Climate expert Bill McKibben, activist and founder of the global climate campaign 350.org, recently wrote an op ed for the Washington Post gently pointing out the coincidence between climate change predictions and the growing number of deadly “natural” disasters that seem to be sweeping across the globe.
Deadly tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts in some regions and floods in others happen every year; it’s difficult to attribute every single weather episode directly to global climate change, even though the evidence suggests with more warming, we will see more, and more extreme, weather-related events.
But as we’ve seen 100-year events happen twice in a few years, or record temperatures several years out the last ten, extreme weather causing record or near record deaths time after time, you’d think even the most skeptical would at least begin to ask, what’s going on? And shouldn’t we start to worry about this?
Don’t expect the Tea-GOP leaders to get this logic. They’re led by Republican leader Eric Cantor, who not only hides in deep denial but complements that by telling the victims of the Joplin and other tornadoes that he’ll consider helping them rebuild only if Congress cuts something else, like funding for NOAA, climate studies or alternative energy budgets.
That’s not just stupid; it’s cruel. There’s no way to reach people like that. But what about others?
McKibben notes the many recent environmental retreats by the Administration and Congress and then frames the attitude of our ostrich-like government:
It is vitally important not to make connections. . . .
It is far better to think of these as isolated, unpredictable, discrete events. It is not advisable to try to connect them in your mind with, say, the fires burning across Texas — fires that have burned more of America at this point this year than any wildfires have in previous years. Texas, and adjoining parts of Oklahoma and New Mexico, are drier than they’ve ever been — the drought is worse than that of the Dust Bowl. But do not wonder if they’re somehow connected.
If you did wonder, you see, you would also have to wonder about whether this year’s record snowfalls and rainfalls across the Midwest — resulting in record flooding along the Mississippi — could somehow be related. And then you might find your thoughts wandering to, oh, global warming, and to the fact that climatologists have been predicting for years that as we flood the atmosphere with carbon we will also start both drying and flooding the planet, since warm air holds more water vapor than cold air.
It’s far smarter to repeat to yourself the comforting mantra that no single weather event can ever be directly tied to climate change. There have been tornadoes before, and floods — that’s the important thing. Just be careful to make sure you don’t let yourself wonder why all these record-breaking events are happening in such proximity — that is, why there have been unprecedented megafloods in Australia, New Zealand and Pakistan in the past year. Why it’s just now that the Arctic has melted for the first time in thousands of years. . . .
Every night, the evening news shows us the destruction and deaths wrought by another example of Mother Nature’s wrath, as though every one is an entirely unrelated event. And the next story moves, without connection, to the debates in Congress, in which the Administration and dodo Congressional leaders haggle over contrived non-problems and positions oblivious to what’s happening in the real world.
The common problem facing humanity across the planet is the disconnect between governments, whether elected or self-selected, authoritarian or democratic, and the people they presume to govern. Like leaders elsewhere, America’s leaders simply aren’t addressing the things that affect the lives of real people. And you have to wonder how long America’s two parties and the media that cover them can keep up this denial, this mind-numbing, stuck on stupid indifference to things that matter.
See the three little pigs cartoon from Toles, which captures it well.
More from Rep. Ed Markey, Time to take warming-driven extreme weather trends seriously



46 Comments

I think many if not most believe climate change is happening. But denial really exists here on the plain of actualization. Few Americans are willing to drop 80% of their energy use. And even if they did, the havoc would continue. The fatalism is contagious, too. Why bother if my neighbor/friend/colleague is doing nothing?
The denial will end, as Blumenauer quoting McKibben notes, when drought induced crop failures become normal…and then? Well, if you live on the coast, keep that guest room open for midwestern refugees.
As much as 4 inches of rain have fallen in the Detroit area today, and several more inches are expected during the next 24 hours. Well over a month’s average rainfall in two days. I can hardly wait for the Detroit News to tell us that this severe weather is a message…to buy a bigger truck with higher ground clearance.
Maybe if enough red states flood away, we can finally address this issue. But, no one has ever accused Conservatism of having the best interest of the citizenry in mind when it does … anything.
It almost makes me wish for a disaster in Cantor’s district, so other congresscritters can tell him that if they want disaster aid, they’ll have to give up something … like all the rest of their federally-funded stuff. (Or they can repent and force Cantor out of office.)
“Global Warming” (the original product marketing name before it was re-branded as “Climate Change”) is just the Left’s version of the Right’s “Global Terrorism” – the invisible, omnipresent threat that will kill us all unless we give up control of our lives.
It’s so sadly amusing that a group that can easily see the irrationality of the one point of view is so righteously paranoid about the other.
30 to 70 years from now when dikes need to be built all over the world to hold back the oceans, the jerks children and their supper rich friends will expect to receive the contracts to build them. They’re just thinking ahead.
