The big story in Texas this week was loss of electricity and the need for “rolling blackouts” in major urban areas and other load centers, which affected natural gas supplies into Northern New Mexico. What does it tell us?
According to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the combined electricity grid and power plant dispatch for most of Texas, it all started when two large coal-fired power plants in Central Texas suffered mechanical breakdowns, likely due to very cold weather, and suddenly shut down. Their combined capacity is over 2600 megawatts (MW), and additional units lost or unable to start in the cold weather may have totalled about 7,000 MW in a system whose peak winter demand can reach over 60,000 MW. That was apparently too much of a sudden loss for the ERCOT system alone.
In electricity systems, the laws of physics rule: supply and demand (plus losses) must perfectly balance at every moment for the system to remain stable. So the ISO must have reserve units standing by to replace the lost supply immediately and restore balance. If there aren’t enough reserves, or other units also fail, the ISO has no choice but to order that some customer loads be immediately curtailed to restore this necessary balance.
It’s still too early to describe the exact sequence of events that caused the system to crash, or if it could have been prevented. But there’s a broad lesson not just for electrical systems but for political and economic systems.
When electricity systems were first built, they were local, typically just for a community or city, and the systems were not interconnected. It was every system for itself. As they spread, utilities gradually built more transmission, both to bring in power from plants located outside the load centers and to allow sharing of these standby reserves in case one system suffered supply cutoffs and needed emergency supplies from its neighbor utilities. Eventually, utilities merged and became even more interconnected. Now the entire US is highly interconnected.
About 85 years ago, utilities in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland formed the PJM power pool. The idea was to run their combined generation pool and transmission as a single, interconnected system, because it would both be cheaper to combine their dispatches and more reliable; a problem in one system could be easily solved by power flowing from the neighboring system in the pool. PJM made all of its members more reliable and so others joined.
After the blackouts in the 1960s and 1980s, other power pools formed, one for all of New York’s utilities and another for all of the utilities in New England. New York now functions as one system; all of New England functions as one system. Eventually other pools formed in the Midwest, in the Southwest, California and Texas.
Moreover, NY and NE are interconnected with each other, and NY is interconnected with PJM, which in turn is strongly interconnected with MISO, and then SPP and so on. The entire Eastern Interconnection now functions as one machine, and the regional system operators at PJM, NY ISO, NE ISO, Midwest ISO, etc all coordinate with each other in varying degrees. They’re all interconnected by free-flowing alternating current (AC) transmission lines, so power moves freely from one region to another. They all support and interact with each other, every second, every day. The lights in New Jersey may be kept on partly from plants in Illinois.
ERCOT finally moved to this power pool formation about a decade ago. But there’s a limit to this, because Texas chose decades ago to limit its transmission interconnections with other states, so as to avoid the “interstate commerce” that would trigger Federal jurisdiction. It’s the Rick Perry attitude towards whether they’re part of the Union or not.
Texas stands alone, and the interconnections it has with other states are both limited and of a different type (Direct Current), which aren’t free flowing; they’re highly controlled.
What that means is that when something happens in Texas, it doesn’t affect surrounding systems like Southwest Power Pool, and vice versa. But the price they pay is that when they need help, they don’t necessarily get it. And when there’s a severe emergency, as happened this week, their whole system becomes vulnerable, just to please an ideological insistence to stand alone.
If Texas had been more interconnected with the US, the way the entire Eastern Interconnection (MISO, SPP, PJM, NY, NE, etc) are interconnected, it’s entirely possible that the combined system would have automatically fixed the problems before the lights in Texas went out. It’s just physics.
When an operating plant trips off, standby operating reserves automatically kick in, and if those trip too, other plants should kick in. Further, in a fraction of a second, the voltage frequency drops across the transmission grid, and [local] voltage support may also suffer. When that happens, the ISO’s system dispatch automatically sends signals to many other generators to ramp up, to bring supply back in balance with demand and raise voltage levels to reliable levels.
Again, we don’t know the exact sequence of the Texas failure. But it’s likely that if Texas had been more strongly interconnected with the US, the entire Eastern Interconnection would have instantly responded to the frequency/voltage dips and immediately brought more generators on line in surrounding states. So even if other plants in Texas tripped off, as they apparently did, extra power from plants in Missouri and Illinois and Ohio would have kept the lights on in Texas.
