It is Saturday morning here; Saturday night in Japan.
Some important developments that provide rays of hope and areas of concern. Concerns first.
First, some local produce has become contaminated with radiation. The New York Times reports authorities finding unacceptable levels of radiation in food in Fukushima:
The government said on Saturday that they had found levels of radioactive materials above safe limits in spinach and milk in Fukushima and Ibaraki prefectures, the first confirmation by officials that the nuclear catastrophe unfolding at power plants nearby has affected the nation’s food supply.
Yukio Edano, the chief cabinet secretary, said that the radioactivity contained in the average amount of spinach and milk consumed during an entire year would be equal to the amount received in a single CAT scan. Mr. Edano said that abnormal amounts of radioactivity were found only in these two products, though other foods were tested.
It was not known how much affected milk and spinach had already been shipped.
Subsequent reports indicate the government has banned the sale of produce grown in the Fukushima prefecture. They are still maintaining their 20 kilometer evacuation zone with warnings to stay indoors out to 30 km from the site.
[Update: Kyodo News reports findings of slightly higher levels of radioactive iodine in water samples in Tokyo and above legal limits in tap water at Fukushima prefecture.]
Second, they’re about to test the new electrical connection from the grid. TEPCO reports they have completed installing the new power connection from the grid to the site and then on to Units 1 and 2. They’re also working to extend to Units 3 and 4, though it’s unclear whether that implicates radiation levels near those two units.
As I suspected, not only did they need a new line from the grid; they needed to bypass much of the original interconnection points on the site that link to each of the Units and other buildings. These interconnection points were vulnerable to the tsunami and may be unusable. Recall that the back-up diesel generators used whenever grid power is lost were located in a low elevation building closer to the sea and were inundated by the tsunami.
Authorities say they now have power connections to the station, but have not tested the electrical components. They’ll need to make sure the interconnections to the individual Units are sound first, then carefully test connected electrical equipment, control panels and switching. Only then will we know whether the pumps and other critical cooling equipment that require electric power are still operable. Those tests are supposed to occur on Sunday.
Third, they’re bringing in the robots! If you watch the periodic reports on the NHK tv feed, they show an unmanned fire truck with water cannon shooting water into Unit 3. The truck is connected by a hose 800 meters long so they can constantly feed water into the unmanned truck-cannon, rather than expose workers with manned hoses. (Authories also report they are bringing in emergency fire crews from other regions to relieve those who have already reached their exposure limits.)
The remotely supplied water cannon allowed several hours (seven?) of continuous spraying on Saturday, and officials claim they sent 1260 tons of water aimed at Unit 3′s spent fuel storage pool. They also claim to have slightly lowered the temperature in the pool to below boiling, but it’s not clear whether they’ve confirmed this.
In addition, American and other western nations are sending in robots that can perform certain tasks in nuclear emergencies, including dragging fire hoses. From the NYT (h/t 4cdave):
At the request of the Japanese military, a Massachusetts company, iRobot, said it put four robots on a plane for Japan on Friday. Colin Angle, the chief executive, said it had sent two small robots that could measure radiation levels close to the reactors and two larger ones that could pull hoses to spray water on the fuel rods. He said Japanese soldiers could operate the robots from a protected vehicle.
Fourth, they’ve restarted another generator at Unit 5. This appears to be a generator on site, not power from the new power line extensions from the grid. The added generation has allowed them to resume more water pumping into Units 5 and 6 storage pools.
Both reactors were down form maintenance when the quake/tsunami struck, but they both have fuel in their reactor cores (per NYT Unit summaries) and more in their spent fuel storage pools. The generators can help keep the units cooled, so those units are now at significantly lower risk.
More: Could Unit 4 Storage Pool be leaking? US authorities have argued that the loss of cooling water in Unit 4′s spent fuel storage pool could be at least partially explained by a leak or damage to the storage pool walls or the “gate” that opens to allow transfer of fuel rod assemblies between the pool and the reactor vessel.
Union of Concerned Scientists has an explanation of one plausible reason for a leak in the “gate.” The gist is, the gate is normally sealed by an air pressurized seal driven by an electric air pump. The pump gets its power from the grid. Lose that and the air pump can’t seal the gate to ensure against leakage of water from the pool. As UCS notes, this scenario actually occurred at a US reactor, the Hatch facility in Georgia in 1986. It’s worth reading for the clear explanation, diagrams and actual pictures from other BWR plants.
More updates as we get them, and I want to thank our commentors who continue to bring in reports and updates. Thanks especially to 4cdave and others who maintained the late night vigils.




187 Comments

Good Morning Scarecrow – guess the food contamination was not unexpected, but it does give pause
Thank you again for the excellent updates, and thanks to 4cdave and other commenters for superior (often over my head but still!) discussion. I cannot help but be concerned for the environment, the wildlife, the animals, the vegetation, especially ocean inhabitants, most notably fish. Seems to me it is just a matter of time…Water will flow and seek levels beyond human control, and take radiation with it. Plus, I do not know this: can you drink milk or eat spinach that is tainted but ‘not a health risk?’
I ask because it stands to reason that a good deal of it will be inadvertently consumed.
I don’t know enough to make judgments about relative health risks. There’s a very good table comparing dosage levels from different sources and activities, like Xrays, high altitudes, etc. Linked earlier, but I’ll go find that.
Of course, this all assumes we trust the authorities and food corps to provide us non-toxic foods in the first place. Right.
Reminds me of the scene from Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, where they’re thinking about jumping off the cliff and into the river below. Redford says, “I can’t swim!” And Newman laughs and says, “hell, the fall will kill you!”
So now the’re saying “don’t eat your spinach!” I can’t keep up.
Watch, you’re going to get the Chicken Little, the sky is falling routine starting here about an irradiated food supply. There was already one poster over at The Huffington Post saying that they heard on a local TV news station in SoCal that crops might have to be destroyed there because of radiation contamination wafting over from Japan. Being the skeptical person I am, I went to the website for KUSI TV and found nothing whatever to back up the claim. Quite the contrary, in fact. They had a good piece showing how slight-to-non-existent the risk was.
People are such dumb-ass sheep.
I want to thank you guys for the coverage, too.
I amazed that there isn’t something as basic as a pipe or even a trough running from some safe distance to these pools. It’s like they go so overboard in selling us on the safety of these reactors they start believing their own BS that nothing can go wrong.
One of Rachel Maddow’s guests a couple of nights ago said forget about iodine pills, the grass cows eat will be contaminated, thereby contaminating their milk, so one protection will be to not drink milk (and I assume that would extend to other dairy products).
The Unit reports suggest they’ve been supplying sea water directly to the reactors at Units 1 and 2 at least, which suggests some continuous supply of water. We’ve just haven’t heard much about that in recent days, because nothing’s blowing up.
Here’s the link to the Breakthrough Institute, which provides very good updates and has the charts on comparative radiation levels.
http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2011/03/fukushima_nuclear_watch.shtml
‘Morning, Elliot. And I’d finally become old enough to enjoy spinach salads.
Yes – contaminated milk is a huge contributor in this area – the kids in Chernobyl could not escape it because the government did not tell people NOT to feed their kids milk or dairy products. Ingested radiation is worse than surface contamination, which can be mostly removed by washing.
Our food is already irradiated.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_irradiation
A question. The authorities keep saying they dont know the extent of this or that meltdown, cant say for sure if this or that storage pool is empty, cant see how much melting has gone on in this or that pile, etc. Why dont they have cameras in those rooms? Failing that, why cant they send in a robot with a camera on it and LOOK? Heck, my neighbor has a mobile cam in his apt he got for a couple of hundred dollars. I cant believe even very hi rad would disable such a contraption before it could play look-i-loo. And robots dont care about suicide missions.
