TPM’s Brian Buetler reports that the House leadership is scheduled to release its health care reform bill at 2:45 p.m. Eastern.

This is a hopeful sign that the House is ready to move the bill to markup later this week, even though they still face objections from Blue Dogs (and all Republicans).

No one expects all of the Blue Dog’s contradictory objections to be overcome, but AP reports ongoing negotiations after House leaders and the White House met last night with Blue Dog reps.

Obama met with a Blue Dog delegation on Monday evening, and Rep. Henry Waxman of California, one of the committee chairmen involved in drafting the House bill, sat down with them separately.

Rep. Mike Ross, D-Ark., head of the Blue Dogs’ health care task force, said later that some of the group’s concerns were being addressed — but not enough so they could support the House measure without further improvements.

. . .

He said that in one concession to the Blue Dogs, Democratic leaders have indicated that they’re increasing the size of the exemption for small businesses from a requirement for employers to provide health care to their employees. The exemption is expected to increase from businesses with payrolls of $100,000 to those with payrolls of $250,000, Ross said, which he characterized as "probably not enough."

As Cohn, Volsky, Klein, and Yglesias have noted, the Blue Dogs claim to seek lower costs but propose changes that would likely increase federal costs. But part of their thrust could actually improve the bill.

And as Jonathan Cohn notes, Blue Dogs want to strengthen federal regulatory institutions that can induce long-run reforms in payment incentives and practices by doctors and hospitals. Many believe this is the key to getting long-run reductions in health care costs. So it’s something the House Leadership should be embracing.

And the bill can reinforce these incentives by insisting on a public plan that provides a model for how insurer payments to providers encourage more efficient health care. A recent Commonwealth Fund study showed a public plan could produce $1.2 to $3 trillion in cost savings if done right, far more than a similar preliminary finding by CBO.

In other words, if the Blue Dogs are sincere, and not just obstructing reform,, there’s a logical deal between the leadership, progressive Dems and Blue Dogs, if they can work this through.

The bill will allow tens of millions of currently uninsured people access to Medicaid and/or obtain subsidies to pay premiums to obtain insurance, including the public option. To help pay for this, Congress wants more contributions from businesses — either provide insurance at work or contribute to the fund to cover the costs of expanded Medicaid and subsidies. And we’ll also need higher taxes from somewhere.

Requiring businesses to "play or pay" is likely to have some impact on employment — as this CBO report explains. Thus, Congress has to make difficult tradeoffs in a system that relies on employer-based insurance for 60 percent or more of its citizens. So solutions, like a robust public plan, that allow us to move away from the employer-insurance linkage should be encouraged.

The concession Blue Dogs got exempts more "small businesses" from having to contribute, but that just means we’ll need to get revenues from somewhere else if we want to expand coverage to the uninsured. If small businesses and low-middle-income folks shouldn’t be taxed more, then the Blue Dogs are strengthening the argument for the House proposal to tax the wealthiest individuals — exactly what the Leadership is proposing to phase in starting in 2011. [That approach is endorsed by 58 percent in a recent poll. (h/t Wonk Room)]

The Senate negotiators don’t like that idea, but the fact the House includes it just adds to the pressure Obama is putting on Baucus‘ Committee to come up with a funding proposal this week.

More:
Brad DeLong, Fear of health care reform