That would have avoided rolling blackouts in Texas’ cities. It would have kept the electric compressor/pumps running in northern Texas that send natural gas to Northern New Mexico, which lost gas supplies for heating in the middle of winter.
In unity, there is strength, safety, reliability. We know this. We’ve had 100 years of electricity system developments to prove it, over and over.
But the same lesson applies to the national economy. When the economy goes into deep recession, individual states get clobbered. They lose tax revenues as people lose jobs and businesses close, but their expenses for emergency services like unemployment insurance, Medicaid, and so on skyrocket. They can’t solve this acting alone.
But the federal government acting as a union can. The feds can and should automatically pick up the funding for these safety net programs the instant the states get into trouble. That federal spending is what keeps people alive, it’s what keeps the economy from completely crashing, and keeps unemployment from exploding even more. It could save the states.
And the federal government can do this over time. It can spend more now, when it’s needed, and cut back later, when the economy and the states are able to pick up the slack on their own. It’s obvious to any sentient being that we need lots of additional federal spending to help states that are going through budget crisis. But we’re pretending as if we’re not connected, that we’re not a union. That’s insane.
These principles are so universal, so obvious, so correct in both policy and politics, that it’s astonishing that there is a single Democratic legislator that doesn’t get it. I don’t expect Republicans to care; the current crop is either stupid, dishonest or evil.
But there’s no excuse for a Claire McCaskill to be cosponsoring “balanced budget” amendments or arbitrary spending caps that would cripple America’s ability to function as a union, to prevent the feds from providing the “balancing” function that has to be there for the people and economy to recover. She may as well be proposing to turn out the lights in Missouri. It’s that crazy.
And it’s equally inexcusable for other foolish Democrats to be competing with Tea-GOP nihilists on which safety-net programs to cut first and deepest. Every one of these efforts will hurt the public, and no Democrat should be promoting them.
Update: The Rush Limbaugh/Drudge and other conservative claims that the blackouts were the result of environmental regs or anti-coal policies is utter crap. [See Adam Siegel's rebuttal here.] As I said, “stupid, dishonest, or evil.” In Rush”s case, it’s all three.



46 Comments

Actually the synchronous frequency drops (60 Hz), which cause the already-spun-up units to be made to deliver into the load.
Adding capacity is automatic and used continuously to balance the supply & demand.
Correct, frequency drops; I think both drop. I’ll revise.
Scarecrow is too generous. It isn’t just that we aren’t a real union of states, as the old South never really accepted Federalism. Now the independence movement reaches citizens who form Tea Parties to return to a government by counties or wards or something. And then there are the libertarians, who stand solipsistic and darn proud of their utter lack of dependence on or responsibility to anyone other than themselves.
I seem to recall something about “We the People, in order to form a more perfect Union…”
“And then there are the libertarians, who stand solipsistic and darn proud of their utter lack of dependence on or responsibility to anyone other than themselves.”
Rugged individualism fails every time historically.
Scarecrow, did I read correctly…TX contacted Mexico to buy power from a state owned power plant?
They did indeed. Yahoo had the story, IIRC.
That was back when we also held “truths to be self-evident”. Now we get to just make shit up and pretend it’s true.
In a perfect world, giant power companies and inefficient interstate transmission would be unnecessary. Local generation of power is now becoming more practical. Screw the man, DIY.
lol… thanks for the TGIF guffaw, and ain’t that the truth?? Who needs inconvenient facts when fictional libertarian fantasy land is so much funner than evah!
Lawdy! Coal fired plants in Texas! With all that oil?
Here I am surrounded by nuclear and you all have rolling outages.
Just another tick mark on the failures of Government for the past 40 years.
I posted this on an earlier thread. It is well worth repeating. Dallas area hospitals, including a trauma center, were not advised they would be participating in the rolling blackouts. Yes, they had emergency back-up generators that kicked in quickly. At the same time, computers and some medical equipment suffered a breakdown.
http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2011/02/02/blackouts-anger-dallas-hospitals/
And, btw, the Super Bowl has been excluded from the blackouts.
From “Mexico rides to rescue of Texas’ electricity woes? Si se puede“:
Mexico agreed to transmit 280 megawatts of electricity from the border cities of Nuevo Laredo, Reynosa and Piedras Negras, enough to power about 56,000 households in the winter. No need to check the legal status of electricity coming across the border. In fact, regulators lifted some pollution rules to allow the power plants to provide as much power as they could to Texas. As our Elizabeth Souter reported this morning , Texas Public Utility Commission Chairman Barry Smitherman said, “We are working with every tool we have to bring as much power on the system we can.”
