Paul Krugman has a must read column, Fiscal Scare Tactics, on the irresponsible and harmful fear mongering over the federal budget deficit.
The deficit threatens economic recovery, we’re told; it puts American economic stability at risk; it will undermine our influence in the world. These claims generally aren’t stated as opinions, as views held by some analysts but disputed by others. Instead, they’re reported as if they were facts, plain and simple.
These aren’t the facts.
. . .
To me — and I’m not alone in this — the sudden outbreak of deficit hysteria brings back memories of the groupthink that took hold during the run-up to the Iraq war. Now, as then, dubious allegations, not backed by hard evidence, are being reported as if they have been established beyond a shadow of a doubt. Now, as then, much of the political and media establishments have bought into the notion that we must take drastic action quickly, even though there hasn’t been any new information to justify this sudden urgency. Now, as then, those who challenge the prevailing narrative, no matter how strong their case and no matter how solid their background, are being marginalized.And fear-mongering on the deficit may end up doing as much harm as the fear-mongering on weapons of mass destruction.
Last year, during the debates over the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act ("stimulus bill") so-called "centrist" Democrats and Republicans, including Evan Bayh, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, forced major reductions in the economic stimulus because of misplaced fears we shouldn’t increase budget deficits.
The result was a stimulus package that was only half the size responsible economists said was needed to make a sizeable dent in the projected unemployment levels. Then the unemployment levels got even worse than Administration forecasts, so today we’re left with 10 to 17 percent unemployment and only modest reductions expected over the next several years.
The misguided demands by centrist Senators hurt the country. They needlessly left millions of people unemployed; they forced budget-strapped states to lay off more teachers, firemen, police and public health and safety workers and to curtail or end important public services. They postponed needed investments in public infrastructure at precisely the time when that investment would be cheapest and do the most good.
And yet when President Obama spoke to Senate Democrats on Wednesday, one of the designated questions came from clueless Evan Bayh, wondering what the President and Congress should do to get those awful deficits under control. Unfortunately, the President gave the stock answer that he inherited most of the deficit, while part was necessitated by the recession and he’s working to fix the rest. All true, but he should have told Bayh to get a grip and then addressed the misconception, explaining why we need more, not less deficit spending now to achieve not just a "statistical recovery" but a human recovery.
The conservative, anti-government campaign to create fear about budget deficits has been relentless. It has been fostered by the Peterson Institute, founded by a billionaire whose goal is to slash Social Security. It’s become the favorite scare message of the Republican party and, as Dean Baker keeps pointing out, it’s been pushed dishonestly on the front pages of the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal. Krugman concludes:
The main difference between last summer, when we were mostly (and appropriately) taking deficits in stride, and the current sense of panic is that deficit fear-mongering has become a key part of Republican political strategy, doing double duty: it damages President Obama’s image even as it cripples his policy agenda. And if the hypocrisy is breathtaking — politicians who voted for budget-busting tax cuts posing as apostles of fiscal rectitude, politicians demonizing attempts to rein in Medicare costs one day (death panels!), then denouncing excessive government spending the next — well, what else is new?
The trouble, however, is that it’s apparently hard for many people to tell the difference between cynical posturing and serious economic argument. And that is having tragic consequences.
For the fact is that thanks to deficit hysteria, Washington now has its priorities all wrong: all the talk is about how to shave a few billion dollars off government spending, while there’s hardly any willingness to tackle mass unemployment. Policy is headed in the wrong direction — and millions of Americans will pay the price.
Update:
NYT: Jobless rate down to 9.7%, but revisions to previous months show deeper recession that thought.
Update II: Need a picture of the unemployment problem? See this.
More:
Brad DeLong, When will it be morning in America? (unemployment projections graph), and Barack Grover Cleveland Obama
Harold Meyerson, A jobs lesson from the New Dealers
Baseline Scenario/James Kwak, Budget Sense and Nonsense
Paul Krugman, Romer and Bernstein on stimulus



29 Comments




Every time I hear Obama comparing the US budget to your typical American family budget I realize he just does not get it. This comparison is easy for your average voter to grasp but your average family cant print money in the basement or affect interest rates. Instead of educating the public on the defecit and why we need to stimulate the economy Obama plays right into the republican trap they laid for him. Instead of whining about the defecit he inherited he shld present the voting records of all the republicans who voted to increase the defecit when the republicans were in control, but, that wld not be something someone with his gentle nature cld do I guess. He looks like a fool constantly begging people who want his blk ass to fail to work with him.
The problem is that Obama embraces that misconception. There is a basic contradiction between Obama as superb communicator and the notion that he can’t express his ideas on subjects like the deficit. The reason Obama doesn’t put Evan Bayh down is because he agrees with him. I keep saying that if you look at Obama as a Blue Dog corporatist Democrat, his actions take on a far greater consistency than trying to square his conservative deeds to his progressive words.
I should point out too that what Krugman is saying now on deficits is what we have been saying for weeks. And yes, Krugman was for a bigger stimulus as were most of us here. –Although my recollection is that even Krugman’s estimates were too low at the time.
krugman’s column also contains this statement:
as far as i’m concerned, krugman is part of the problem when it comes to deficit fear mongering because he continues to make his arguments in the context of a conservative frame on fed deficits.
for an excellent take down of this conservative frame, including how krugman and the center for american progress are furthering it and not a progressive frame, i highly recommend billyblog’s recent post: When you’ve got friends like this … Part 2 (actually i recommend billyblog as a daily must read — an aside: why do progressives read neoliberal economists instead of progressive economists?). here are a few bits from the post, including the first and last paragraphs:
oh, and here’s randy wray (yikes! another progressive economist) with an idea for an end run around the deficit terrorists in congress (from november): Why Congress Should NOT Increase the Government’s Debt Limit
IIRC, Krugman was saying, “okay given your projections for GDP, etc, here’s what your stimulus should look like, and you’re way short, while cautioning the projections could be worse. When they in fact turned out to be worse, he updated what he thought the stimulus should be/have been. DeLong was tracking this too, as were others. So the critics’ argument went: given your forecasts, the stimulus is too small; and now your forecasts are seen to be too optimistic, the shortfall is even worse.
