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I’ve seen a number of stories on the horrific heat wave that’s baking the Eastern seaboard, and they usually mention electric utilities struggling to keep up with rising electricity demand as everyone turns on their air conditioners. But the stories are a little confused about what’s happening.
It’s true that summer heat waves push electricity demand higher and require more supplies. In the extreme, there could be shortages. But that almost never happens, and we’re not close to that yet. A typical local story for New York City reports that the local utility, Consolidated Edison, is asking everyone to "conserve," especially during the hottest afternoon hours (usually 4:00 to 7:00 p.m.), and they want everyone to realize that electricity demand peaks when everyone keeps opening their refrigerators and turns on their air conditioners.
The worst conditions occur when these heat waves persist for several days, when peak demand gets worse every day. That’s when the system becomes most stressed. Tomorrow’s forecast is for more of the same, but we may get a little relief by Thursday and Friday.
In the meantime, besides looking out for each other, what should we worry about?
Just looking at a few sites, it doesn’t look like we’re in any danger of imminent supply shortages — that is, we seem to have more than enough reserve power supplies available to meet the highest forecasts of peak demand. That’s partly because we’ve built extra supplies (power plants) and better demand-response mechanisms in recent years, and partly because the transmission system is highly interconnected and is operated on a huge regional basis.
Literally thousands of powerplants are feeding power into the Eastern US electricity grid at every moment, as though they were all filling the same bathtub, while every consumer in this vast region is drawing power out of the same pool. We’re all in this together.
So it’s not as though ConEd has to cover New York City’s demands all by itself, although it can. At any given moment, power needed to serve New York state or Philadelphia or Boston is coming from all over 20-30 states and Canada. And right now, the combined regions in the East — and the regional system operators that match supply and demand every minute and coordinate with each other — have more than enough reserves to keep the lights on through even a very bad heat wave. It would take simultaneous breakdowns at several large generating stations to change that.
So are we home free? Not quite. Transmission and distribution lines can still overload or suffer outages, and that can create local problems for a town or just your block. And when everything is running flat out, key long-distance transmission can reach its capacity and thus limit the ability to move all the power we’d like from one region to another.
I checked the web sites for the New England ISO, New York ISO, and PJM system operators, and they showed substantial transmission congestion today on lines connecting "western" parts of the Eastern Interconnection (e.g., Western PA, Ohio, all the way to Illinois) and the eastern seaboard. Congestion is a normal condition, dealing with it is routine, but when it occurs, electricity market prices "split." In the simplest form, cheaper supplies in the West can’t all get to larger consumer markets in the East, so prices fall in the West (e.g., Ohio) and rise in the East (e.g., New Jersey, or NYC).
That means that while we may have power plants in Ohio and Illinois that could produce more power for about $60/megawatt-hour (6 cents/kwh), we can’t move all that power to the East and must instead run more expensive (older, dirtier, less efficient) power plants in the East.
When I checked Tuesday night, prices in the Eastern part of PJM were between $155 to $225/MWH (i.e., up to 22.5cents/kwh). That’s pretty expensive. And it would not be unusual for them to go even higher during the highest peak hours when the most costly power plants must be used.
So if you live on the Eastern seaboard — from PA to NY and New England to New Jersey and down into Maryland and Virginia, you’ll probably find the system has enough power plants to keep your air conditioners running, but it will cost you and your utility more money. During those peak hours, your utility will be facing electricity prices 5 to 10 times higher than it usually pays during the non-peak hours.
In some states, you’ll see those high hourly prices reflected right away on your next monthly bill; in other states, it may be averaged in over the summer or year. But no matter what, you’ll pay for it.
So if you can, help your local system keep its grid reliable and keep its costs and your bills lower. Whatever you can safely do to use your air conditioner less and other energy-using appliances more wisely, such as moving electricity use to non-peak hours, helps.
John Chandley
More:
New York ISO
New England ISO
PJM prices showing congestion effects
29 Comments
I’m out here in Sacto, CA, where it’s common by this time of year to have days on days of 100F or more.
