The good news is that over the last two weeks or so at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear plant, there have been no further spectacular explosions, no new massive breaches of containment or as far as we know, massive releases of radiation, though there continue to be dangerous levels inside the reactors, in nearby water and in surrounding areas.
The bad news is the Japanese authorities have been unable to make substantial progress against the massive quantities of contaminated water still leaking from the damaged units. In the last three days, for example, they attempted to pump contaminated water out of the flooded trench outside Unit 2′s turbine building, but managed to lower the water level by only a few centimeters. In previous weeks, they would pump some out one day, but then find the water rising back the next with varying degrees of radiation, because water injected into the reactors leaked and found its way out and downhill.
Also discouraging, as they slowly and haltingly begin to take a closer look inside the reactor buildings — see TEPCO photos here — they’re discovering such massive structural damage that each day’s plans and assumptions get scrapped. They’re now on ad hoc plan #xqb and tomorrow it may be #yrz.
As lobster reported a week ago, the utility owner, TEPCO, released what it called a “roadmap” and some news media called a “blueprint” but which was neither. To me, it seems a package of optimistic goals laying out in logical sequence the problems that must be overcome, with some vague timeframes — three months, six to nine months — designed to reassure the Japanese people and themselves that there is hope things will get better over time.
I thought the most important revelation then was TEPCO’s acknowledgement that their best case recovery plan, which assumed the normal cooling systems could be restarted soon after external electrical power and controls were restored, has been abandoned. This was not suprising; it always seemed likely that critical pumps, valves, seals, meters and controls that operate those cooling systems would have been at least partially damaged by the 9.0 quake that greatly exceeded design capacity.
The only question was: how much damage had these systems sustained? And indeed, in the weeks after external power was restored to the control rooms at each unit, TEPCO admitted that various pumps and valves were too damaged to repair and would need to be replaced. It sounded like they just needed to order a few parts. That was then.
The “roadmap” documents let us know that TEPCO now realizes that if it wants something better than its current ad hoc water injections, it must completely rebuild the cooling systems, or even create an entirely new cooling system. The new system would replace the current ad hoc approach of just dumping water from above (Unit 4′s spent fuel pool) or injecting it from the outside (Units 1-3 reactors) through external hoses and pumps.
The current system is not a closed loop, and it leaks badly; they inject water one day, and it boils off or leaks out the next, requiring continuous reinjections with more and more water. And that’s just to stabilize the assumed level of fuel exposure and melting that’s already occurred in the Units 1-3 reactor vessels and Unit 4′s spent pool. The new system would presumably be a closed loop, just like the original system, so that if water boiled to steam, the steam would be captured, condensed back to water, cooled and returned to the reactor vessel for more cooling, while keeping the core covered.
That immediately raised the question, which I’ve not seen even discussed, is how do you build such a system? It would be one thing to take a never used reactor vessel outside a contaiment structure and refit it with new injection/release pipes and seals and attach those to valves, pumps, pipes, controls, etc. But how do you do that to the still hot reactor vessels inside the contaimment structure at Units 1-3 that have full radioactive cores and that have to be continuously cooled with the existing ad hoc water injection? If there’s even a conceptual design for that, I haven’t seen it mentioned.
Let’s take the problem one step further. Let’s assume that eventually they can do better than the tiny robots that have only managed to crawl a few meters into the reactor building to take photos and measure radiation. They’ll need much larger robots and heavy equipment to clear away the explosion debris and allow radioactive cleanup crews to make it possible to work inside for more than a few minutes. What next?
In the April 2 post where I summarized the AREVA presentation on the accident sequence, we explained a sequence in which the space between the outer containment structure and the reactor vessel inside that containment could gradually fill with radioactive steam and hydrogen. Some of that steam could condense and leave water inside the containment structure. As we explained elsewhere, water is also probably leaking into the containment structure from, for example, damaged seals for the piping that carries water/steam to/from the reactor vessel, making it difficult to keep the core covered, because the leak points are below the top of the fuel rods.
