored and likely subsidized health plan would produce worse results once it inevitably became the monopoly – higher prices, shortages, rationing, etc, not to mention having Obama come between you and your non-socialist doctor.

I respect good economists, having worked with several excellent ones, especially ones who accurately describe the market they’re analyzing. But Mankiw didn’t mention that numerous studies have shown the health insurance industry is so highly concentrated that the top two or three insurers control a huge share of the market in virtually every state. Studies also show that prices are not set by efficient competition but instead by a dominant price leader, just as economic text books would predict.

These very relevant conditions would mean the current system without the public option leads to lower quality and/or inadequate coverage and higher, uncompetitive prices, exactly the conditions we have today but which neither Will not Mankiw notice. Those conditions might also explain why several advanced countries have some variation of a government-sponsored national health care system that covers everyone and does so with equal or better care at only half to two-thirds the cost we pay.

To a scarecrow, these seem like important data. But in describing the current system, and comparing it to grocery stores, Mankiw doesn’t mention any of these facts.

Nor does he mention companion proposals for government oversight and regulation of the exchange, which would set the qualifications for all plans and the market rules in which the public plan and other options would be offered. This makes sense because once you acknowledge the facts Mankiw ignores, you’re left wondering if this is a competitive market or something that most textbooks recognize as requiring significant regulation to ensure quality, adequacy and sustainable prices. Mankiw doesn’t assume any of that, nor does he acknowledge any of the documented abuses that spring from the perverse incentives inherent in the current for-profit system.

Fortunately, Paul Krugman had similar concerns, but expressed them more clearly, and after all, he’s a decent economist. In Health Care is Not a Bowl of Cherries, he responds to Mankiw:

Both George Will and Greg Mankiw basically argue that we don’t need a government role because we can trust the market to work — hey, we do it for groceries, right?

Um, economists have known for 45 years — ever since Kenneth Arrow’s seminal paper — that the standard competitive market model just doesn’t work for health care: adverse selection and moral hazard are so central to the enterprise that nobody, nobody expects free-market principles to be enough. To act all wide-eyed and innocent about these problems at this late date is either remarkably ignorant or simply disingenuous.

Those who follow Krugman, DeLong and other economist blogs know that in several posts over recent months, Krugman and DeLong have been rolling their eyes at economists succumbing to talking points and what they call "The Great Ignorance."

But now Krugman is pointing out that the Great Ignorance has joined forces with the Great Disingenuous, and together they form the basis for the Republican/industry arguments for protecting the status quo, and those who profit from it, and against reform.

More
Health Reform Watch, The Unconventional Economics of Health Care and The Rationing Scare
Yglesias, Canadian Conservative defends single-payer national health care
NYT editorial, Insurance company schemes
TPM, Good summary of the HCAN study of industry concentration