But we don’t have the humidity the Eastern Seaboard does, or NY does.
But when it hits 95F+ days on end, our AC goes on, and we pay more.
When our ‘Delta Breezes’ kick in, we have screen shades that stick in our front and back door, we open windows, and we kewl down.
Our probelm is, if the day is 95f, and the breezes don’t flow, then it never gets kewl the whole night long, and no amount of screens or open windows can make up for that heat that rises (we’re on the bottom floor of a two story) thru 3am in the morning. Ergo, we use AC.
I can’t imagine, not since a child in Saigon or Bangkok, 95F with 90% humidity.
And that was in the early, middle and late 50′s and early 60′s.
When Sacto goes to 100F, or even 95F, it screws with my plants and garden and herbs, and it screws with me.
So far, this is the coolest year to date since we’ve lived here, in ’88.
Spooky, that is.
My heart out to all of youse along the East Coast and inland . . .
May the gods of the winds cool your sails soon.
If you live in Sacatomatoes, as I used to, then your local utility, SMUD, does a very good job of keeping the lights on. But it isn’t alone. It’s in the middle of PG&E, and PG&E is the northern anchor for the California ISO, which operates the grid for most of California. (Many munies stayed out of the ISO) And that is only part of the Western Interconnection, which covers all Western states and parts of Canada. You’re drawing power from one of the largest systems in the world, all coordinated on one huge interconnected grid. SMUD routinely buys and sells power from/to other regions, including the ISO markets.
I remember so well the days when power producers and traders in the west created fake problems, in order to play with supply–and game pricing. Fat Boy. Ricochet.
Do you think there if a future for smart grids and distributed generation? There appears to be some great technology out there, but also seems that many established players are fighting hard to keep that technology out of the market.
We already have much of the infrastructure for “smart grids” and “distributed generation.” What’s missing is a pricing system that makes it cost effective to do “smart” things on this grid. It’s not necessarily different power lines, though there are ways of operating the transmission system that can be cheaper. The ISOs and transmission-owning utilities are already doing those things.
Most of the “smart” comes at the user end. Smarter appliances that respond to changing spot prices, smarter meters that measure hourly use and changes in spot prices and interact with the smart appliances, sending and receiving signals about when it’s cheaper to use energy and when more expensive. We know how to do this, but without smarter pricing which requires smarter regulators, this will come very slowly. Regulators instinctively fear prices they don’t control, and everyone thinks California crisis. We’re barely beyond changing lightbulbs, while the technology is way past that, waiting for regulators to catch up.
Has Fox News made any claims about global warming based on daily weather temps yet? Guess not since it’s not snowing.
Still waiting for the forthcoming apologies to Al Gore from the people who were mocking him last winter, though of course the cold snaps then and the heat this summer fall precisely within the climate models.
(theme from Jeopardy playing….)
Of course a heat spike is no more proof of global warming than a cold spike. The deniers are not interested in the real effects that matter, such as the rapidly diminishing glaciers due to changes in averages over time. Still, they do get excited when it snows. I had a dog like that when I was young.
I thoroughly agree. Over and over I’ve tried to point out the difference between “climate” and “weather” but I might as well be commanding the tide not to come in…
Yep that natioanal grid we were promised is working really will, not. Sad because this won’t happen if it was up and running. I hope it cools down soon for you all in the East. As Larue pointed out everything is normal here in the central valley with power to spare.
Last week, when my stove killed itself, we went to my mom’s to get the propane barby off her porch. That’s saving energy and keeping the kitchen cooler. We also picked up an air conditioner that she hasn’t used since she got central air. We have central air too, but, I want to use the a/c in the bedroom window so that we don’t have to cool the entire house all the time. Even going to break down and put a little tv in there. It’s been a rule of mine for a long time. No tv in the bedroom. I’ve got a couple other utility saving ideas going for the summer.
