[Update Friday a.m., Japan: via NKH World, based on the essential facts below, TEPCO now describes the reactor core in Unit 1 as in "meltdown."
The utility company said on Thursday that most of the fuel rods are likely to have melted and fallen to the bottom of the reactor. Earlier in the day, it found that the coolant water in the reactor is at a level which would completely expose nuclear fuel rods if they were in their normal position.
The company believes the melted fuel has cooled down, judging from the reactor's surface temperature. ]
Ever since the Japan earthquake and tsunami disabled the cooling systems at Units 1-4 of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear plant, each of those units has been suffering significant leaks of radioactive water through various but mostly unconfirmed sources. Those leaks could be in the cooling system pipes, damaged valves and pumps, or even related condenser equipment in adjacent turbine buildings.
More ominous would be leaks from the containment structure or pressure suppression pool, and worst of all would be leaks directly from the reactor vessel that holds the damaged, partially melted fuel core.
News reports this morning are now confirming there is a major leak from a hole, likely “several centimeters” in diameter, in the reactor vessel at Unit 1. The utility, TEPCO, discovered the leak/hole in the reactor vessel after making repairs on a related gauge. From Reuters:
Workers at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant have been pumping water into four of the six reactors on the site to bring their nuclear fuel rods to a “cold shutdown” state by January.
But after repairing a gauge in the No. 1 reactor earlier this week, Tokyo Electric Power Co discovered that the water level in the pressure vessel that contains its uranium fuel rods had dropped about 5 meters (16 ft) below the targeted level to cover the fuel under normal operating conditions.
“There must be a large leak,” Junichi Matsumoto, a general manager at the utility also known as TEPCO, told a news conference.
The Reuters article is not clear about the location of this hole, and authorities may not know. We have reported previously that one theory about the continuing leaks from the Unit 1-3 reactors noted leaks could arise from damage to the seals for one or more of the water injection or steam withdrawal pipes connected directly to the reactor vessel. These occur at various levels on the vessel, relative to the height of the fuel rods. One set, for example, would be about half way down the level of fuel rods, and if a leak at that point were large, it would effectively preclude the operators from maintaining water above that level, leaving the fuel rods partially exposed. In theory, they might be able to inject water faster than it leaked out, but at the time, their makeshift pumping equipment did not have that capacity.
A worse scenario would be that the “hole” was created by melting fuel either damaging the vessel as it fell to the bottom, or worse, burning through the bottom of the pressure vessel. That could mean that both contaminated water and melted fuel could fall through onto the containment structure floor. What Reuters reports, in quoting local officials, doesn’t tell us the answer:
“The fuel pellets likely melted and fell, and in the process may have damaged … the pressure vessel itself and created a hole,” he added.
Since the surface temperature of the pressure vessel has been holding steady between 100 and 120 degrees Celsius, Matsumoto said the effort to cool the melted uranium fuel by pumping in water was working and would continue.
Based on the amount of water that is remaining around the partially melted and collapsed fuel, Matsumoto estimated that the pressure vessel had developed a hole of several centimeters in diameter.
However, this report from NHK World suggest the “hole” is below the bottom of the fuel rods, even though TEPCO doesn’t believe the fuel has melted through the reactor vessel:
The utility had suspected the gauge wasn’t working properly because the water level hasn’t been rising despite pumping in 150 tons of water daily to cool the reactor.
On Thursday morning, it was found that the water level was more than one meter below the bottom of the fuel rods, suggesting a large volume of water is leaking into the containment vessel.
The utility company also believes that the water is leaking from the containment vessel into the reactor building. This is because the estimated volume of water inside the containment vessel appears to be less than what leaked into it from the reactor.
And there’s this from Japan Times:
According to Tepco, the water-level indicators of the pressure vessel had indicated the water surface was about 1.65 meters below the top of the fuel rods. But as of Thursday morning the reading was more than 5 meters below the top. The fuel rods, if undamaged, are only 4.5 meters in height.
[Note: When Japan sources refer to the "contaiment vessel," they mean what I've been calling the "containment structure" that encloses the reactor vessel. See diagram above. They don't mean the reactor vessel that holds the core.]
Since no one can get inside the containment structure or close to the vessel to inspect it, they can only infer how large the hole is based on water injection and leakage rates and temperatures. At this point, it’s not clear whether they’ve just discovered a condition that has been there since the first days, when the core was uncovered and the melting occurred, or whether this is a later hole that is being steadily enlarged by the melted fuel. Either way, it means that keeping the remaining fuel covered is a serious challenge.