Thank you, Mexico.
Yes, there is an interconnection between Texas and Mexico. Yesterday they imported about 280 MW for a while, in the last report I saw.
Texas has a mix of nukes, coal, and dual-fired oil/gas plants.
Since the Mexican War in 1848 Texas has been more trouble than it is worth. I would be happy to sign the papers on behalf of the rest of the Union if Texas still wants to succeed.
They assassinated President Kennedy and gave us the Bush family, Dick Armey, Tom DeLay, John Cornyn and several other creeps.
Ouch. Thanks for the link.
Yeah, usually critical public safety facilities are exempt, and institutions with their own back-up generation are alerted in advance to get ready to come on line. Looks like this overwhelmed them. The Independent System Operator (ISO) at ERCOT orders the blackouts, and tells the local utilities generally where/when to implement them. In most states, it’s up the the local utility to carry it out and coordinate with their own customers. Shutting down a hospital should never have happened.
Sorry but the Bush family is from Connecticut. They pretend to be from Texass.
Well, Texas is as Texas does. I’ve been really hoping that the Lone Star State would get a chance to see the consequences of its austerity driven, free market worshipping legislature and advocacy of same in Washington. But I’m afraid that the unrest in Egypt will send oil prices skyrocketing and that may bail Texas out.
Interesting read, thanks.
“More perfect union” to teahadis = more stuff for me, a log of unsalted dung for you.
350 million at stake here.lets keep the lights on
You wish them to succeed at seceding. [cringe]
” Every one of these efforts will hurt the public, and no Democrat should be promoting them.”
You ain’t see nothing yet….wait till June then you will see pandering like you have never seen.The whole bunch of ‘em (Democrats)in the Senate are fraudsters.
McCaskill is a Democrat? Somebody bring me up to speed, here, when did that happen?
This is the same Claire McCaskill, good friend of Obushma, who asked Gates,(in 2008) about the fact our troops were not getting medical care for PTSD because the insurance refused to pay it. After NPR did an investigation on it and found it to be true and exposed it, the good Claire, 3 years later, says she will ask for a congressional investigation on the matter. i don’t know whether she did or not, but even if she did, it is a good 3 years late. These are our troop loving patriots.
NM’s new Governor, Suzanna Martinez (R) was heavily financed by TX energy money (http://opendata.socrata.com/Government/Susana-Martinez-Contributions/7nkg-y6gy). Yesterday she declared emergency and shut down schools and government offices to conserve energy. She has already sought to abolish the State Public Utility Commission, who regulate utilities in NM. She is clearly anti-green (http://www.clearlynewmexico.com/?p=5338).
Watch, before too long, this shortage will be blamed on “un-necessary regulation.” Big TX Oil money got it’s money’s worth—people of NM not so much.
Holding our own here in Taos… The gas went out the morning after it had just gone down to -26° F, and just half an hour away in Angel Fire (1,300 feet higher), the low was -36 °F! Last night there were hundreds of people waiting for a truckload of 1,300 electric heaters coming to a local hardware store. According to the Taos News, the police had to step in to control the “massive crowd.” I also heard on Twitter that a Walmart north of Santa Fe (probably Española) had to close because of people fighting over heaters. Our neighbor hightailed it to the organic supermarket but could only score a single chicken leg. If you don’t have wood heat, you’re in trouble. But at least it’s warmer tonight, only down to 6 °F.
(For a personal account, see here:
http://www.farrfeed.com/2011/02/04/high-desert-freeze-mouse-bathtub/)
The post makes a good argument. As a born & former Texan, however, I’d like to point out that Texas was an independent nation for 10 years (1836-1846), a fact that goes a long way toward explaining the consciousness of the place. Same thing with Vermont, of course (1777-1791). The other thing for anyone who’s never been there is that Texas really is huge. You don’t drive across it in a day. It envelops you and makes you proud in a way that only Texans understand. It IS like a different country, compared to neighboring states.
A lot of things Texas does are insanely stupid. But the lunacy and pig-headedness come from quite a different psychic space that’s pretty cool in a lot of ways. Plays better in-state, though. Last summer I was driving from Amarillo and crossed into New Mexico. At a NM welcome center at the state line, I told the hostess, “Man, am I glad to be in New Mexico!”