So, John – are you saying (and if you are, I’m with you all the way)that the issue is access to the grid for the cheaper western power? And is the problem there that we need — more transmission lines? More places to wheel this stuff? Enquiring minds want to know! Because for all the folks out there who believe that building big wind and solar projects to bring power to the coast is the answer, I have to tell you this: If we can’t bring cheaper conventionally generated power to the coast NOW because of congestion (and these are the folks who already have ‘access’ in that they have agreements with the ISOs and so on), then there is no way to get additional and alternative generation sources online.
We already have open access to the grid throughout most of the Eastern Interconections. I helped write those rules. Every generator can connnect (it pays for the direct interconnection, and perhaps some upgrades needed), and it can sell power into the ISO-coordiated markets that supply power for the northern half of the Eastern Interconnection. (The South has it’s own privately owned/operated systems, dominated by Southern Company, which owns the major utilities in the Alabama, Miss, Georgia. The do not meet what I would call genuine “open access” rules, though FERC disagrees, because it maintains two sets of rules. One for ISOs, another for privately owned systems like Southern. Southern and large western utilities have have huge influence in Congress.
Whether we need more transmission depends on comparing costs. When you have congestion, prices split. The region with the higher prices needs to ask itself, how can I lower my costs? It’s choices are:
1. Build more transmission and pay the cost of that, thus getting access to lower cost generation in another region.
2. Build more generation in your region, and pay that cost
3. Enact stronger demand-response programs, and pay that cost.
4. Do nothing, and pay the extra cost of the current congestion.
Which is cheaper? Every case will be different, but the wrong answer is “always build more transmission,” because often the new/upgraded transmission costs more than the other three options. My bias is towards 3, or 4, but sometimes 1 and 2 are cheaper.
thanks, John…
Transmission limits can prevent alternative energy from coming on line, or it can help it, as when split prices create profitable opportunities for distributed generation in load centers. Regulators have to make that feasible by using rates based on hourly pricing and getting rid of the kinds of standby charges that utilities too often use to limit competition.
But yeah, it costs money to build new transmission to North Dakota, where there are no people and hence little transmission, so that you can build wind generators there and transmit the power to keep the lights on a Wrigley Field. My view is that the costs of new transmission should be paid for by the beneficiaries: the fans in Chicago and the wind generators in Dakotas.
Years ago, Buckminster Fuller pointed out that if the world were intertied, we would be closer to a true global village and closer to elimination of war. This is because peak power demand in one area could be mitigated by supplies from areas not into peak demand. A sharing of resources back and forth would be beneficial to the world in general. Inasmuch as NoDak and similar may never have such huge peaks, I might suggest that even modest peaks in low populated areas would benefit.
We have yet to try it even as the technology for such has existed since the 70′s.
The technology does not exist.
There are no intercontinental (trans-ocean) undersea transmission lines, and the cost of installation would be huge, and with transmission losses might not even work.
Better to grow trees (shade), insulate, and deploy solar for peak a/c loads. The solar supply curve fits the peak a/c loads very well.
Shade, especially on the South and West of the building is critical.
I lived in NC, and one year the a/c in my home died. We survived, partly because the large oaks trees in our old neighborhood shaded our house, and we opened windows only when they would cool the house.
Electricity is too valuable to be used for a/c in poorly designed buildings.
As a future reference, if you’re in those situations again, you can also place a window fan upstairs and have it blow outwards. That helps to create a draft and pull the hot air upstairs then out of the house
Right. I thought Fuller a bit grandiose, but it does exist between states, Canada and Mexico and afaik, it can run between North and South America.
Should have been more precise!
The general problem, as with oil, is that the pork bellies crowd, flush with ZIRP cash, have moved into commodities futures. That would be bad enough but a few of the biggest traders do not have to settle their trades when it might cost them too much. Every reason to bid up the market and very little downside for the market makers. Squeezing every ounce of profit from the things we all need to get by.
As I put it, it’s hotter than a demon’s jockstrap out there. I’m not use to the heat. Thing is, most Vermonters do not have A/C. I certainly don’t. I’m sitting here in front of my big fan drinking lots of fluids and waiting for this to break.