Update: the Wall Street Journal has more details confirming the basics of the story.
Other Sources:
NHK World
Kyodo News
Hi-res photos
IAEA Updates
Union of Concerned Scientists




47 Comments

Just the other day I checked “Radiation Nation,” to see if there was an update.
Thank you for this, Scarecrow, recommended.
Thanks Scarecrow. I’ve been waiting for an update as well.
This is certainly not good news. As indicated by the Japan Times report the fuel rods in unit 1 are completely exposed. Let’s hope they get some water over them in time to prevent further melt.
More ominous would be leaks from the containment structure or pressure suppression pool, and worst of all would be leaks directly from the reactor vessel that holds the damaged, partially melted fuel core.
News reports this morning are now confirming there is a major leak from a hole, likely “several centimeters” in diameter, in the reactor vessel at Unit 1.
Its sad when a situation is so bad that I’m not paranoid enough to foresee all the ways Things can Come Undone:(
5 meters below their target and they’ve been continually pumping for how long? That’s an enormous volume of contaminated water to be introducing into the environment.
This information from last week says that the groundwater contamination is the worst in nuclear history. It also says Greenpeace has been denied access to Japan’s 12-mile waters to test the ocean water, and it says we need to pressure our own EPA to continue testing contamination. The EPA is not monitoring the situation at this point. Also, radioactive sewage sludge has been found and has been used to manufacture cinder block that has been shipped out of the area and will now need to be tracked.
http://fairewinds.com/content/fukushima-groundwater-contamination-worst-nuclear-history
The utility had suspected the gauge wasn’t working properly because the water level hasn’t been rising despite pumping in 150 tons of water daily to cool the reactor.
WTF!!!! 150 tons of water a day leaking out for how many weeks, months of radioactive water at what level of radioactivity do we know? We need a map of the local water table and where that water flows too.
We need numbers of the size of the water table along with how radioactive the 150 tons of water a day is then we need to figure out how long estimating how much water seeps into the ground before the entire water table is to radioactive to drink.
Crap I forgot about the oceans getting radioactive as well China and North Korea are both likely to get angry if this continues. War at some point is possible Obama should remove our troops from Iraq and Afghanistan now and have 2 aircraft carriers near Japan. That and Pressure Japan to make a gesture about no more Nuke plants until the situation is fixed.
Japanese wind power stocks should already be flying on this news but if not well the big market players are invested in the Nuclear status quo they will likely lose their shirts.
GE goes under expect another bailout nuke plants are billion dollar deals a few cancelations could kill them.
So what is the plan to fix the leak if they can’t get in the area? Can robots do this job? If so when will it get fixed?
150 tonnes of water a day. Yikes. I wonder what the volume of the vessel is? If we had that info and the length of time they’ve been pumping at that rate we could know exactly how much water.
They’re going to stuff handkerchiefs in the hole and cross their fingers.
Hair and grease plugs my pipes quite well
Thanks Scarecrow.
Any word on how the Japanese are reacting to this news? At some point I expect riots to happen not protests but riots.
Good Lord.
Don’t forget zip ties and duct tape!
We don’t want anyone to from lack of air like that one guy did after the anthrax scare who sealed his whole house up Its sad, funny in a sick way but a danger the Japanese must now guard against.
You forget the proximity of the plant to the ocean. That’s where the bulk of the water probably went. And it would help to explain some of the more extreme and variable ocean readings.
As for the ground water… without a thorough and unbiased survey there’s simply no telling what the cooling water may or may not have contaminated on its way to the sea. I wouldn’t drink it.
Ironic. I took someone on an FDL thread somewhere to task for cherry picking words from a Fukushima report in order to present things in the worst possible light, and I was correct as far as that went in that what the report actually said was that temperature and pressure readings were dropping, and now it turns out that the probable reason for the drops was.. this.
As was expected from previous observations the reinforcement under the reactor vessel intended to catch and hold a reactor core in full meltdown didn’t do so well… there were supposed to be no holes in that event and yet the water is going somewhere.
… and of course the spent fuel pools wait in the wings…
Aren’t you assuming that they will be made aware of this news?
And then there’s Reactor 4.
Zero Hedge reports:
“Nuclear experts on Russia Today reported Tuesday that their is a real danger of a complete collapse of Fukushima nuclear
reactor 4.