“the invisible, omnipresent threat that will kill us all unless we give up control of our lives.” Except, unlike the right, the left wants us to take more power for generating electricity and being efficient and less power for big utilities. However if you think it is irrational, feel free to write a peer reviewed article in a science publication that climate change is not real. So far nobody has.
If the enormous influx of fresh water into the oceans change or break the convection cycle, these storms are going to be remembered as the good ole days.
Don’t forget the droughts in Europe
http://www.economic-undertow.com/2011/05/18/un-black-out-electrique/
(scroll past Miss. River discussion (which is also good) to Euro map and discussion of French nukes)
“We aren’t just talking “Un blackout électrique’ but ‘Une fusion de coeur’ … a meltdown. Unlike the reactors lining the mighty Mississippi, 44 of France’s 59 nukes are located alongside teensy- weensy creeks and rivulets. Even when shut down the nukes need cold-ish water to cool the cores! Right now the French are sweating bullets. Without some rain the mighty French reactor establishment will be in serious difficulties: (Google translation with some additions) ..”
Srsly, I give the human project 20 more years, 30 tops.
People don’t want to be bothered with this. They’re too busy watching tv or whatever. Some of the religious amongst us feel that it’s all in “God’s hands,” and so just pray, etc. Some are concerned but frankly don’t know what to do about it, other than whatever environmentally conscious things they’re doing – better than nothing but not really all that effective.
We’re all hoist on the petard of the overly wealthy, who are so insanely greedy that there’s never enough. Energy consumption and pollution is mainly out of control via the military these days – all the fossil fuels that are consumed in the name of killing people all over the place, plus dropping bombs, etc, along with the energy consumption involved in building killing machines of various types. And the energy consumption needed to transport everything around the globe in order to kill more people… and so on…
It would be useful and helpful for everyone possible to engage in “green energy” technologies, to reduce consumption, etc, but unless or until our death loving overlords can reduce their addiction to overarching power, domination, control, killing & making ridiculous amounts of money… well, I dunno.
Seems to me that we’re buggered. Whenever anyone mentions climate change, there’s sure to be some who point and laugh, arrogantly believing that their mockery makes them secure and safe.
Whatever… if ya can’t take a look outta ya window and actually take in the reality of what’s happening… well, there ya go…
Climate change is plainly real and ongoing, and anything we do to mitigate its acceleration would be helpful. But the glaciers won’t come back in our lifetimes, even if the whole world did the “right things” immediately, which will never happen. This thing has momenum and legs. For the rest of our lives, we won’t be able to depend on what we once considered normal. Agriculture will shift and change. You won’t want to be anywhere near a flood zone. Maybe a tornado shelter will be more important than you thought it was, or maybe you’ll just have to move. There’s going to be more and more disruption, no matter what anyone believes about global warming. It’s a done deal.
So we’ll have to innovate and adapt. The way we live now is unsustainable anyway, so this is probably a good thing. If the world is “saved” by any of us, it’ll be the ones who listen to Nature, look out for themselves and their friends, and find a way to live that gives back more than it takes out.
Fighting the ignorant doesn’t accomplish anything at this point. Just get out there and live your lives. Have an adventure. Follow your heart.
While I support McKibben’s work, he is too meek and as you stated, he wrote a gentle op-ed in the Washington Post. We don’t need meek and gentle.
I remember when McKibben and supporters went to the white house and asked to see obama. They wanted to propose to obama that he install the solar panels that had been on the white house during the carter administration. They never met with obama and were turned away. McKibben meekly left but didn’t criticize obama but made excuses for him.
We need fighters for this cause. Not gentle, not meek, but in-your-face fighters.
Since it’s often best to walk one’s talk, feel free to publish that particular assertion in a peer-reviewed journal.
p.s. Should we contact you for all future statements about what “the left” will do? Historically that’s been almost impossible to predict, so it’s impressive to meet the person in charge of saying! If it’s not too much to ask – I know you must be busy with so much responsibility – what exactly is your plan for guaranteeing your shiny hope turns into real actions that do anything of what you claim?
Perhaps you’ll be appointing someone from the Obama Administration? A Secretary of Climate Hope and Change?
…
For anyone else: caring about the security of the environment is just as admirable as caring about the health of the nation. The place it all goes off the rails is the connection between that desire and any provably causal behavior. (Much like Sidney Harris’ famous “I think you should be more explicit here in step two” cartoon.)
At the moment it’s sadly just Climate Change Rapture.
its all exponential, and the curve is on the move, but I’m sticking with my 39 and counting.
If its the same op-ed I remember reading the other day, figured it was dripping with sarcasm, else I agree.
Is there a government response to climate change that will make rich people richer? If not – forget about it.