Digital Globe has new photos from March 18 here:
http://www.digitalglobe.com/downloads/featured_images/japan_earthquaketsu_fukushima_daiichi_march18_2011_dg.jpg
And March 17 here:
http://www.digitalglobe.com/downloads/featured_images/japan_earthquaketsu_fukushima_daiichirec_march17_2011_dg.jpg
I’ve been combing through them, looking at the damage to the reactor buildings themselves and the surrounding buildings. It’s clear that the explosion of unit 3 was huge. The damage to the common support building to the ocean side of the reactor building is heavy, with a gaping hole in the roof and at least three other zones on the roof where either debris “plowed” along the roof or liquid from what looks like a pipe along the roofline on the edge of the building closest to the reactor building being severed. Don’t be alarmed by what look like “hot spots” on the March 17 photo. The angle is from almost directly overhead and the photo appears to have been taken around the middle of the day, so there are several spots where metal objects are providing very bright reflections. Many of these are likely vehicles, but there are a couple of bright metal objects reflecting on rooftops as well.
A heart warming story:
Dog Refuses to Leave Friend Injured in Tsunami
http://www.care2.com/greenliving/dog-refuses-to-leave-friend-injured-in-tsunami.html#ixzz1H3ZmBDoR
Do animals have souls like we do?
Yeah well, I’m just finding out that 3 Mile Island was a lot worse than the “authorities” said it was so, I take every thing they say now with a grain of sea salt ( or kelp)
I think the food ban is more a very localized (producer area) level request to refrain from shipment by the governor. So is mostly a technical issue and more a cautionary move than a ban.
It is a bit unfortunate that the stampede at Narita of foreigners leaving is probably giving the travelers more exposure to radiation from the flight than if they stayed in Tokyo. Though this is the trite part of the problem the serious one is that it is not a good idea to create panic in places where there should not be one yet. The US and Japanese governments pretend that 50 miles converts to 20km. This is probably a function of the time difference creating strange feedbacks in policy decisions.
Now that corporate cronyism is the new norm in the global economy, one must wonder if downward pressure from stockholders to management fostered a culture of safety violations that flourished in favor of greater profits. What we need to learn from this disaster, and what Obama needs to be telling us, is that these volatile nuclear systems that can literally threaten the life and livelihood of countless people should be completely non-commercial with all profits reinvested back into making nuclear energy as safe as humanly possible.
We need electricity, but we do not need anyone getting rich off of it.
These systems need to be operated outside the reach of greed!
Obama needs to stick that in his teleprompter, but nothing short of a visit from God will motivate him to do this.
Excellent points. The radiation may be high enough in some places to destroy the cameras, but that’s better than human recon.
I’m beginning to think nothing short of a miracle will save the entire species, let alone all the other ones we so willfully destroy.
By the way there was a another quake today:
Quake hits south of stricken plant
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/quake-hits-south-of-stricken-plant-20110319-1c189.html
On the other hand, better to be safe than sorry. You never know.
Yes, but radiation was found on planes flying in from japan yesterday.
The Union of Concerned Scientists guy said on Maddow the other night that no amount of radiation is safe.
And we’re going to be getting at least higher than normal all over the world from this
I’ve eaten kelp for years just for my thyroid…just in case. You know?
I think they’re going robotic today
Perhaps around Chernobyl, but not the rest of Europe.
I arrived in Holland a few days after Chernobyl and heard constant messages to not drink the milk, eat produce, drink water from the tap, and so on. The message throughout Europe was very specific about what could be sold and consumed.
The panic may come from legitimately growing concerns about potable water.
“Now that corporate cronyism is the new norm in the global economy, one must wonder if downward pressure from stockholders to management fostered a culture of safety violations that flourished in favor of greater profits”
That seems to be the case with TEPCO, which stacked the board set up by the government in the 1990s to evaluate the safety of the reactors. The chief scientists resigned because the board (consisting mainly of lobbyists for the industry)refused to raise the seismic standard for safety. It cost too much.
If I had the time and energy it would be worth a diary to explain why privatizing public utilities like this is a bad idea. The basic point is that corporations are out to make money, and money earned by nickle and diming safety and quality is as good as that earned by providing a better product and better service. It works because public utilities have the character of a natural monopoly, so they don’t have to be afraid of competitors. The same is true in spades in American health insurance, where the monopolies are state-level (which is why the industry lobbied so vigorously to sustain the anti-trust exemption.
It would be really good if they could get food and fuel delivered to the restricted areas, or move the people out who are stuck there.
You’re going to get more radiation standing out in the sun, or from an x-ray, than from Fukushima.
The Union of Concerned Scientists needs to be a bit less scare-talky and a bit more explanatory in their public statements. They sound like all the panicked media people….
Here’s Brad Friedman’s summary of the situation that he posted yesterday evening:
“Fukushima Daiichi plant
– Reactor No. 1 – Operation suspended after quake, cooling failure, partial melting of core, vapor vented, building housing reactor damaged March 12 by hydrogen explosion, roof blown off, seawater being pumped in.
– Reactor No. 2 – Operation suspended after quake, cooling failure, seawater being pumped in, fuel rods fully exposed temporarily, vapor vented, building housing reactor damaged Monday by blast at reactor No. 3, blast sound heard near suppression chamber of containment vessel on Tuesday, damage to containment structure feared.
– Reactor No. 3 – Operation suspended after quake, cooling failure, partial melting of core feared, vapor vented, seawater being pumped in, building housing reactor badly damaged Monday by hydrogen explosion, high-level radiation measured nearby on Tuesday, plume of smoke observed Wednesday and presumed to have come from spent-fuel storage pool, seawater dumped over pool by helicopter on Thursday, water sprayed at it from ground on Thursday and Friday.
– Reactor No. 4 – Under maintenance when quake struck, no fuel rods in reactor core, temperature in spent-fuel storage pool reached 84 C on Monday, fire Tuesday possibly caused by hydrogen explosion at pool holding spent fuel rods, fire observed Wednesday at building housing reactor, pool water level feared receding, renewed nuclear chain reaction feared, only frame remains of reactor building roof.
– Reactors No. 5, 6 – Under maintenance when quake struck, some fuel rods left in reactor cores, water temperatures in spent-fuel storage pools increased to about 64 C on Thursday.
– Spent-fuel storage pools – Cooling functions lost at reactors No. 1 to 4, water temperatures or levels unobservable at reactors No. 1 to 4, no immediate threat to water level at common spent fuel pool.”
(me) The heating up of the spent fuel rods in the storage pools at reactors 5 & 6 now appears to have been arrested with the restoration of power and are cooling down.
The most critical problem now appears to be that the storage pools in reactors 3 and 4 are structurally damaged and leaking water. They were losing water faster than could be accounted for by evaporation and the efforts to add water with helicopter drops and water cannon have failed. Therefore, they are likely dry and restoring electricity and water pumping capacity is unlikely to to have any effect.
The fuel rods are going to have to be removed to a safe place, or entombed in situ in sand and cement as was done at Chernobyl.
If anyone still thinks this problem isn’t extremely grave, study the photograph of a weeping Akio Komori, the Managing Director of the Fukushima Daiichi plant.
Friedman has the photo and a link to Rachel Maddow’s excellent summary of the situation on her show Thursday. I recommend everyone view it, if you haven’t already done so.
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=8403#more-8403
You are astonishingly ignorant and self deluded about this emergency. Please get up to speed, if only to avoid deluding yourself.
Ignorance is not bliss.
I keep reading that fuel availability is the real problem. They have plenty of supplies, and more supplies piling up at ports, but not enough fuel (or not well-enough distributed perhaps) to get supplies where they are needed.
Of course they do, but you know that, don’t you?
:)
Let me repeat one interesting tidbit from the end of the last thread:
IAEA shows recommended dosages for KI for various ages, and for age 40+ it says “not necessary”.
Fukushima was not only expected but predicted in 2004:
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/fl20040523x2.html
Japan’s deadly game of nuclear roulette
By LEUREN MORET
Special to The Japan Times
Kyodo
BREAKING NEWS: Radioactive iodine beyond limit detected in tap water in Fukushima — Kyodo News Ticker
I apologize for my harsh comment. I thought you were saying there isn’t a significant danger of radiation in Japan and I now realize that you meant here in the US.