Japan has announced that the building is leaning and that they are taking measures to reinforce the structure in order to prevent a collapse that would scatter nuclear rods from the spent fuel pool on the ground around the plant.
The flyover video analysis and images captured from the TBS live HD cam show little remains of the building except a burnt out skeleton.”
link
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fukushima-reactor-1-fuel-rods-fully-exposed-reactor-4-danger-collapsing
Geek note: Few robots have been built with the heavy shielding that would be required for that task. Radiation does things to electronics and of those with the shielding fewer still can do the work needed, like about… none.
Grim humor time: Actually, scattering the rods sufficiently would be the best option as there would be a smaller (but still disastrous) number of instances of criticality than if the water is lost with the rods still piled on top of each other…
… but why do I think that instead we’ll get the worst of both scenarios?
I’m not sure that would make things materially worse. I think there have been fuel rods scattered about since the first hydrogen explosions. And looking at the mess of reactor #3, I suspect his fuel rods are already in the basement.
Hmmm…with Yucca Mtn. closed, you don’t suppose we could work a deal to store our waste in the #3 basement as well?
Boxturtle (BAD BOXTURTLE!! Sick Sick sick!)
We’re probably better off that the core in #1 melted. At least the cooling can reach it. Anybody think, given that the core has beeen fully uncovered since the beginning, that #1 has NOT fully melted?
Do you suppose the water is actually making contact with the melt? If it is, I don’t even what to think about the dissolved solids in that water. Cesium easily forms hydroxides in water. All Uranium oxides are soluable in water.
Boxturtle (We’re gonna have to build a mountain of lead pellets the size of Mt. Fuji)
Rental beats ownership? :)
But I think that the rods at #3 are still being cooled. The heat, direct radiation spike and fallout from that amount of fuel in meltdown would be very hard to mistake for anything else…
… although I’m sure TEPCO would do their very best miss it.
After the news today the question is not if there was a full meltdown.., the question is the current location of the melt.
Many Chernobyl workers died to get that information.
Your direct contact scenario would match the observations: the water flows into the reactor vessel and out through the hole in the bottom to the containment floor before exiting stage… wherever…
… and somewhere in between there it contacts the the melt.
… did someone declare this an official worst case scenario day and not bother to tell me?
If they are being cooled, it’s because enough of the water has accumulated in the basement to cover the rods. And that’s a very reasonable assumption.
Japan is keeping Greenpeace outside their coastal waters so they can’t test. I think that the Japan government will dig a hole in the sand for the temco ostrich’s head if asked.
Msg to Japan Government: You ARE aware that even if you won’t let people test within your costal waters, they can still test just outside? And there are valid computer models already that measure dilution factors and compute source concentrations? You’re only buying time, and not much of that.
Boxturtle (But then the entire news release policy is best characterized as “Breaking it gently”)
Thanks for the update. It hope no more troubling news comes out of Fukushima. What loser technology.
The other day I heard that reactor building No. 4 was leaning and possibly in danger of falling over. I searched to find more stories about it, but there were none. Does anyone know anything about this, if it’s true or not?
Fortunately, the location of the melt will be determined more by the laws of gravity than the laws of quantum mechanics. Either it’s burned through the vessel or it hasn’t. If it hasn’t, it’s sitting in the bottom of the vessel being cooled by the water. But it’s in a VERY undesirable configuration, much too close to a sphere for my confort.
If it has melted through, it’s on the floor beneth the vessel hopefully spread out and the flatter the better.
I think it’s still in the reactor vessel. Remember, a few weeks ago the announcement about “Isolated, localized, recriticality”? That’s what I’d expect if it was in a bad configuration.
Boxturtle (I’d bet they’re carefully avoiding testing for neutron radiation around #1)
See clemenza’s link above. Gee, it would sure be nice to get posting numbers back. And get rid of this damn interweaving of comments.
Boxturtle (ashes, ashes, all fall down)
… myfdl commenters are second class citizens…
From The Daily Yomiuri:
Sobering news.
Early on, based on inaccurate NHK TV reporting and JAIF (Japan Atomic Industrial Forum) estimates drawn from Japanese news reports, I erroneously concluded, and commented here, that the concrete Primary Containment Vessels (PCVs) of Reactors 1 and 3 had been deliberately filled with water, in addition to the ongoing injection of water into the steel Reactor Pressure Vessels (RPVs or reactor cores) themselves. Clearly, that wasn’t in fact the case, because only in the last week or so has TEPCo started such an operation to slowly fill Reactor 1′s containment vessel with water. [With the goal, apparently, of filling the concrete containment vessel with enough water to allow it to 'leak' in to the steel RPV/core through whatever opening has been preventing the injected water in the RPV/core from rising above its then-assumed level half-way up the fuel rods.]