She laughed and said, “We get a lot of that…”
Jeez, what does the Gov propose to replace the PUC with? Last I checked, the state still relied in vertically integrated monopolies for their electricity/gas, and even conservatives supposedly agree that requires regulation. Thanks for the heads up.
From the ridiculous to the sublime: our Governor Quinn was an activist who helped found the Citizens Utility Board (CUB), many years ago, to help fight the roll-over-and-play-dead attitude of our public utility regulatory commission here in Illinois. He’s also the only politician I can ever remember who successfully ran on a platform of increasing taxes this past November.
Scarecrow, I understand the point you’re trying to make, but I don’t think MO or IL could have helped. In my area of IL, we didn’t lose power, but we had half a dozen brown outs in a three-hour period during the blizzard–even with all our electrical underground. Over 40,000 people in IL lost power, and ComEd was scrambling to keep up. MO wasn’t a whole lot better.
Here’s a link to a funny post from Juanita Jean’s Texas blog:
http://juanitajean.com/2011/02/02/alien-electricity/
Yes, that’s true, but Texas elected them and gave them their political careers. Also John Conaly and “Democrats for Nixon”.
I am all in favor of Texas’s success in seceding.
Sounds like what you experience were distribution-related outages. E.g., ice taking down the distribution wires in the neighborhood are the most common cause of outages. It’s rarely the result of insufficient generation on the system. The Chicago area with ComEd is part of PJM, a huge system. If you’re in southern Ill, then the Midwest ISO operates the regional dispatch, and it can call on generators from 20 states. PJM, next door, has 14 states (there’s some overlap with MISO) that stretches all the way to New Jersey and down into Virginia. And the two coordinate. The point is, the larger the pool to draw from, the more likely it is that together we can keep everyone’s lights on.
Nice to hear from Taos. Good luck out there. I’m from New Mexico, my folks from Texas, so I know what you’re saying. I was born in that portion of New Mexico that was ceded by Mexico to the US in 1853. I’m sorta over that now.
Yes, Texans are interesting. It’s always helpful to remember that the laws of physics are the same everywhere on the planet, even Texas; so are the principles of least cost dispatch, which are the same for every large system in the world; and the economic incentives that drive generators in the dispatch are the same there as they are in Massachusetts and Ohio. That explains why the rules Texas electricity system operators came up with sound virtually identical to the ones they use in other systems. What their politicians do is another matter.
Good stuff. Thanks for the link.
There is, of course, a flip side. Not long ago, the exact interconnected system you highlight plunged the entire Northeast into blackout which lasted over a week in some places … as a result of some company in Ohio not trimming their trees. At least eleven people died. The only connected systems that didn’t go down were the ones set up to quickly break their interconnection (with the presence of mind to do so). If everyone had been configured like Texas back in 2003, the blackout wouldn’t have spread past Ohio.
Sometimes systems fail – even well designed ones with redundancy. I don’t know why everything has to be a vindication of vilification 100% of the time. It’s a crappy situation, I hope the best for everyone. Just like I hoped the best for everyone back in 2003.
I live in texas to work, but I plan to move out as soon as I retire. It’s just a bunch of friggin’ hicks. I’d find more intelligence in an empty box.
why is anyone surprised by the indescribably awful things claire mckaskill does? She’s forever been the dimmest of bulbs in the senate democratic caucus (which by itself is a major achievement).
A blue dog to the core, she’s blanche lincoln all over again. Her “tweets” (which she’s so proud of) are spectacularly lame and inane. Unfortunately, she’s all too representative of democrats in the senate. Stupid and corporately controlled.
Find me the liberal. Barbara Boxer – DQ’d because she campaigned so obnoxiously for Lieberman. Brown of Ohio? Just hated habeas corpus when he had the chance to stand up for it. Now that we have those two frauds out of the way, I’ll say it again. Find me the liberal in the senate.
Amazing to think a “state owned power plant” is saving some homes in the state filled with a number of corporatists who insist that privatizing “govmnt” is the only way to go.
She is a Blue Dog. She is trying to keep her job and is pandering to the Missouri Teatard party.
Political idiocy and perfidy aside, the backstory on electricy was astounding, scarecrow! Thanks for it; it seems like you researched a lot, and explained it well.