I agree that no significant danger exists now, but I do not believe we have sufficient information to reasonably predict whether that will remain the case in the future because the situation hasn’t played out yet in Japan.
Kyodo
Kei Sugaoka, a former GE nuclear field engineer, on KCRW’s To the Point (3/18/2011), said GE employees were in Fukushima’s nuclear reactors when the earthquake struck and that they all quickly left and flew back to the US.
Warren Olney, host of To the Point, did not follow up on that statement.
The Bhudda tells me, “Yes”. Most certainly.
There is no “safe” level of radioactivity. Radio-iodine and Cesium are taken up selectively by the body because they mimic iodine and Potassium. They are poisons and in any concentration will contribute to cancers and birth defects. They get into the food chain and remain there, poisoning and re-poisoning everthing they contact.
Ya wanna tell me how safe they are again?
US State Dept
I found a Nuclear Science and Engineering at MIT article that predicts “worst case” scenarios.
http://mitnse.com/2011/03/17/on-worst-case-scenarios/
Apologizes if it has been posted already.
Tweet: Beautiful day in Tokyo. Went on a one-hour run — first since the quake. Lots of people out on the running trails, wearing white masks.
Here’s the latest IAEA update:
Unit 1
Coolant within Unit 1 is covering about half of the fuel rods in the reactor, leading to fuel damage. High pressure within the reactor’s containment led operators to vent gas from the containment. Later, an explosion destroyed the outer shell of the reactor building above the containment on 12 March.
There are no indications of problems with either the reactor pressure vessel or the primary containment vessel.
Efforts to pump seawater into the reactor core are continuing.
On 18 March, Japan assigned an INES rating of 5 to this unit. Further information on the ratings and the INES scale.
Unit 2
Coolant within Unit 2 is covering about half of the fuel rods in the reactor, leading to fuel damage. Following an explosion on 15 March, Japanese officials expressed concerns that the reactor’s containment may not be fully intact. NISA officials reported on 18 March that white smoke continues to emerge from the building.
Efforts to pump seawater into the reactor core are continuing.
On 18 March, Japan assigned an INES rating of 5 to this unit.
Unit 3
Coolant within Unit 3 is covering about half of the fuel rods in the reactor, leading to fuel damage. High pressure within the reactor’s containment led operators to vent gas from the containment. Later, an explosion destroyed the outer shell of the reactor building above the containment on 14 March.
Following the explosion, Japanese officials expressed concerns that the reactor’s containment may not be fully intact. NISA officials reported on 18 March that white smoke continues to emerge from the building.
Efforts to pump seawater into the reactor core are continuing.
Of additional concern at Unit 3 is the condition of the spent fuel pool in the building. There are indications that there is an inadequate cooling water level in the pool, and Japanese authorities have addressed the problem by dropping water from helicopters into the building and spraying water from trucks. On 18 March, Japanese Self Defence Forces used seven fire trucks to continue spraying efforts. There is no data on the temperature of the water in the pool.
On 18 March, Japan assigned an INES rating of 5 to this unit.
Unit 4
All fuel had been removed from the reactor core for routine maintenance before the earthquake and placed into the spent fuel pool. A portion of the building’s outer shell was damaged by the explosion at Unit 3 on 14 March, and there have been two reported fires – possibly including one in the spent fuel pool on 15 March — that extinguished spontaneously, although smoke remained visible on 18 March.
Authorities remain concerned about the condition of the spent fuel pool.
On 18 March, Japan assigned an INES rating of 4 to this site.
Unit 5 and 6
Shut down before the earthquake, there are no immediate concerns about these reactors’ cores or containment. Instrumentation from both spent fuel pools, however, has shown gradually increasing temperatures. Officials have configured two diesel generators at Unit 6 to power water circulation in the spent fuel pools and cores of Units 5 and 6.
Workers have opened holes in the roofs of both buildings to prevent the possible accumulation of hydrogen, which is suspected of causing explosions at other units.
Iodine
On 16 March, Japan’s Nuclear Safety Commission recommended local authorities to instruct evacuees leaving the 20-kilometre area to ingest stable (not radioactive) iodine. The pills and syrup (for children) had been prepositioned at evacuation centers. The order recommended taking a single dose, with an amount dependent on age:
Baby 12.5 mg
1 mo.-3 yrs. 25mg
3-13 yrs. 38mg
13-40 yrs. 76mg
40+ yrs. Not necessary
Radiation Measurements
Radiation levels near Fukushima Daiichi and beyond have elevated since the reactor damage began. However, dose rates in Tokyo and other areas outside the 30-kilometre zone remain far from levels which would require any protective action. In other words they are not dangerous to human health.
At the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, radiation levels spiked three times since the earthquake, but have stabilized since 16 March at levels which are, although significantly higher than the normal levels, within the range that allows workers to continue onsite recovery measures.
http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.html
The U. S. has a long history of less than full disclosure over radiation concentrated by cows in milk, including radiation from the Nevada Test Site that rained down over this country for decades.
http://www.ieer.org/latest/iodnart.html
They didn’t say which models they sent, but here are some iRobot models. I’m guessing they sent two 710s and two 210s. I’m not seeing the phrase “radiation hardened”, so they may prove to be less than useful. There are product videos.
linky
my firedoglake blog, on radiation detectors in USA is about to pop off the page.
http://my.firedoglake.com/marinara/2011/03/18/theres-just-one-detector-for-radiation-contamination-on-the-entire-west-coast/
When news channels say there is no radiation, they are quoting the wrong type of radiation detector. The health risk is not direct radiation, but radioactive fallout.
There is only a single fallout detector for the west coast. A few hours before my diary falls off can i get some help.
No. Theirs are better than ours.
Those long buildings on the ocean side of the reactor house the turbines/generators. If you will notice you will see joints on the roofs that mark the different turbine rooms for the different reactors.
On the ocean side of the turbine rooms, near the ends, there are roll-up doors. These are high, steel doors that are made in sections. These doors were closed when the tsunami hit, and the force of the water tore the door on the left end turbine building off–two sections of it can be seen scattered in front of the opening with the upper section still hanging, but sideways in the opening.
The seawater pumps are sitting upright just above the intakes, two for reactor 1 and three for reactors 2 and 3. None are visible for reactor 4.
Does anyone know where the plant emergency generators were situated? The tweet by the plant worker said they were on the seaward side of the plant, but where? Everything on the seaward side seems to be a wreck.
Above reactor 1 is the transformer station. It appears that a rather large portion of the blast from #1 was directed in its direction because there is a lot of damage on the reactor-facing end of the building.
Finally, I was castigated a few days ago for questioning why explosive hydrogen was vented into any enclosed space. From information becoming available, it may have not been done by the operators intentionally, but that there was actually a failure of the drywell cap gasket which allowed H2 at several atmospheres pressure to enter the building. The operators intended to allow it to build to a pre-determined pressure inside the dry well and then to vent it to outside air. After unit one exploded they failed to realize the significance of the failure and continued with the procedure for the other reactors and there was an identical failure at reactor 3, only with much more H2. Reactor 2′s gasket did not fail, or they vented it at a lower pressure. Failure at reactor 4 was from an entirely different source, maybe the storage pool. This is all entirely speculation, of course, but gasket leakage is more plausible than deliberate venting for #1 and #3. My own mea culpa is that I have also been on a team that failed to come to the correct conclusions as to the cause of an event, and the results of that failure were not pretty. Mechanical failure, lack of information and poor design do lead to significant damage, and it happens often enough that we call it the “law of unforeseen circumstances” in my shop. Unfortunately, when the failure is nuclear the results are not only local.
;^)
closer to the Divine, for sure
figures
And the rethugs want to cut tsunami warning systems out there as well.
I can’t believe the arrogance : ONE fallout detector counter
Noocluar is NOT the way to go…or maybe it is the way to really go.
I’m sure the cucharaches will survive and the meek shall inherit the earth.
I am not sure why these issues cause so much confusion.