About the same time, the New York Times had a report describing other concerns by US experts. One of those concerns, buried at the end of the story, was that the ad hoc measures to pump outside water into the system would gradually fill up the containment structure, which was not designed to hold lots of water. Water is heavy. The weight/force of that water on the structure, coupled with continuing afterquakes, might eventually cause the containment structure to fail.
Now it seems that warning is being taken seriously. According to this report, TEPCO is now worried about how much water the containment structure at Unit 1 can safely hold if there is another significant afterquake. And if that’s a problem at Unit 1, it could become a problem at Units 2 and 3.
Is excessive water injection also a concern at Unit 4? Apparently so. This NHK World report says TEPCO is now worried that the pace of water dumping into Unit 4′s spent fuel storage pool — and remember, that exposed pool has a full core load of non-spent fuel — could make the structure supporting the storage pool, and thence its walls and steel lining, vulnerable to a serious afterquake. It’s a concern similar to that at Unit 1, except the pool is totally outside any containment structure. If the integrity of that pool, which may already be leaking, is suspect, their “roadmap” boils down to hoping Mother Nature gives them a break.
Sources:
NHK World
Kyodo News
Hi-res photos
IAEA Updates
Union of Concerned Scientists




53 Comments

Thanks for continuing to report on this for us Mr ‘Crow
What. what ???? I thought this was over ? There’s nothing on the news so it’s nothing, right ? /s
Thanks for the updates, really,:-)
Thanks!
Do you have any thoughts on Arnie Gundersen’s evaluation of the situation? In a recent video (5 days ago), he analyzes some information about pressure and temperature in the reactors and also takes issue with some of what TEPCO has said about on-going problems with reactor 4.
http://vimeo.com/22586794
From that, it seems that there are more on-going problems than it seems from a lot of the reporting that I’ve seen in my attempts to follow events.
Scarecrow,
Thanks for keeping us up to date on this. Can any of the reactors be cemented in now? I’m really not sure what or why they continue to fool around with this.
Just a little OT:
Proof of the vote rigging.
http://www.buzzflash.net/story.php?id=1428646
What an absolutely stupid technology.
Thanks for the continuing updates. They’re excellent.
Scary part hole burned through floor #2 if true.
Japan is the prefect laboratory to show what happens when you have a regulatory environment that allows companies to do whatever they want. Instead of spending a $100,000 or so to bury the back up system diesel fuel tanks, as was required in newer plants, Daiiche decided to save on the expense, and as a result when the Tsunami came, Daiiche watched as their fuel tanks floated away.
And our genius politicians want to do away with regulations and go back to the days of the Wild West. Well in Japan it is like the Wild West for their companies.
That immediately raised the question, which I’ve not seen even discussed, is how do you build such a system? It would be one thing to take a never used reactor vessel outside a contaiment structure and refit it with new injection/release pipes and seals and attach those to valves, pumps, pipes, controls, etc. But how do you do that to the still hot reactor vessels inside the contaimment structure at Units 1-3 that have full radioactive cores and that have to be continuously cooled with the existing ad hoc water injection? If there’s even a conceptual design for that, I haven’t seen it mentioned.
How do you build such a system with robots robots who first have to clean up structural damage just to get to the cooling system never mind rebuild it?
My understanding is they have to get the fuel cooled down to the point where there’s no longer a threat of uncontrolled renewed fission, before they think about building a tomb. And I assume, but am not sure, that they need to remove as much of the fuel as possible from the cores and definitely from the out-of-containment spent fuel pools, put that fuel in longer-term storage, and only then dismantle and/or bury the rest. I suspect this will take years, if they’re lucky.
Now on this earth there are no defenders of the capacity of the planet to nourish and replenish. The political party of our own presidency does not even see fit to list the environment as an issue to be addressed by government.
We have yet so see any evidence of there being any permanent solution for leaking of radioactivity from these Japanese nuclear reactors and waste, much less a time table. It may well go on for decades if not centuries.