Now this disturbing news today indicates that the concrete containment vessel of Reactor 1 (in addition to Reactor 2′s PCV) has apparently had a leak or leaks for some time, and therefore the plan to finish filling the RPV/core with water by pumping water into its surrounding concrete containment vessel apparently won’t work (and will simply add more contaminated water to the outside environment). On the other hand, if these reports are accurate, there are no radioactive fuel rods to “cover” anymore higher up in the RPV/core of Reactor 1 – those rods having apparently melted and pooled at the bottom of the steel RPV – apparently some time ago, unbeknown to TEPCo and the world until this week due to faulty gauge readings…
Yes I certainly hope so otherwise if they find out they are being lied to well the government will be overthrown violently future cancer patients have nothing to lose.
IIRC, there is a current similar to our Gulf Stream that flows north along the coast where the Fukushima Daiichi reactors are located. The current bends northeast across the North Pacific and south of the Bering Straits toward Alaska. There it flows south along the Alaska and British Columbia coasts toward Washington, Oregon, and California.
This is scary, if unsurprising news. I believe it would be wise to monitor the current at regular intervals to measure the radioactivity in the water column between the sea bottom and the surface. Sea life also needs to be monitored long term to determine the effects of the radiation as there no longer is any doubt that a substantial amount of radioactive contamination has entered the ocean via the water that has leaked out of Reactor 1 and possibly others.
This is not a good time to engage in ostrich behavior. The people of the world have a right to know what’s going on and what, if anything they should be doing to protect themselves from exposure to radioactivity.
Seriously, it’s time to close the book on nuclear power and move on. We cannot afford not to, given the risks.
Actually, I read somewhere last week, probably here at the lake, that the US and Japan are planning on disposing all of their nuclear waste in Mongolia.
Lucky Mongolians. Hope the US and Japan tell them what they’re up to and ask for permission first. Unfortunately, that might be too much to expect.
The Wall Street Journal has a few more details, confirming the basics of the story above.
TEPCO acknowledges (not new) that there has been substantial melting of the fuel rods; that material is likely sitting at the bottom of the reactor vessel (aka pressure vessel), and contaminated water is leaking from the reactor vessel into the containment vessel or structure, from which it is also leaking into lower parts of the building. That means tons of radioactive water are sitting in the bottom of that building, if not leaking out from there. And as they continue to inject water into the reactor vessel to keep that mostly/partially melted core cool, it leaks out and down into the bottom of the building, or worse. Nasty.
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052748703730804576318470827245128-lMyQjAxMTAxMDEwMjExNDIyWj.html
Reactor 1 in meltdown.
“NHK reports that “Tokyo Electric Power Company says the No.1 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is believed to be in a state of “meltdown”. The utility company said on Thursday that most of the fuel rods are likely to have melted and fallen to the bottom of the reactor.”
Does this mean my Organic 1% Milk from the big box store ‘Cost Less’
isn’t really organic, and our government is lying to us? Wait till I
Email Mr. Ventura, there’s gonna be hell to pay for dry Cheerios.
Unit 3 now leaking Cesium 134, 620K over the limit
into the ocean.
http://www.japannewstoday.com/?tag=new-radioactive-water-leak-fukushima-daiichi
“that the EPA has suspended all but routine radiation monitoring, that American states aren’t really monitoring,
that Canada has drastically slashed the amount of
monitoring it is doing”
Corporate controlled governments protecting industry at any cost to human health. Obama wants to expand nuclear power.
He doesn’t want the hassle of defending his plan to
millions of pain-in-the ass, radiated, Americans.
Anyone who thinks Obama gives a rat’s ass about anyone but himself “needs to have their head examined.”