Let’s start with the worst thing, a nuclear weapon. In Hiroshima the bomb blast released gigantic amount of radiation from nuclear fission. The nuclear material in the bomb before ignition, without any shielding would not have had any measurable radiation a mile away and perhaps only significant amounts at less than 100 feet. Holding it to your chest would give you a huge dose and burns and soon enough to kill you. (the dose is related to distance on an inverse square. If at 1 foot it is 1 REM then at 2 it would be .25 Rem etc.) If it had been ground up into dust and spread over a several square mile area then the radiation, the so called background radiation, would have been pretty high. I can’t guess how high. Maybe so you would get the annual ‘safe’ dosage limit that is what workers are allowed, in an hour a day or a month.
Then if you left the area the radiation amount would go back to zero, unless some of the dust got on your skin, went into your mouth and digestive tract or into your lungs. At which point that tiny bit of dust if it stayed in one spot and didn’t soon stop emitting radiation, and each element has a different profile of how quickly it loses its potentcy, would increase your chance of cancer.
Sheesh. So you see the massive instant or near instantly leathal dose comes first when there is actually a nuclear chain reaction. That can only happen in a bomb, a reactor, or when a lot of nuclear material usually uranium is in a small area, (with some other factors I won’t go into) There will be no nuclear chain reaction outside the plant. Only the presense of radioactive material. Most likely except very close to the plant will that radiation be high enough to be a concern in any time scale short of years. With a catch. As long as that contamination does not enter the body.
An article at HuffPost about Japanese wind farms after the quake.
Of course, all these elite media types are in the pocket of Big Wind, and they won’t tell you about the huge air spill that threatens thousands!
Your tweet or someone else’s tweet? You are not in Japan, I hope? ‘Cause I would feel like a real jackass for bellyaching about potential dangers on the west coast while getting information from an expert in Japan!
No, someone else’s tweet. I am in Colorado.
Fantastic article. Thanks.
I’m glad to hear that. I noticed your avatar was Japanese-inspired, so I was concerned.
Very interesting analysis and insight. Thank you!
Doesn’t that amount to confusing the radioactive material with the results of particle radiation?
Eating a spinach salad laced/tainted with caesium would be harmful.
Eating a spinach salad which had been exposed to particle radiation from caesium would be safe.
During this crisis, gaseous radioactive material has leaked out of the power plants. That’s the stuff we don’t want to end up eating.
Nice been looking for the possibilities. Food, air, water all to varying degrees and risks impacted. I called APCD and they said not in their mission.
Humanity needs to go back and repeat kindergarten given the truth of what happened in Japan, who participated and who plundered while the planet burned in nuclear fire. Shutting down the unconscionable international greed machine is absolutely required to save what’s left of the habitable planet and reorganize human society so it can actually survive.
“Adults: Adults older than 40 years should not take KI unless public health or emergency management officials say that contamination with a very large dose of radioactive iodine is expected. Adults older than 40 years have the lowest chance of developing thyroid cancer or thyroid injury after contamination with radioactive iodine. They also have a greater chance of having allergic reactions to KI.”
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/radiation/ki.asp
“A viral blog post claimed that there was no chance “significant radiation” would be released from damaged reactors in Japan, but despite having been republished widely around the Web, the post has not held up to scrutiny.
Identified as an “MIT research scientist,” Dr. Josef Oehmen wrote the post over the weekend with the title, “Why I am not worried about Japan’s nuclear reactors.” It was a modified version of an e-mail he sent to family and friends in Japan on Saturday evening, according to the blog where it was originally posted.
[...]
Oehmen’s essay has also been seized on by pro-nuclear partisans. A website called TheEnergyCollective.com — which is run by* Siemens AG, a major supplier for the nuclear industry — republished Oehmen’s blog post, and that version of the post alone was subsequently shared on social media sites 35,000 times. It was also posted on a pro-nuclear site called bravenewclimate.com.
[...]
UPDATE: TheEnergyCollective.com is not run directly by Siemens, but rather by a new media PR firm that works for Siemens called Social Media Today.”
http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2011/03/15/josef_oehmen_nuclear_not_worried_viral
“Social Media Today LLC helps global organizations create purpose-built B2B social communities designed to achieve specific, measurable corporate goals by engaging exactly the customers and prospects you most want to reach.
We help large companies leverage the enormous power of social media to build deeper relationships with potential customers and other constituencies that influence the development of new business.”
http://socialmediatoday.com/about
“Our peerless custom branded content is
• timely and compelling
• creates the conversation our sponsors used to just fantasize about
• a durable asset for your own syndication
• credible because it‘s created by trusted influencers. The same ones
that anchor our communities. ”
(link to pdf)
http://socialmediatoday.com/ClientFiles/4494817d-466b-4d25-8edf-39ee20ab8198/SMTBrandandModel.pdf
Oh, and the punchline. Here’s their site.
http://theenergycollective.com/
More: Could Unit 4 Storage Pool be leaking? US authorities have argued that the loss of cooling water in Unit 4′s spent fuel storage pool could be at least partially explained by a leak or damage to the storage pool walls or the “gate” that opens to allow transfer of fuel rod assemblies between the pool and the reactor vessel.
Union of Concerned Scientists has an explanation of one plausible reason for a leak in the “gate.” The gist is, the gate is normally sealed by an air pressurized seal driven by an electric air pump. The pump gets its power from the grid. Lose that and the air pump can’t seal the gate to ensure against leakage of water from the pool. As UCS notes, this scenario actually occurred at a US reactor, the Hatch facility in Georgia in 1986. It’s worth reading for the clear explanation, diagrams and actual pictures from other BWR plants.
Apologies is you’ve seen this
Japan Radiation Maximum by Prefecture
If the air pump thing is correct they all could leak. It seems odd the system would not be passive.
I suspect they will be dealing with these things for months and we will be speculating.
Is it iodized salt? ;-)
One caveat on my good scenario about the possible absence of high level background radiation only close to the site. That is if there is a melt down of the type where fuel inside the reactor continues to react and melt through the bottom of it and proceed below (the China Syndrome) into water causing a steam explosion ejecting much material into the air and the winds are blowing inland. Or, fires of the spent fuel in the pools.
Sheesh, so many qualifiers but those are necessary. The probabilities of the very best or worst scenarios cannot be known by outsiders and even for insiders they can only be educated guesses.
The gates remind me of the way canal locks work when vessels are raised or lowered to enter a higher or lower body of water.
Remember, the Callenger Space Shuttle Disaster was caused by O’ring failure:
Like space travel, nuclear power is an inherently high-hazard venture with an insupportable cost-benefit ratio.
Yep. Point of the design is to keep fuel rods totally immersed in water as they’re moved between storage pool and reactor vessel.
PJEvans, glad to see you’re spreading the joy around today ;-(
I just saw this comment from you over at Daily Kos:
So far, you’ve gotten two recommendations for that comment at DK. Why don’t you go back and continue to stink up the place over there. Apparently, they enjoy the smell. Me, I don’t find it the least bit like “perfume”.
Really?
That’s never a helpful sentiment to express, especially in the context of a global crisis.
more maps
Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Related Maps
Couple links.
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/
http://live.reuters.com/Event/Japan_earthquake2
Goodness, that’s quite a site. Chock full of credible-reading pro-nuke articles, selective quotes, questionable statements backing absolute positions. Whew! Couldn’t dig in too deep, don’t want to throw my lovely Mac through the window.
Agree. Just thinking of the design review during engineering meetings way back when these things were designed–mid-60′s.
Imagine Dilbert: “But what happens if you lose power? Won’t it fail?”
Pointy-hair boss: “Lose power? It’s a power station, hooked to the grid, with backup generators and a bank of batteries. It’ll *never* lose power!”
(Then Wally–the bald guy with the coffee cup–takes the job of investigating any possible power failure…)
Full disclosure: Wally is my hero.
I couldn’t find units anywhere? uSv/day is probably the most consistent with the numbers there, but would be a little non-standard. I hope it’s not uSv/hr based on the peak Ibaraki numbers. How is the maximum taken? (Maximum reading since previous time? Maximum reading out of several detectors?)