I have just about become resigned to the fact that we have entered the phase of decay of human culture and death of the species man. Sort of a “On The Beach” in slow motion.
I’ve seen a couple of those videos. He appears to be extrapolating from radiation findings and temperatures that are also available to others. Different experts then use different models that simulate what must be happening inside the core to produce those measurements, but the models don’t agree with each other. I don’t see others reaching the same conclusions, but I don’t have sufficient expertise to say whose conclusion are the most reliable. He’s worth watching, just for clarity of the explanations.
Yeah. You either assume it will never happen, or you assume it might and then ask yourself whether you’re prepared to live with the horrific outcome. This is a good reminder that the first choice is not wise.
Bury the reactor you can’t expect to keep the rods covered with water continuously odds are another earthquake, a hurricane etc will happen and that will stop the water from cooling the rods for awhile again.
That means more leaks of radiation. Odds are against Japan building a new cooling system inside an already built reactor so radioactive robots will like have to do most of the work.
Bury the reactor and save the lives of how many construction workers who will likely die years earlier from cancer trying to fix the cooling system.
Or the Japanese can run the risk like they are doing now and if something else goes wrong the nuclear industry world wide will likely collapse.
Thus sparking a World Wide Depression.
A big radiation leak that kills fish could cause war with China and North Korea North Korea is starving even in good economic times.
Just how much of Japan will be evacuated radiation has already reached Tokyo in low levels now imagine finding a place for everyone in Tokyo to live if the place has to be evacuated.
We have yet so see any evidence of there being any permanent solution for leaking of radioactivity from these Japanese nuclear reactors and waste, much less a time table. It may well go on for decades if not centuries.
Scarecrow lays out the impossibility one step at a time hoping I think that someone can prove him wrong.
Its safer,cheaper, easier and quicker to just burt the reactor yes there will be some leaking but those rods are radioactive for years and despite our best engineering we could not keep those rods cooled and safe for even the span of one human lifetime.
I don’t think engineering can keep the safe for 10 or more human lifetimes. Its time to stop nuclear power.
I am open to thorium or fusion power.
Move along folks nothing to see here anymore. On to the next disaster of deregulation.
The first choice is not wise but it is quite common.
Unfortunately for plant and animal life across the globe
I’ve worked on piping including in nuclear power plants and there is no way to build anything in those crapped up environments. I will qualify that, nothing can be built with heavy pipe. In that the pressures are low I suppose it is possible light weight hose and lighter pipe not needing welding could be used to cobble things together but breaking into the current piping systems is bound to be fraught with problems.
Japan Nuclear Watch, April 23: Can You Rebuild a Cooling System Inside a No-Go Zone?
I don’t see how but if you are willing to have enough workers willing to commit suicide by working in radiation anything is possible.
Will the Nuclear Emperor ask the sacrifice is the question?
So they would have to repair not replace everything how long would such a job take under normal conditions?
Can they route the new pipes outside the building to pumps and power outside the building and have the pipes snake in through holes in the building into the tank.
Granted plenty of chances for radiation contamination if something goes wrong and a pipe leaks Murphy’s Law suggests that something will go wrong but at this point stupid rules.
If I want to predict the future I must assess the stupid:(
So I came up with the most half ass idea I could to answer Scarecrow’s question in the title of his post.
So unless you believe in Magic or Robots that can fix the Cooling Systems plumbing and the electronics then the fuel rods will keep catching fire. The robot would have to repair and move around the debris of nuclear reactors that have been damaged by an 8.9 Richter Scale earthquake and a 30 foot tidal wave plus various fires and blasts
I am doubting that lead suits can keep the workers alive long enough to do the job.
After all if they could then the Japanese would already be working on fixing the cooling system by now.
I am not meaning to be rude to Kirk but I don’t see how things can get better please Anybody feel free to try and prove me wrong.