I have been doing a lot of reading on the Physics Forum lately. Although it is not a given that all of the fuel of #1 has melted, it seems highly unlikely that the rods would be able to maintain any structural integrity when they have been exposed for so long. So, assuming the fuel is no longer “fuel” and is now “corium”, the question is: where is the corium? Tepco says it is sitting at the bottom of the RPV. They also said the RPV has a hole in it of some centimeters diameter. It would seem to be a miracle if none of the corium escaped the RPV, but this is Tepco’s story. I do think we would be seeing thick black smoke bellowing from #1 if all of the corium had melted through the RPV and into the drywell (or through the drywell), so I suppose the lack of smoke is a positive sign. I do not know what thermodynamic effect the melted steel and melted concrete would have on the corium (I mean, does it lower the overall heat of the corium, and make it more prone to solidify and stop moving). It seems that at Chernobyl the corium didn’t melt all the way through the many layers of concrete down through the foundation (i.e. there was no “China Syndrome”). Whistling in the graveyard maybe…
The story of reactor building #4 leaning is a red herring. Much speculation on this from people who are peering at the building from the perspective of a camera that is 30kms away. Its gotten picked up and relayed around the conspiracy-theory blogs, but I think its a sideshow. (But Tepco did say several weeks ago that they wanted to reinforce the floor of the pool at #4).
http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=480200&page=437
At this point it’s not an if/or… there will be tons of radioactive water in the building and it has been leaking out from there. The unknown factors are how much for how long.
Supposition, but it seems likely to me: the water losses that were presumed to be from the core evaporating a certain amount of water were actually from the water being lost to the reactor vessel and then the containment.
That would be thousands of tons of water by now and it’s for damn sure that it isn’t just sitting in the basement…
The “drywell” is a reinforced containment structure and the floor of that is supposed to be able to catch and hold a full core meltdown… without holes.
As Boxturtle said it may be that the core is now a flattened mass on that floor.
In which case the real irony would be that all any additional water would be doing now is simply getting heavily contaminated before heading for the ocean.
There are a lot of things happening up in Fukushima that are “not going according to the manual”, so I’m just wondering out loud where the corium will end up. I think the blogosphere is exploding with China-syndrome speculation and speculation that radioactive lava is on its way to the sea. I’m trying to figure out the most plausible scenario. If the corium is in the drywell (or ends up in the drywell) and is in no danger of burning through the drywell, does it even need further cooling, or can they just somehow segregate it (contain the containment, so to speak) so that any radioactive decay products don’t escape to the atmosphere? If there is no danger of it burning through the drywell, then maybe the damage at #1 is already done? I think the speculation about the water table might be misplaced because of the situation of the plant (basically on the beach) and the fact that most of the area gets its drinking water from river-fed reservoirs (at least, that’s my understanding, and that is the situation for us here in Tokyo). Appreciate any comments…
It needs to be emphasized in all news stories and articles that this meltdown is not something that just occurred.
It can’t be fresh, or the reactor temp readings would still be going up from the heat pulse. Instead they’ve been going down.
We won’t get that unless one of the spent fuel pools loses its water and the rods happen to collapse together… much more total energy is in those pools than in a single reactor core.
So are we all… so are we all.
If the core is on the floor and they’ve been venting water to the sea all along then it’s time to bury that particular unit.
But first they must locate the actual melt and take meaningful temperature and radiation measurements… and TEPCO has been much more willing to quietly contaminate the environment than to directly kill the workers needed to do that.
They can pretend it didn’t happen if they wait long enough to sample. A lot of the nasty stuff will decay in a few days and it will look all better.
Boxturtle (And we can always blame the 12 armed octopus on government regulation)
I think it very likely that at least some of the corium is out of the RPV, but most of it is still there. And the corium has significantly cooled, whereever it is. If it’s still in the RPV, then it’s cooled enough not to melt steel and if it’s on the floor it’s cool enough not to decompose concrete.
But if we stop the water, it will heat up again right quick. Even without isolated recriticality, the decay heat alone is significant.
Without neutron radiation readings, it’s tough to tell how much recriticality is happening. But if it’s a lot, one could make the case that allowing it to escape the RPV and spread out on the floor might be the lesser of evils.
As for the ocean, well, I’m sure everything will be alright. Even Bikini island is still considered uninhabitable 50 years later.
Boxturtle (But then nobody is looking to make money off reactors on Bikini)
I think the corium will end up right where it currently is. Wherever that is. We seem to have reached a steady state with regards to #1 and as long as we’re willing to let the cooling water flush into the pacific we can hold it.
If it is going to melt the RPV, it’s already done so. If it is going to burn the concrete, it’s already done so.
I haven’t seen any recent groundwater tests, perhaps that would upset the ostrichs.
Boxturtle (There really doesn’t seem to be a lot of new contamination via air)