Probably nSv/hr based on other reports from Ibaraki.
brief interruption to give my thanks to all who are contributing to these threads. i’m reading them all — really wonderful interactive community coverage. jmo, but this is fdl at its best… thanks.
Clean. Safe. Too cheap to meter.
UC Berkeley detects trace amounts radioactive Caesium, Tellerium, Iodine in rainwater:
http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/UCBAirSampling
UC Berkeley Nuclear Engineering Air Monitoring Station
Results Log
“3/19 (10:34am): Rain fall from 3/17-2pm to 3/18-12:15pm. Preliminary results show trace amounts of radioactive iodine (I131, I132), cesium (Cs137, Cs134), and tellurium (Te132) which are not naturally occurring elements and are assumed to originate from the Fukushima nuclear site. In context, we also see Be-7 and Ra-226 which are naturally occurring isotopes that also show up normally in rain water. Preliminary analysis show levels remain well below that which would cause health effects. We are currently awaiting better calibration of our detector system to publish amounts.”
Admittedly, these levels are apparently far below the levels found around Fukushima, where the radiation is intense enough to cause acute injury (and, close enough to the reactors, death with sufficient exposure).
However, occupational exposure limits such as those used to calculate how much radiation exposure is “safe” for nuclear power workers don’t tell us about the risk of increased disease (or even death) among populations chronically exposed to radiation contamination at low levels.
In the days and weeks to come, this distinction may come to be of more relevance – though I hope that will not be the case.
Please note I am not saying that what has been detected at UCB is sufficient to cause increased risk of morbidity (disease) and /or mortality (death) in exposed populations.
Yet as even natural “background” radiation (I’m still unclear if that means pre or post onset of anthropogenic fission and fusion explosions in 1945 and 1952, respectively) is associated with some risk of human disease, as we face the prospect of weeks or months of Fukushima radiation elevating our exposure in some degree, the relevant question will be: to what extent if any may the additional radiation exposure be expected to increase morbidity and mortality in the exposed populations?
And though it goes without saying for any humane person, I should make this explicit:
Tonight my thoughts are with the people of Japan contending with direct and immediate risk of acute radiation injury. My heart goes out to them.
The interesting thing is that not all of the articles are written by their shills, but the shills comment on the articles to spin them. It’s like a shill honeytrap for people who would view or comment on the articles. All paid for by whoevers got the money, these people are your liars!
They’re very good people.
http://www.america.gov/st/washfile-english/2005/September/20050915165123ajesrom9.768313e-02.html#ixzz1GcNyqVdM
Kyodo
While I’m happy that they may be stabilizing #3 SFP, according to the IAEA #4 SFP has three times the assemblies, and one set is full-power (not spent). If it wasn’t dry before, it must be by now.
Forecast for Tokyo, noon Monday: Wind NE 12 – 23 mph. 100% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.64 in).
Al Jazeera blog:
Note the phrase “spray over”. That’s probably the best they can do. They went for the SFP they were sure they could hit, now they are trying the one they weren’t sure about. Let’s hope for the best from this effort.
Those numbers correspond, I suspect, to the amount of water they have sprayed at, not into, the pool. How much has actually gotten in is likely unknown. However, the are reporting some decline in temperature, so it would follow that a lot is getting where it needs to go, if these reports are accurate.
Interesting. This person says that some of the big problems could have been avoided if Tepco had implemented changes the US NRC recommended in 1988. His expectations of the outcome are grave.
Below is a quote from the person’s letter, and following that is the link to the NRC document.
http://www.debito.org/?p=8692
For your information the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued what they call a “generic letter” in 1988. In this generic letter, which I have sent to Debito-san, the NRC basically addressed this identical event (not tsunami, but total loss of grid power, station service, onsite generation, backup generation, and batteries) and recommended plants using GE Mark 1 reactors address this issue. This was 23 years ago and most or all plants in the U.S. have addressed this issue. It is obvious TEPCO did not with these units. The conclusions in the NRC letter are based on severe accident PRA analyses, which identified two critical areas for the older GE Mark 1 containments that should be improved.
• Alternate water supply to drywell spray & injection
• Better PRV depressurization capability
It is ironic that these were the 2 technical problems that were preventing the plants from reestablishing control in the initial stages of this incident. Had they been able to spray down the torus and drywell, thereby rapidly decreasing RPV and torus pressure, the low head pumps would likely have been available to cover the core. If this would have occurred, they probably would not have needed to resort to seawater injection.
NRC Letter here:
http://www.debito.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/8-29-1989-NRC.pdf
Also, at the Oil Drum someone notes the following:
This is from the latest (10:00 20 Mar) JAIF release.
“Water Injection started, Hydrogen from pool exploded”, is an update from the 22:00 19 Mar report.
The report is here:
http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_images/pdf/ENGNEWS01_1300583939P.pdf
from Reuters comment section:
The following is the latest status of each nuclear reactor at Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant.
No. 1: Workers are ready to restore power to the No. 1 and No. 2 reactors, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Tetsuro Fukuyama said on NHK Television today. The reactor was damaged on March 12 by a hydrogen explosion that destroyed the building walls. The reactor is rated level five in terms of threat on an international scale of 1-7.
No. 2: Engineers hope to use the power cable attached to the No. 2 reactor as a hub to restore electricity to the other five reactors, Tokyo Electric said. A March 15 explosion may have damaged the containment chamber. The reactor is rated a level five threat.
No. 3: Firefighters sprayed to control the reactor between 2 p.m. yesterday and 3:40 a.m. today, NHK reported. Similar actions March 18 managed to replenish water in the spent-fuel pool. Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said the radiation level has dropped near the reactor. The reading fell to 2,906 microsieverts per hour at 9 p.m. yesterday, down from 3,443 microsieverts per hour seven hours earlier, NHK said. A March 14 explosion damaged the unit’s fuel cover. The reactor is rated a level five threat.
No. 4: This reactor was undergoing maintenance when the March 11 quake struck. A fire broke out in the pond containing spent-fuel rods. The nuclear agency said March 17 there may be no water in the cooling pool. Japanese Self-Defense Forces sprayed water on the reactor this morning. Another dousing is expected in the afternoon, NHK said. Rated four in terms of threat.
No. 5: The temperature in the spent fuel pool fell to 37.1 degrees Celsius, as of 7 a.m., Kyodo News said. The temperature was 67.6 degrees 9 a.m. yesterday, Kyodo said. Temperatures should be kept below 25 degrees Celsius, according to IAEA guidelines. The unit was idle for maintenance before the earthquake.
No. 6: The temperature in the spent fuel pool fell to 41 degrees Celsius, as of 7 a.m., Kyodo News. A backup generator was fixed yesterday, according to a company press release. There’s no concern over water levels at the reactor and the company believes there hasn’t been any leakage of coolant in the unit’s containment vessel. The unit was idle for maintenance before the earthquake.
comment by Peter at 3/20/2011 2:40:11 AM7:40 PM
The temperature reductions are in the reactor 5 and 6 pools. I believe there is no functioning temp monitoring in 3 right now.
Yes
Solid. I hope he’s wrong!
Kyodo
so, now, is the pool intact? can it hold the water?
Japan Times
I’m a little curious as to why they stopped. The previous operation went on for 13 hours. Did radiation levels rise? Are they waiting to see what a little water in a dry, hot pool will do? Are they concerned about hydrogen? Did they break for tea and crumpets?
Hello to you all.
I have never blogged before nor did I EVER imagine I would. I am a bit lost and not even sure if I will be able to find a response! It is an adventure!!
Typing is not my forte! Oil drum was the first time I ever read a blog (for BP catastrophe) but never felt compelled enough to participate.
This has been an amazing experience! I fear I may have to start attending BA- Bloggers Anonymous shortly!
For the last 4 nights I print the days blog out, get into bed with “my book” – it’s the best “thriller” I have read in decades! An author would not be able to dream up this nightmare…
It occurred to me that maybe most of us want believe that government does know how to handle something other than vacationing or ordering the car being bought around!
In BP it was just BS! Maybe in this case society has been a bit harsh on Japanese administration. To say they have their hands full this week is the understatement of the week.