By: ThingsComeUndone Wednesday March 16, 2011 1:08 am
http://my.firedoglake.com/thingscomeundone/2011/03/16/robots-magic-are-they-our-only-hope/
Predicting the future:)
Yes, this is a topic on which I would be greatly relieved to be proved too pessimistic.
Me too.
Best update on this on the web I’ve seen in days. Recommended, and reprinted at Progressive Alaska.
The design is easy. Just repair and replace the cooling systems are originally designed. Possible the backup generators and fuel tanks could be elevated somewhat. /s
Planning and execution? Hard. Very hard. The piping is maybe sound, then it is a question of replacing heavy machinery (pumps and motors) from a distance. I wonder if the valves are sound? Most large plant is designed with valves either side of the pump to enable pump replacement.
We are about to see the remote equipment used in the deep-sea oil industry redesigned and mounted on wheels, then used in the repairs. The remote equipment can be designed and built (which takes time).
Valves are simple equipment and hard to damage, although tons of concrete falling on any equipment damages the equipment.
Mission planning for a positive outcome? Possible, NASA do this all the time with complex remote equipment (which is impossible as we all know a Government cannot do anything correctly, but the private sector can execute flawlessly /s)
Leaks? Pump in the grout.
Will there be further failures? Yes. Disasters have a way of multiplying, and this was a quick initial disaster, followed by a slow build up to a worse case.
TEPCO? Bankrupt.
Just a tech note: they can’t just “bury the place” until
1) the fuel has been cooled down
and
2) the fuel rods are separated into masses small enough for safe burial.
Otherwise, if simply buried in place, the materials would just burn through the concrete… and that would be only the start of a very, very bad day.
Attempts at #1 are underway but the cooling methods improvised so far are inadequate to the task.
#2 can’t even be started until they can get something close enough to examine and, where needed, manipulate the fuel assemblies.
The tanks are up high surely some material that won’t burn can be placed under them if the rods burn through the tanks.
The goal is to prevent oxygen from hitting the tanks and the rods being exposed to air and spreading radiation all over the place.
The goal is to stop pumping water which is leaking now and will keep on leaking until the cooling system is repaired in months. We have to consider the damage of months of radioactive water eventually hitting the water table.
We can’t clean a water table under ground. I don’t know how far the water table extends toward major population centers. But imagine evacuating Toyko and then having to provide the population of Tokyo fresh water.
Next hurricane season is coming between that and the possibility of another earthquake in the months before we expect a new cooling system to get working can we afford the wait any stop to the rods getting cooled by water long enough to expose the rods to air will cause the rods to start reacting to air and spreading radioactivity.
Yes burying the rods will likely mean radiation will hit the environment but not as much if the rods get exposed to air .
If the rods get exposed to air and the wind takes the air to the ocean we face world wide starvation from no more fishing in the Pacific which means war.
If the wind blows toward China and North Korea we face war.
and put them where?
Thanks for keeping this information coming.
Planning and execution? Hard. Very hard.
From what Scarecrow and Rapier51 say I thinks its near impossible. Never mind nobody has done a full inspection of all the plants structure a cooling system inside the plants maybe moot if the structures the plants are in can’t be repaired before the new cooling system can be installed assuming it can be.
Ruble in the plants has to be removed first before the structure can be inspected then how long will it take robots to check every weld in the structure’s steel frame for cracks let alone every crack in the cement floor?
Then add in time for robots to make the repairs I assume robots are slower than people unless the task is repetitive. Guys controlling the robots working off a camera will also slow things down.
As my link suggests Magic would be needed :)
Book Salon up with Nadia Idle and Alex Nunns’s Tweets From Tahrir: Egypt’s Revolution As It Unfolded, In the Words of the People Who Made It hosted by Siun
TEPCO is reporting that a highly radioactive chunk of concrete debris was found near Unit 3, 30 centimeters by 30 centimeters (about 1 foot by 1 foot) and emitting 900 millisieverts per hour. Hard to believe there isn’t a whole lot more where that came from.