Uh-oh; can you tell me the story about Sherrod? He’s been a favorite of mine through the struggles to get meanigful FinRegs enacted.
Concerning the black-out you mentioned on the inter-connected northeast power grid.
Under the terms of the agreement that the individual systems implement to regulate the operation of all those interconnections, the constituents promise to disconnect themselves from the grid in order to confine failures to the subsystems in which the problem originates.
In the case you cited, that originated in Ohio, the operators there did not disconnect themselves from the grid even though they knew what was at stake, because when you do so, the electric meters in your blacked-out system stop turning which stops the cash from flowing.
The problem is the same in each case; operator’s technical advice is over-ruled by their greedy corporate owners resulting in catastrophic failures of vital services, in Texas, because of a literal isolation rooted in ideology, and in Ohio due to ignoring the rules governing interconnection, for the same greedy end purposes.
In each case, the culprit is faith in an ideology that says, “I got mine, screw you”.
Both failures are lessons that illustrate the short-comings inherent in that mindset.
McCaskill is a “Democrat” more in the breach than in the observance. I only support people who support me and McCaskill misses that list by quite a bit. I find her various twists and turnings very difficult to follow, so mostly I don’t. There are only so many hours in my day.
Good explanaion, Scarecrow. There’s an investigation coming, supposedly.
The spokesperson for my (San Antonio) publically-owned utility co. said on the 1st day, when most of the rolling blackouts occurred, that part of the reason was that some utilities had deliberately taken production down to perform maintenance, because at this time of year there’s usually little demand.
But, anyone who’s lived here for 10 yrs or more knows one, if we’re going to get very cold weather, this is excactly the time of year when we will get it, and two, the last several years have had colder weather that lasts longer than the previous 20 or 30 years.
Idjits.
Of course, it could turn out our spokesperson was wrong. But if it’s right, it wouldn’t surprise me at all. “Oh, this is Texas, we don’t have winter here!”
The 2003 outages that started in First Energy’s CA in Ohio weren’t simply the result of a failed transmission link. First Energy was not yet part of a functioning ISO (it later joined one).
As soon as the link went down and generators started to trip, the ISO at PJM saw the change in frequency; they’re physically interconnected, but the coordination agreements that would later work between PJM and MISO were years away. So PJM operators literally callup FE operators and asked,”uh, you guys seem to have a problem. Here’s what we see. Need help?” And the FE operators, whose control room warnings were not functioning properly, were flying blind. They didn’t know what was happening at first. So they said to PJM, “uh, no problem, but we’ll check.” By they time they figured it out, the system was suffering rapid, cascading shutdowns and quickly rippling out.
So not knowing what the problem was, FE didn’t provide the warnings to its neighbors — that’s a huge problem — and as plant after plant tripped, it cascaded very quickly, taking a huge system down and reaching into NY and NE. PJM disconnected, because they could see there was a problem at FE, they just didn’t know what. It might have been better if they hadn’t because they’re huge — 14 states — so they could absorb a big change better than a small neighboring utility. We’ll never know.
In FE’s case, there were major failures happening right in the middle of the region, and FE wasn’t conveying that information to its neighbors, and it wasn’t coordinated with them, as would be the case if they were part of a large ISO/power pool. So each successive system got blindsided, in a very rapid cascade. It happened in a few minutes.
None of these systems will work if the eyes and ears of the system fail or are missing, and yes, that means a very large system could also be vulnerable if it’s “blind.”
What’s happened since the Ohio outages:
1. FE is now part of an ISO, Midwest ISO (from the Dakotas to PA), and all its systems have been upgraded.
2. Neighboring PJM now was a “full system” view of the entire Eastern Interconnection; so the operators in PA can see what’s happening everywhere. Their control room has huge screens the width of a football field in which you can see half the US — you can see every plant and every line on the system and its operational status. And the team on duty — someone is there 24/7 — can switch their personal screens to any element on the system and see exactly what’s happening there.
3. MISO now has a full system view, just like PJM. So two huge ISOs now see the whole Eastern half of US system, plus they coordinate their dispatches and inter-regional transfers every hour.
4. The eyes and ears — missing ones have been added and/or upgraded.
Can it all fail in someway we haven’t predicted? Possibly. But the probabilities have been greatly reduced. They seem to learn through failure.
Learn through failure? What a concept. We could use more of that pretty much everywhere in the country.