And yes, we all know we do have capacity and capability as it relates to search rescue restore etc. The epic portions of this nightmare make those abovementioned seem miniscule.
BUT, the nuclear ordeal, I believe, is as simple as no one truly knows what to do – period. Now, if the folks got on TV and said that truth the worldwide resultant hysteria would be as a fatal as whatever may be happening in the future.
Can anyone imagine Bush or Obama for that matter– crying and apologizing for anything
Another interesting angle to this whole nightmare, however, is that this is the only instance I can think of where those in power with affluence and means can not escape personally nor keep their friends and family safe.
I think that adds to the judgment calls being made. Those in power with money have never really had the notion that if I do not do this correctly my wife and kids are going to be x-rayed against their will. Personal fears. I do not think these folks deal with powerlessness often. Most citizens live with powerlessness daily
That being said – I need help!
I think they are (helicopter) focusing on 3 (media thinks it should be 4) because of this gem – I got goose bumps:
In November 1992, a fuel rod was broken through a handling error, and MOX dust was released during the mounting of MOX fuel rods to fuel assemblies in the fuel fabrication facility adjoining the MOX facility in Dassel, Belgium. In the event of such accidents, if the ICRP recommendations for general public exposure were adhered to, only about one mg of plutonium may be released from a MOX facility to the environment. As a comparison, in uranium fabrication facility, 2kg (2,000,000mg) of uranium could be released in the same radiation exposure. A one mg release of plutonium can easily happen during various smaller incidents.30
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread674597/pg1
Please enlighten!
I look forward (well not really you know what I mean) to hearing explanations about MOX! Thanx guys!
welcome!
ty!
Let me add my welcome to Suzanne’s. Sorry I have no answers for you but I do look forward to answers from one of our resident experts.
Just in case anyone was getting bored:
Tallahassee Examiner
ty! what time zones are our experts in anyone know!
Can’t be! (only kidding) like the world is not overwhelmed as it is!
Howdy, and welcome. Regarding the MOX, #3 reactor had 6% of its assemblies with MOX. There is some confusion as to whether it is loaded into the reactor (IAEA says TEPCO told them so), or in the SFP (apparently TEPCO told someone that). Let’s just hope they manage to keep it all contained.
NEWS ADVISORY: Pressure at No. 3 reactor’s containment vessel rising: nuke agency — Kyodo News Ticker
Dumb question — do you have to keep refreshing your page or is the dialog suppossed to keep rolling. The only way I see the next comment is to refresh and scroll all the way down and that cant be right!
tis right — you must refresh the page to see new comments :(
TY Suzanne!That(in this day and age)seems so”old”!
Oh, and this site has multiple sub-domains, with different styles. This one has nested comment sub-threads, and the new ones are not necessarily on the bottom.
Welcome, Bruce.
Ah, can you explain it a bit (how I do that!)
TY — there has got to be a different way to do this (other than refresh and scroll all the way down) if you guys had been going for longer it would take hours just to see, read and learn. Help someone!
I’m no expert, but welcome!
“The MOX fuel contains 95 percent uranium oxide — mostly the nonfissionable U-238 — with 5 percent fissionable plutonium. The traditional fuel used in most commercial nuclear reactors, including TVA’s, contains about 5 percent fissionable uranium-235.”
http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2009/jul/15/tva-explores-mixed-oxide-fuel-deal/
I remember reading a couple days ago, the amout of “MOX fuel” in a MOX fuel rod was about 6%. So the plutonium is 5% of that 6%.
It’s bad.
Here’s the MOX processors website, their favorite news articles.
http://www.moxproject.com/morepress.html
Madam, I am attempting to construct a pneumonic memory circuit with stone knives and bear skins…
Star Trek at youtube
That’s it. The site is in flux, a bit. Worth it, I think.
: )
Keep us advised on status of project!
I have found this place amazing I have learned so much about “Nightmare on Japan Street” here…..amazing – the heck with cable. Although I really do love Maddow!
I gave away the last of my TVs years ago. Nothing but lies and propaganda.
NEWS ADVISORY: Steps to reduce No. 3 reactor’s pressure to be taken swiftly: nuke agency — Kyodo News Ticker.
I haven’t pulled up anything else on this, but it doesn’t sound good. They filled (presumably) the SFP today, but have not mentioned any new actions with the reactor, which implies that the reactor has decided to take action on its own.
And no real info what did you mean with subthreads etc?
Tsunami warning now…..
Sorry old news! Not sorry but you know what I mean!
Each comment is a node. When you “reply” to a comment, you create a subthread rooted at that node, or continue an existing sub-thread. On this sub-domain (myFDL) the subthreads are represented by indentation. If you reply to something other than the main post, your comment is added below the comment to which you replied, and indented from it. So it may appear anywhere on the page, say 100 comments up.
This makes it easy to follow sub-threads, but hard to see where the new posts are.
On the other sub-domains all new posts appear at the bottom, with an indication of the comment number it came from. You can click a link to show the immediately preceeding post in the sub-thread, but you have to scroll around to find any earlier posts on the sub-thread. People here seem to like that better.
The Associated Press
TOKYO — Japan’s nuclear safety agency says pressure is again rising in one of reactors at the country’s tsunami-damaged nuclear complex — a setback that means operators will have to vent more radioactive gas into the environment.
Ah ha thank you! So this will go under your reply that makes sense in a way. TY Sir!
It’s good form to link to the article you’re quoting, Bruce, that way we can read it too.
: )
Oh, much to learn!
Kyodo
From the News Ticker:
NEWS ADVISORY: Temperatures at all spent fuel pools at Fukushima plant below 100 C: Kitazawa
NEWS ADVISORY: Radioactive substance detected in ‘shungiku’ leaf vegetable in Chiba
NEWS ADVISORY: Spinach from Tochigi Pref. detected with high radioactive substance
NEWS ADVISORY: Work to douse water on No. 3 reactor of Fukushima nuke plant resumed
Al Jazeera blog
Tokai is something like 100 miles away (just my memory). Check out the radiation blip from yesterday.
You may have to click on “Tokai”, “Graph”, “Last seven days”.
AP
Possible cause for the pressure rise.
Reuters: …it may take several days to connect power to No. 3 and No. 4 reactors …
Tokai is something like 100 miles away (just my memory). Check out the radiation blip from yesterday. It may be related to the work stoppage?
You wil have to click on “Tokai”, “Graph”, “Last seven days” to understand the scale of things — i.e., whatever happened was small compared to the earlier releases.
Disaster Porn
50-image slide show of tsunami damage at Reuters.
That’s a pretty thin round-up of news. I don’t know how they can be sure that all pools are below 100C without having working sensors. I don’t see how a tiny amount of water in #4 could have helped much.
Let’s hope for some progress in the pumps and controls in #2. They have to wrestle this beast down one unit at a time.
Units 5 and 6, plus the dry casks and common SFP seem to be stable. That’s over half the material at the plant, which is really great news.
It’s almost midnight Sunday in Tokyo. The forecast for all day Monday and most of Tuesday is winds from the N and NE, with rain. Hope they don’t have to do a release from #3 today.
As power is restored, the question of exactly how much damage was done to each reactor core will move to the foreground.
I believe we know that the zircalloy cladding in units 1-3 oxidized. We also believe (from the I-131 and Cs-137 readings before spent fuel problems were identified and likely before they could have happened, given the thermal inertia of the cooling ponds) that there was at least some melting of the fuel itself (inside the cladding).
If the damage is minor, then when the water can be circulated with the external power, there will be adequate cooling throughout the core. For greater damage, there will be greater difficulty in cooling some parts of the core, even with the external power available to circulate water.
Not out of the woods yet, as everyone following FDL knows. MSM is enjoying the war, of course. As Atrios points out, MSM loves the beginnings of wars.
except there is a general blog policy not to link to AP articles. AP has gotten very threatening about charging blogs for any AP excerpt over five words. if there is an interesting article up on AP, best to just say generally what the topic is, and we can google it.
and welcome!