The fundies I personally know, when I would mention global warming to them, universally say something like “I don’t care. God will ALWAYS take care of me and my family.” I guess you could label that the “rapture mentality” – they won’t mind being in heaven and looking down on all the unbelievers (i.e. anyone who is not a member of their PARTICULAR cult/sect) suffering below. The self-righteous are in charge of the Republican party now. Our country/world is screwed.
What is sadly amusing is a person who has to view other people as part of groups that they can then paint with a broad brush and hence feel an unwarranted sense of superiority – you ought get that looked at.
No one here is asking anyone to give up control of their lives to repair the world – quite the contrary, environmentalists want to empower people and help them wean themselves of their hydrocarbon dependency. What the politicians use AGW for is another matter entirely.
You seem to fail to make a distinction between what is true, and how the powerful use those truths to tell believable lies for their own twisted ends: terrorists organizations exist, and many of them plot our demise – that premise does not necessitate things like the Patriot Act. Anthropogenic Climate Change exists, and is destroying lives, property and prosperity – that premise does not necessitate things like Cap and Trade. There are other worlds than these.
Product Marketing. It must have made you feel good to use that cliche.
Noticeably, you didn’t reply to ed2291′s suggestion to trot out your own indictments of climate change irrationality in a scientific journal before a group of scientists who can review your evidence and credentials. Instead you tried to twist it into a bizarre Limbaugh-esque word game. You failed.
Or it could just be Mother Earths death rattle .
correct.
the once in a thousand year flood, is now the once every few years flood.
the heat wave in europe that killed thirty thousand
the forest fires in spain in the winter
the floods of australia, a month or so ago
the floods in columbia, unprecedented, right now;
the floods the displaced 14 million people in Pakistan less than a year ago
the epic fires in Russia, that destroyed large parts of their grain crop last year;
the wildfires in texas, right now
the flooding on the mississipi, now
the flood battling in the dakotas, going on two months now, and still no end to it.
etc etc etc
and, this is definitely the pre game warm up.
“and Well, if you live on the coast, keep that guest room open for midwestern refugees.”
you’re joking, but,
There won’t be anywhere to go, that is unaffected.
to the person above who thinks it’s not real, next time your up on the roof, try jumping off, since gravity is another one of those unproven scientific theories. you should be fine.
The problem is that you have mild mannered scientists, who are attempting to be honest and state the facts fairly, and who don’t really want to be on the front lines of this anyway, and who are attacked by no nothing, paid shills and liars, and people in government calling for their firing, criminal investigations against them, e-mails hacked, and lied about, a stupid and bought media, and in general the whole weight of the oligarchy being dumped on them, with no real counterweight, or support behind them,
facing,
a pack of paid, or deluded, liars, who will say anything, and deny anything, and in the most inflammatory way.
But for one who fights them on their on terms, you can’t do better than Joe Romm at http://climateprogress.org/
I think because it has happened in the past, that this number of deaths have occurred some folks don’t realize how extraordinary these numbers are, given the radar, the technical ability we have to warn of these storms today. If this level of storm would have occurred in the 1950s, the only saving grace would be less population, but it’s quite possible more people would have died because of the intensity of these storms. F5′s were a rare event. To have so many storms that rate F4 or F5 in one year is amazing. We may not have another year like this for 5 years…but that would be sooner, that the last time for us, which was the 1950′s. It’s hard for people to understand the invariability of this, with a consistent increase in intensity over time.
God’s after the gay bashers, obviously. He doesn’t like the way his children are being treated. Coincidence? I think not.
The problem is capitalism which locks us into the status quo. It’s not just the wealthy, though they are part of it, but oil workers even auto workers who build cars that run on gasoline. We are all, or almost all, part of the system and we feel a need to keep the system going. The fellow who predicts the end of the world and his followers illustrate the phenomenon. So far he’s zero for two and the day is now set for October. How many misses will it take for his followers to conclude they bark up the wrong tree? How hot does it have to get before deniers of global warming consider the possibility they may be mistaken?
By the same token, I have not made friends here because I insist the necessary change of minds starts with FDL. We need openness and community and individual responsibility for collective actions. That takes things too far for the powers that be who wish, in good capitalist tradition, to keep details of the operation private. A different FDL might attract more participants and make the place more valuable, but that is a guess just as member only forums as a means to social change is a guess. We certainly will see.
Wow. Just wow on climate change denialism.
The past couple years have really opened my eyes to how crazy both sides iin the “mainstream” political debate are. Case in point, people that can post on FDL and think they’re on the left but engage in CLIMATE CHANGE DENIALISM. This is just crazy, crazy, people identifying with the reality based community but still believeing insane things. Hell, FDL even has a bunch of people hanging around that are religious – talk about crazy and retro.
Maybe this is a good time for a list?