Yet all of the so-called centrists who decry the budget deficit, seem to have never met a weapons system they will vote against.
Nor a war for that matter.
War is good business. Maybe not for soldiers or taxpayers but for a lot of major campaign contributors.
And just as inevitable as the WMD train running down the tracks.
Incorrect. Fear-mongering on the deficit will do MUCH more harm to Americans than fear-mongering on WMDs.
We are simply losing the war of public perception and I don’t see a way to reverse course at this point. Just as the media is this weekend working overtime to mainstream the teabagger crazies, we have been caught up in our own fear of fighting back, as a party and and a philosophy.
Our enemies NEVER acknowledge that anything we say is right, show no respect to us or our ideas, and they fight to win, while we bend over backwards to show respect to their opinions no matter how outlandish or wrong, we try repeatedly to come to consensus by betraying our own values, and we fight to have a draw and call it “everyone wins. . . something?”
So now the big snowstorm refutes global warming, health insurance reform becomes socialist naziism, and deficit reduction becomes the answer to all economic downturn prayers. They could convince (and actually have convinced) most Americans that up is down and white is black if they try. We argue about the shades of gray while honoring their concept of opposites.
It confuses the hell of voters and lets their message win. Every time. Unless and until we come to the PR fight armed and ready to fight on their terms, the conservo-publicans and their massive media machine will win every time. Krugman could’ve hit this before their narrative had cemented itself in America’s collective mind and the Democrats started echoing it. Digby did. A long time ago.
And I’ll just bet countries like Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Japan, the UK, etc. had their Krugmans telling them “don’t worry, be happy” as they borrowed themselves into the sewer. You can’t “stimulate” your way out of a credit bubble collapse. They only way out is the long hard slog of deleveraging. Interfering with that process will only makes things worse (c.f. Japan).
What would the budget deficit have been without the stim?
My memory is more along the lines that Krugman’s own projections were too small because he didn’t take into account new entrants into the job market. So you would need jobs to make up for those that were lost plus those needed to keep up with population growth. And of course as eCahn kept hammering away, un- and under employment were much worse if you looks at the U6 number.
EU countries that use the euro are, i think, a completely different story because they are not monopoly issuers of their own currency.
Just sent you email.
Actually that isn’t a slog. It’s a depression. Andrew Mellon promoted a similar idea to Herbert Hoover:
Deleveraging is important, as is a fair amount of debt repudiation. But Keynes was right that in depression conditions, the government is the only game in town, the only one who can increase aggregate demand and power economic expansion by putting people to work.
Book Salon up at the Mothership with John Perkins’s Hoodwinked: An Economic Hit Man Reveals Why the World Financial Markets Imploded–and What We Need to Do to Remake Them hosted by Marcy Wheeler
at another computer, give me a bit……
ygm
Face it–the White House has said their focus will be on deficit reduction this year, and that’s how it will be. I hope we don’t wind up in a double dip recession/depression, simply because the Republicans would make political capital out of it and win even more Congressional seats than they are likely to anyway. None of these progressive economists are being covered by mass media or being heard by the average American family, and nothing is going to change unless or until things get very much worse. Even then, I doubt anyone is going to listen because the Republicans will be back in control.
And yet the demcong couldn’t scream loud enough about the “Reagan deficits” and the “Bush deficits.”
Which is it?
Good deficit? Bad deficit?
Intellectual dishonesty? Or just stupid?
Seems to me that the hollering was mainly showing the hypocrisy of the Republican perspective that only Democratic deficits matter. Or at least, many of the complaints were about the uncontrolled boondoggle spending on war pork like the Star Wars program that wastes billions every year.
Exactly. And here is Dennis Kucinich telling us how to do it—by pummeling a K street phony:
http://crooksandliars.com/logan-murphy/dennis-kucinich-pummels-doctor
I’ts not like we don’t know how. We cannot let these phonies frame the debate with their rudeness and arrogance. Time for some assertiveness of our own, please.
The fed is secretly wiring trillions into secret accounts and if there is no-one except the few that know where it is going,its like it doesnt exist.
What would happen if Bernanke wired say,50,000 dollars into every bank account in America?
The major threat to the US economy is not the budget deficit, but the part of the budget deficit spend on the Dod and foreign wars.
I’d prefer to see that expense become and investment in the US, as education and infrastructure.
Currently, other than providing massive government subsidised employment, that money is wasted, and contribes to our insecurity by generating millions of enemies.
Frankly, I don’t believe a single thing that comes out of this government. Not…a…single…thing. All of it is propaganda
My question is still the same.
Have You heard either Obama or Krugman suggest any way to solve the problem?
Personally I think a Republican tax would be the way out, they created the crisis’s and most of the debt and deficits, corporate welfare, and the unpaid for Wars.
So why not make those who caused the problem pay for what they did.
We might also ask the Republicans in the Congress to donate their salaries to make up for their actions.
Ah! No one responcible ever does the paying in this Country.
It’s the Shock Doctrine.
Harmful fear mongering over the federal budget deficit?
Tell that to your grandchildren.
Some people just don’t get it.