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/24_01.html
We were right to challenge the PR spin that TEPCO had a “road map” to recovery from these quadruple nuclear disasters (not a single disaster that the press reduces it to). It’s not even a guide, and it’s notion of a “schedule” is tragically laughable. As you say, it’s a wing and a prayer, and the wing has a crack in it.
thanx Scarecrow!
Replacement or repair of anything in the piping system within primary containment will be almost impossible, it’s too crapped up. In addition the way things are crammed together in those MK I’s makes working around them an absolute nightmare.
Remember however all they have to do is circulate water while removing heat from the outbound water to pump cooled water back in, in a closed loop. If they can. So it is a matter of finding entry and exit points from the existing system and tying in. Since it is not high pressure anymore, and I am not kidding, hose will be used probably. How they get the heat out of the recirculating water is a problem. A heat exchanger, ie radiator is needed. You don’t want to bring the hose, pipe or whatever too far away because any failure will then spread contamination.
And it needs to be said again and again the contamination is so huge that workers must wear full PC’s with respirators everywhere and this makes any job 20 times as hard and of course the dosages they are getting is large. It takes a lot of bodies to do small little things.
A major repair of a non damaged clean plant is done after years of planning. They they throw huge amounts of people into the job. Here there is no plan. It’s all ad hoc and the whole site is a radioactive hell and getting worse every day.
Where they put any new piping or hosing is secondary to hooking up to the existing pipes. While the further away from containment you get the bigger the problem if there is a failure and leaks from the new pipes/hose. It’s finding ways to hook into the current system that is the problem. Some of these pipe loops have no entry point or none of sufficient size. The systems are welded pipe. Then too if there is not a current opening that is valved then how do you open it without thousands of gallons water filled with fuel gush out?
How long can workers work in the reactor 20 minutes an hour how many thousands of workers would be needed after getting the max dose of radiation after lets say after an hour’s worth of work.
Any estimates on the thousands of man hours needed?
Also we really need to ask can robots really do all the work?
[blockquote][em]“The tanks are up high surely some material that won’t burn can be placed under them if the rods burn through the tanks.”[/em][/blockquote]
Stop the fuel in the pools in a meltdown? Nothing on this Earth.
There seems to be a misapprehension here about the purpose of the cooling. The cooling is to keep the rods from melting together even further and approaching even closer to critical mass.
Stop the cooling now and that’s what will happen: multiple worst-case scenarios of a complete meltdown… all at more or less the same time.
The bottom floor of the reactor core containments are supposedly built to handle the eventuality of the total core fuel mass going critical… and they’re not doing too well.
The far greater mass of fuel in the pools? As I said, nothing on this Earth could stop that once it goes critical.
It’s [strong]got[/strong] to be separated out first.
The systems are welded pipe. Then too if there is not a current opening that is valved then how do you open it without thousands of gallons water filled with fuel gush out?
Very good question. Also leaks from the new pipes/hose thats another concern.
It’s finding ways to hook into the current system that is the problem.
This is the most important question how if they can’t do this then they have to bury it or build a whole new system?
Regardless the Japanese government has to answer this question or else admit they don’t know yet.
Great post and thread. Thanks to Scare and all the great comments.
The bottom floor of the reactor core containments are supposedly built to handle the eventuality of the total core fuel mass going critical… and they’re not doing too well.
Ok meltdown with the fuel rods is a valid concern storing so many spent
fuel rods together that they can go critical is a problem for every nuclear reactor in America.
A problem America is doing something to correct?/s
A debate on odds of the fuel rods going critical vs the odds of the rods being exposed to air before we get a new cooling system built and which scenario causes the most damage is going to be needed.
I admit the spent fuel rods going critical was not something I had considered.
All my warnings about the problems putting up a new cooling system still stand.
In other words things are worse than I thought and I’m not an optimistic person. Heck I normally am accused of spreading panic.
Chernobbyl is getting a $2.6 billion new cover.