Thanks for this post, Scarecrow. Not something that we think much about. (I say that as I sit here running a massive 480 volt 3 phase 400 amp machine tool, that magically lights up every morning when the breaker is flipped on.)
New post up top…
As somebody who also resides along the Eastern Seaboard and lives on the 4th floor of a 5-story stucco warehouse that was refurbished into artists’ condo/lofts years ago, and who owns a beautiful exotic African Grey Parrot (which was born in captivity and hand-fed), as well as being a craftswoman whose work produces much dirt and dust and frequently requires the use of an open torch, I do have an air-conditioner in my bedroom (which is good for sleeping at night), and a ceiling fan, plus an air purifier, due to the bird’s presence. I know from personal experience, when I was the the process of moving into the place where I presently reside, that, without my A/C and my ceiling fan, my 4th-floor loft/apartment would be like a furnace in the summer time. Plus, I’ve got ten-foot ceilings and high windows, which I also love, but, using those things to keep cool is an absolute necessity for me in the summer, for both myself and my pet bird, who’d overheat pretty quickly if not for the ceiling fan and the A/C.
I have lived in places without A/C’s before, and it’s been hellish in the summertime. The use of box fans, or even the fans that oscillate can only do so much, and even then, they don’t always move the air around enough. Plus, fans don’t last forever–I’ve had them conk out on me due to necessary continued use in hot weather. Also, regardless of what anybody says or things, heat is not only deadly for the elderly (I’m not elderly, nor do I have any elderly people in my house), but for infants, young children, people with suppressed/compromised immune systems, severely over-or-underweight individuals, chronically ill people of any age, and pets, as well.
What I do in a heatwave is to leave the A/C on medium, have my ceiling fan on high, and close my venetian blinds with the slats out to keep the sun and heat out of my 4th-floor condo apartment/loft. Since my A/C also has an economy mode, which automatically turns the A/C down to the “Low” setting and acts as sort of a thermostat by automatically turning the A/C on and off to maintain the temperature of the room as needed, I turn the A/C to the Economy mode when I leave the house for any length of time.
Get some of the reflecting urethane filled building board from your local (monopoly) hardware store and cut it to window size.
Either place the reflecting side facing outward between the blind & the window, or install it over the windows (hard in your case) on the outside.
It’s inexpensive and easy to cut.
I’ve also installed roll up blinds (the bamboo or faux bamboo) on the outside of west facing windows to provide shade. This also may be hard for you.
Thanks for your feedback, Synoia, but how the hell would getting reflecting urethane-filled building board and cutting it to window-size benefit me? First of all, I’m on the fourth floor–I couldn’t very well install urethane-filled reflecting building on the outside, nor would I want to, due to possible risk of making my pet ill. Also, I don’t find roll-up blinds particularly attractive, and my venetian blinds are perfectly attractive and comfortable.
Put the urethane foam boards between the blinds & the window on the inside. Outside is best, not practicable in your case (depends on the type of window, and the building’s association’s views as well).
Or, put a frame with window glass with the window tinting film in between the blind & the window. You probably don’t want to or can’t tint the windows.
Seriously, Synoia; just what the hell would be the purpose of going out and purchasing urethane foam boards and then putting them between the blinds and windows, on either the outside or the inside? First of all, it’s a stupid idea. Secondly, they’d look ugly as hell. Thirdly, I don’t need urethane foam in my house. Finally, if you’re trying to steer me away from using air-conditioning in the summertime, forget it! Thanks.
Moreover, as far as tinting the windows, or putting a frame with window glass in it, it’s probably super expensive. I’ll stick with what I’ve got and keep doing as I’ve been doing for all the years I’ve resided in my present location. Thanks again.
Tinting is quite inexpensive about $1.00 per sq ft.
You an also do it yourself. The tint film is held onto the glass by the surface tension of water. No adhesive required.
What I suggested was effective. Agreed it’s also ugly.
Windows are the best are to address both for heating & cooling, as they generally are the least thermal resistant part of a building.
Tinting the windows is also out of the question for me, plus I don’t really want to do it, but thanks again.