Sorry if I’m repeating…I read through all the above but I’m also reading several other sites.
Interesting Kyodo summary of the stabilization of the spent fuel ponds at Units 5 and 6.
Gives some insight into the maximum upside possibilities for units 1-4. Of course, it will be much harder b/c of all that has happened.
From Kyodo, more solid information on the tsunami itself:
Tsunami crested more than 2x higher than expected worst-case scenario.
That should make everyone stop and think.
From an earlier thread: “Too big to fail is to big to build”.
I.e., should we simply ignore probabilistic risk assessments for projects like this and ask whether the (straightforward, direct) consequences of failure by any means are acceptable?
I think this would drive the development of energy systems mainly to very small installations, such as solar panels and windmills. Such systems are not without risks, but the cost of failure is reduced.
Life is very complicated. It remains obvious to me that the only obviously bad solution is to let anyone develop any power source they want and to charge whatever they want. I.e., that’s essentially the American system, b/c industry has raised enough money that way to capture the regulatory and legislative bodies. See: BP, MMS, cocaine, hookers, NRC, plant-life extensions beyond 2010, etc.
Uncharacteristically, Kyodo is not reporting source of spike in radiation noted above by lobster @ 6:37 am.
I’m looking everywhere I can think of to track this down. Any good ideas out there?
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/79837.html
Note that these locations are south and NW, while the winds have been mostly out to sea.
Sorry, the tsunami data above was not from Kyodo. It was from WNN.
I-131 has relatively short half-life and will not be a long-term hazard. Cs-137 will be there for decades.
NEWS ADVISORY: External power restored to No. 5 reactor of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant — Kyodo News Ticker
These aren’t showing a recent blip.
This site is showing a few recent blips. It is updated manually, but has great graphs.
I have a tremendous amount of respect for engineers (much less for management and for-profit enterprises). They can and have designed fantastic devices that for the most part function safely. But nothing can be built with a failure rate of zero, regardless of the care of the design or the willingness to spend money.
So, regardless, failures will happen. If the consequences of failure are such (deep-sea drilling and nuclear) that we cannot afford even one failure, the only alternative is to not build them at all.
BBC article lacks skepticism IMO, but argues that decay heat in reactor cores should now be 0.1% of full power (compared to 6% at shutdown).
If this is true regardless of degree of core melt, then the risk of catastrophic steam-driven explosion and widespread dispersal of tons of radioactive material associated with core-to-the-floor meltdown has now passed.
In that scenario, the greatest remaining risks would be something like: dispersal of spent fuel radiation by fire or smaller explosions; slow (non-explosive) but lengthy leakage of harmful core radiation sources by steam venting from cores; long-term inability to access plant leading to hard-to-predict failures associated with lack of ongoing maintenance of systems (such as the already occurring spent fuel pond problems — this is not a lame category); revelations of much greater releases or problems that we simply do not know about (leading to greater local harms that could be/have been avoided).
Anything else?
Looking at that Tokai spike in radiation (link content will update in real time and be lost. Mod: can you download graph and safe for the future?) there was a noticeable sudden increase in radiation far from the plant recently. For scale, the assumed loss of containment @ unit 2 is the initial big spike at this monitoring station.
The actual radiation level that is recorded in this graph is not locally dangerous in and of itself, but it means something happened that I cannot find reported anywhere.
Still hunting…
Yes, this fleep fellow is interesting, huh?
Down near the bottom, there is something going on at the North Fukushima monitoring station today. I’m not sure the timing works, though, because it would take time before the Tokai monitors would see it.
March 20, 11:40 AM local time is roughly when these distant detectors are seeing a momentary increase in gamma radiation.
If we were successfully at cold shutdown, there should not have been a pressure surge in #3 last night. Makes me think that enough melting (either assembly deformation or fuel pellet melting) has occurred that heat production is excessive.
The control of the reaction depends on the geometry of the components – pellets in rods, rods in assemblies interspersed with control rods, water baths in the spaces, assemblies racked at a particular spacing. Once you have any degree of melting, your geometries are compromised and it’s anyone’s guess what the results are.
Remember, there is another plant at Tokai that we were originally concerned about, that successfully went into cold shutdown. Maybe a minor incident occurred there?
I wonder if the short-term rise in gamma radiation is nothing more than local rainfall?
That seems to be story at Tsuruga (same site as before); precipitation occurs at same time as gentle rise in radiation (all at locally safe levels).
OTOH, the little spike at Tokai rises sharply and slowly decays. Looks different to me and more like earlier events that signified important events at Fukushima.
Good points. I agree completely w.r.t. geometry.
Shifting search to reports of incident at Tokai NPP itself.
Regarding the common SFP, IAEA reports that “Japanese authorities have confirmed that fuel assemblies there are fully covered by water, and the temperature was 57 ˚C as of 20 March, 00:00 UTC”
They also say that assemblies remain in the reactor SFPs for 18 months before moving to the common SFP.
See 4cdave above at 7:46 pm.
Now being reported widely. Pictures of the “rapidly expanding” oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico here.
Somewhere there is a very nervous canary…
I wonder if the Japanese weather reports will start including radiation forecasts like we do pollen forecasts here.
Just for the record: good summary from yesterday from Scientific American :
Another single graph, of readings at Fukushima Daiichi:
linky
Another clip from Scientific American:
[me: There is no way for an external analysis to produce an estimate of when the heat sources from the radioactive materials on site will be reduced sufficiently to disregard the possibility of further explosive releases. There were no trustworthy predictions of how this scenario or even some of the sub-scenarios would play out because it is all outside the domain of applicability of the best design codes and experiences. The USG does know more than has been publicly discussed, at the very least through the classified material associated with this report from the National Research Council in 2006, Finding 3D on page 58 (for example).]
As always, thanks lobster.
Would like SA to explain (among other things) how they know the corrosive effects of salt water on the stainless steel pipes will magically get suspended.
Engineers build what they are asked to build. The process looks like this:
Marketing and guys determine what they can sell and build a product description based on that, sometimes with engineering assistance, sometimes not. Finance people determine how much the engineers can spend to build it, product people determine the timeline for the project.
They issue specifications that are the “blue prints” for the engineering team to guide them in design.
Back and forth ensues as the engineers discover things they can and cannot do within the given limits of time and money and functionality.
Bottom line, usually the engineering is tight. It’s the specs that the engineers built to that often limits things. For instance at San Onofre, the plant is built to withstand a 7.0 in a neighborhood that is capable of 8+, and really piss-poor “tsunami wall” is built to somewhere around 20′ (though I still challenge that’s even a tsunami wall). You can bet that’s exactly what the specs called for.
Just my experience in a totally different field, greatly simplified, but it seems to be the Way Things Get Done.
Sheesh, I hate the lack of a preview with this software. Scratch the “and” after marketing in 2nd pp.
Yes, it’s supposed to work like that. It never did anywhere I worked, but it may somewhere. My experience was that specs coming into engineering looked like they were written by an 8-year old in orange crayon on a brown paper bag, and management outraged and stamping their feet that they can’t have a multi-year project by Monday, and demanding a detailed explanation of why not (the answer being, of course, that the brown paper bag wasn’t delivered five years ago).
But that’s not the point. It doesn’t matter how tight you make the specs, it is not possible to design a system that never fails in any circumstances, regardless of how tight you make them, how carefully you design, or how much money you are willing to spend. You can go from 3 nines reliability to 4 nines, maybe even 5 nines, but 100% can’t happen. If you run enough systems for a long enough time, a failure is inevitable.
If you are planning on using nuclear for thousands of years, you simply can’t declare a new permanent sacrifice zone of 100 square miles every twenty years. You simply can’t write off a Gulf of Mexico every 10,000 offshore wells.
“Radiation 5 to 7 times the legal limit has been detected in milk and spinach in parts of the country near the plant. The Japanese government said that drinking one glass of contaminated milk every day for an entire year would expose a person to the radiation equivalent to one CT scan. Radioactive iodine was also detected in Tokyo’s drinking water, although at levels considered safe.”