We are trying to decide whether to return to Tokyo (250km from Fukushima). We are in Budapest, with two children 1 and 5. We have two years left on a research contract. What we wonder is this: did childhood cancer rates increase in Kiev (80km from Chernobyl) after Chernobyl?
Yes. Especially thyroid and lymph cancers. There are reports that Chernobyl has unofficially resulted in the deaths of as many as 400,000 people. There was a link posted on one of the last few updates here to a photo slide-show with audio. The photos focus on the current child victims in the areas surrounding Chernobyl. These kids are still facing disfiguring cancers resulting in limb amputations.
I’m late to the party but I brought some more meat for the stew.
http://japanfocus.org/-Makiko-Segawa/3516
They brought over these huge concrete sprayers. I think the nonsense about repairing the pumps is a distraction from the real plan which is to bury the reactors in concrete. It should be obvious that spraying is not a long-term fix, nor can it reasonably be said that after dumping tons of seawater onto the reactors from the air, they are in any way capable of being repaired.
I actually don’t think this is a distraction. I believe the concrete pumps are a reasonably effective way of getting water into the SFPs, which is work that will be ongoing for months to come. The firehoses and helicopter drops were only marginally effective. The concrete pump truck has allowed more accurate delivery, and with equipment attached to the pump arm they have been able to photograph and check radiation levels of the water in the pools. The problem is that there was only one such truck, and no redundancy. Now they have several (although I don’t know how many are actually on site at Fukushima #1 as of today). I think the fact that the recently-delivered trucks can be operated by remote is another plus. Just my view (from Tokyo).
Lately I’m starting to wonder if it would make sense to take the existing fuel out of #5 and #6, and to try to move some of the fuel into those reactors (where the cooling systems are apparently working).
Also wondering about the core in #4. If this is also undamaged, maybe they can move some fuel into there as well.
Sorry, hit the Reply button before I was finished with this. Looking at it now it looks ridiculous. Just trying to think if it made sense to move the fuel so they could effect repairs to the pools and the cooling systems, rather than keeping the fuel in the pools while they effect repairs.
As a Tokyo resident with kids (older than yours) I can say I feel pretty confident that my family is not in imminent danger at the present time. I check the radiation readings daily. I read the newspapers and local and foreign sites for updates. Like you I was curious as to the impact on the health of people in Kiev from Chernobyl. The number of people who developed cancer as a result of the Chernobyl disaster has become a political football, and it is hard to find objective information. I have heard that many (if not most) of the thyroid cancers around Chernobyl were the result of drinking milk that had high levels of iodine 131 in it, but again, it is hard to find data on this. I think your level of safety will depend upon how much you trust the government to monitor the food and provide accurate information. Obviously many people do not trust the authorities at all. I do not pretend to know the whole story, but I also do not believe that radiation from Fukushima is affecting Tokyo to the point where I should escape. But please do not take my comments as encouragement for you to return. There are still many unknowns and, as Scarecrow’s post shows, the situation is still too far away from being resolved to feel completely safe.
The big concrete pump (62 meter reach)is now called the elephant and the smaller (58 meter reach) on called the giraffe. There is apparently another (52 meter reach) called the zebra. The two big ones are apparently there for use and zebra’s been retired.
Scarecrow, I have been searching for an answer to a question about radiation. How does something that is not radioactive, become radioactive? For example how does water become radioactive? Is it contaminated by radioactive particles or does the H20 atom become transformed into Heavy Water by ionization when placed in contact with a radiation source. I get particles, I don’t get becoming radioactive. Does steel become radioactive, concrete? I am wondering if as time passes the Fukishema site is just getting more and more dangerous and whether the danger zone grows as time passes and the “center” gets more radioactive? I am amazed that there is so little news about Fukishima while it seems like the problem is still very serious.
I think this is a good idea, mSv. The fuel assemblies should be put inside containment if possible. I am afraid that this would require a lot of people on the service floor + the repair of the crane (requiring more people on the service floor) so I don’t know how soon it can happen.