That was Edano, this guy has a serious issue with that characterization togh.
“CT scans emit radiation from the outside of the body in. Radioactive and biologically active isotopes in food emit radiation, when ingested, from the inside of the body out. The atoms of the particles become woven into the fabric of the tissue and alpha (U, Pu) and fission products irradiate the adjacent tissue with certain and known intensities. For as long as they stay in the body. Each one has a biological half time. In an environment of constant or increasing contamination , these substances reach a level in the body reflective of their availablity in food. The longer it goes on for, the more dangerous it becomes.”
http://nuclearhistory.wordpress.com/2011/03/19/the-precipice/
Japanese authorities are also saying shit like this.
“The education and science ministry said traces of another radioactive material, caesium-137, had been identified in tap water in nearby Tochigi and Gunma prefectures, but posed no danger to people even if ingested.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/20/japan-nuclear-crisis-fukushima-workers
IAEA updates and info (linked from Japan section of FDL front page) says two interesting things. I do not sense concern since 57 < 100, but w.r.t. the spent fuel ponds:
"According to IAEA experts, a typical spent fuel pool temperature is kept below 25 °C under normal operating conditions. The temperature of a spent fuel pool is maintained by constant cooling, which requires a constant power source.”
I have not seen it stated anywhere that the power to circulate and cool the water in the common spent fuel pond is back up. The temperature in that pool is not alarming but it is higher than normal:
“In addition to pools in each of the plant’s reactor buildings, there is another facility — the Common Use Spent Fuel Pool — where spent fuel is stored after cooling at least 18 months in the reactor buildings. This fuel is much cooler than the assemblies stored in the reactor buildings. Japanese authorities have confirmed that fuel assemblies there are fully covered by water, and the temperature was 57 ˚C as of 20 March, 00:00 UTC.”
[me: At some point they will either say that the temperature in this pool has risen further or that the temperature is now falling.]
[emphasis added]
A few days ago, we were all asking why the spent fuel pond was placed where it was in this reactor design.
The NYT has an answer posted.
Creative presentation of radiation doses, risks, etc. here.
I like the disclaimer at the bottom the best.
IAEA update:
If the water injected into the reactors is not being released as steam where is it going? If it is condensing into the torus, shouldn’t it have been full long ago? Of course, we know nothing about the flow rates.
Any steam releases will be concentrating salts in the plumbing. Should be awfully briney about now.
Which is in contrast to a statement earlier today that all SFPs were below 100C. Perhaps they meant “all the ones we know about”.
The wind in Tokyo has swung around almost to the North, and the weather is reported as “rain mist”. It will take some hours for any airborn contamination to reach the main city.
Looks like the crisis mode is over. Not out of the woods yet for a catastrophic release of contamination but the probability drops each hour.
So the future months and years of contamination exiting the site will take on a dull normal aspect. XXX premature deaths per 100,000 will ensue and it may be decades before those equal the number killed by the tsunami.
Looks like the crisis mode is over. Not out of the woods yet for a catastrophic release of contamination but the probability drops each hour.
So the future months and years of contamination exiting the site will take on a dull normal aspect. XXX premature deaths per 100,000 will ensue and it may be decades before those equal the number killed by the tsunami.
More realtime radiation data:
SPEEDI
On the one hand it says “realtime”, on the other hand it says “maximum” and “last updated 7:00″, so I’m not sure exactly what we’re seeing. Units are nano-Grays/hr. Ibaraki is currently reading 1805. We’ll see if that goes up.
Clicked through to the mobile site.
Here is a site that is currently showing another rapid increase (though the overall level is still low).
Since 16 March there have been no such rapid spikes. Now there are two in one day, pretty distant from the Fukushima NPP.
I’ll be interested to know what this is all about when it is finally reported.
If there is a reporter poking around the interwebs for leads to follow…this is an interesting thread, I think. Tug on it! Something is releasing radiation today at levels not seen since the presumed loss of containment on unit 2 and shortly thereafter.
I doubt it is correlated with the increase in pressure reported today in unit 3, but I cannot think of anything else that is on the table that is a better candidate, given current reporting.
Well, there is the NPP that had trouble at the time of the earthquake and for a couple of days following that 4cdave pointed out: Tokai Daini
Address: 1-1 SHIRAKATA, TOKAIMURA, NAKA-GUN, IBARAKI-KEN, JAPAN
Latitude: 36 : 27 : 45 : N
Longitude: 140 : 36 : 36 : E
According to this map, Fukushima Daiichi NPP is (was) supposed to get two new units (7, 8) soon.
I hadn’t heard that before.
Yes, I’m just killing time, avoiding work and other responsibilities.
If we are your excuse to avoid work, carry on!
The link to the Tokai radiation detector is now showing another spike, this one as high as the initial big spike back when containment was (presumably) lost for the first time, on the 15th at Fukushima.
The absolute level of radiation seen at this detector remains low.
The jump is a factor of 8 or 9, as far as I can tell. That magnitude of change in the level of gamma radiation has been reported reliably so far, but not today.
There are three candidates for the jumps that I can see. In order of likelihood IMO:
1) It is raining at the sites of the detectors as far as I can tell, and the timing of the rainfall coincides with the jump in radiation levels. It is known that rain precipitates particulates from the atmosphere, including radioactive particulates. I have said more than once this week that people should stay out of the rain if they have a choice for this reason. Implications for this particular set of readings? Some combo of:
a) No big deal, because the levels are still low and do not threaten life.
b) Something to think about, because according to the info supplied at the websites with these detectors, the base level is normally 0.03 micro-Gray and rain can increase that two-fold. In the current situation, the baseline has been higher since the first loss of containment (in Ibaraki Prefecture, seems to me to be around 0.3 micro-Gray, a ten-fold increase compared to March 14) and the change that appears to be associated with rain is an 8-fold increase, not a 2-fold increase. It would take someone wiser than me in the ways of meteorology to opine about what this might mean about the quantity and vertical distribution of cesium dust. Note, however, that if rain intensifies local deposition by a factor of ~ 10 as a general rule, you would not really choose to live in an area near Fukushima where it tends to rain a lot.
2) There could have been releases today from Fukushima on the same scale as March 15-16. Given the flat-line of the detectors for the days in between, this would not likely be some artifact of the direction of the wind, which would probably have more variance. I think it would be bad news if there were radiation releases going on today at Fukushima at the level of March 15, the day (possibly until now) most of the radiation was released beyond the plant boundaries.
3) Unreported events at the Tokai nuclear power plant. According to the maps and my limited ability to interpret them, these monitoring stations are just a couple of miles or so from the Tokai Daini NPP. Are they venting there? Are there pressure spikes at one of the Tokai reactors?
By “reported reliably so far” in the previous, I meant “reported reliably by the Japanese press so far”.
Thanks, lobster.
I suppose we’ll have more definitive readings in a day or so, but it seems that, barring further major releases, the contamination is not all that great. The high readings at the plant may have been due to exposed fuel rods rather than particulate contamination leaked via steam or directly from fuel rods.
We’ve still got three damaged reactors and four damaged SFPs, and a site full of wreckage and radiation. We’ve still got questions about whether the pumps and plumbing are serviceable, or whether there will be long delays and dangerous working conditions to replace them. We’ve still got seawater corroding the reactor vessels and plumbing. We still may have a crack in #2. We’ve almost certainly got partial melting in the reactors, and possibly in the SFPs, with the uncertainty that brings.
A catastrophic natural disaster, corporate and government bungling, versus unrelenting determination and downright heroism on the part of the plant workers. It looks like they are wrestling this raging beast to the ground.
We aren’t out of the woods yet, but any means, but I was really worried what this rain might bring. If it isn’t any worse than this, I think we ducked a bullet.
Cheers, I hope so.
This morning on morning joe, (only a quick stop) they reported the water boiling in one of the spent fuel pools. I know nothing from anything here, but my question was, why? If they have electricity going, what is keeping them from being able to cool this particular pool. I think it was unit 3, but not sure. If they are injecting saltwater, why can’t they do this successfully to stop the boiling? with unit 3?