You’re probably not really on the left if:
You engage in climate change denialism
You say things like “some of my best friends are (insert non-white race here)”
You’re pro-Israel
You’re for nuclear power
Just what springs to mind immediately.
@tjbs
“Or it could just be Mother Earths death rattle .”
Boy, not a happy thought, but, it sure fits the circumstances.
And ekunin has it correct. Inasmuchas we are all part of the system, we are all responsible for making it sustainable. Failure to be inclusive will destroy us all.
I have noticed NPR going out of its way to state with authority that the extreme weather the world has been experiencing is “not the result of climate change”.
I’ll have to go back and reread Mr. McKibben’s op ed, Scarecrow, but my impression was that this was a new Bill McKibben, not a gentle one as you open your piece. I was encouraged that he had shed his polite mantle and was being very outspoken about the malfeasance of the powers that be in deflecting all attention away from climate problems which are going to change the lives of all of us. I was also heartened that this op ed appeared in the Washington Post, a sign perhaps that some are actually getting the message.
Gonna check it out – I think I am right on this.
Yes, I get a different tone completely on Mr. McKibben’s part – an important point to make, I think. I hope it is okay, since the piece has circulated widely, to post his final paragraph:
“It’s very important to stay calm. If you got upset about any of this, you might forget how important it is not to disrupt the record profits of our fossil fuel companies. If worst ever did come to worst, it’s reassuring to remember what the U.S. Chamber of Commerce told the Environmental Protection Agency in a recent filing: that there’s no need to worry because “populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of behavioral, physiological, and technological adaptations.” I’m pretty sure that’s what residents are telling themselves in Joplin today.”
You can read this as a message to ‘stay calm’ but that is entirely the wrong message. Mr. McKibben’s hair is on fire in this piece, and the sarcasm is evident from the heading – something like “Global Warming – Never!” For Mr. McKibben to be using this sort of sarcasm is like a butterfly donning a scorpion’s tail. ‘Bout time Bill, and way to go!
one,
I think everyone knows these aren’t lefties. They are just repunlican trolls looking to provoke a reaction. Anyone can sign up to post here. Ignore the idiots.
Just saw McKibben on Democracy Now this morning and he made some similar points to in his op-ed, although a bit less sarcastically. Great interview, check it out here: http://www.democracynow.org/2011/5/26/bill_mckibben_from_storms_to_droughts
This kind of thing sounds to me exactly like Pat Robertson’s views on AIDS as God’s wrath against homosexuals. It’s a strangely superstitious attitude for a movement that’s nominally opposed to fundamentalist religions.
Thanks so much for bringing this material to us.
Blessings
Please explain the following:
The four deadliest tornado outbreaks in the United States have been in 2011, 1974, 1936, and 1896.
While it cannot be said where 2011 will rank in terms of warmest/coolest, one can note that 1936 was in a warm cycle, 1974 was in a cool cycle, and 1896 was in a cold cycle. There does appear to be a 40-year periodicity; yet, how can one judge any trend from the most extreme tornado outbreaks in the historical record? Not to mention that the number of tornados in the past was likely dependent upon direct observation and reporting. Death toll figures are also a difficult comparison – even though contrcution techniques have improved, the number of person living in mobile homes has increased.
So tell me – scientifically – how can one make these broad statements with any degree of confidence?
PS – I believe that burning dead dinosaurs and designing our communities around little, moveable metal boxes is profoundly foolish – but I also like to see rigorous scientific standards.
Agreed – I think. The thing is, I’ll click through and check out their body of work, so to speak, before I toss the word troll around and lately I’ve been seeing people with a history of dozens of perfectly suitable commetns. But I see that after I see them spouting crazy talk.
A skilled investigator looks at all the data – tornadoes and other wind storms, the U.S. and other countries, and so on. But in your case (tornado deaths, U.S.), even then you left out the largest in history – Tri-State tornadoes killed 695 and injured 2027, in the year 1925 – not on your listed weather cycle. Hard to find meaningful patterns when you leave out data that doesn’t fit.
See Wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tornadoes_causing_100_or_more_deaths
I am not aware of any climate scientists saying that tornado activity, frequency, or intensity is linked to climate change.
They are saying that they do not know.
Dr. Jeff Masters:
“However, this year’s remarkable violent tornado activity—17 such tornadoes, with tornado season a little more than half over—brings our two-year total for the decade of 2010 – 2019 to 30. At this rate, we’ll have more than 150 violent tornadoes by decade’s end, beating the record of 108 set in the 1950s. In summary, this year’s incredibly violent tornado season is not part of a trend. It is either a fluke, the start of a new trend, or an early warning symptom that the climate is growing unstable and is transitioning to a new, higher energy state with the potential to create unprecedented weather and climate events. All are reasonable explanations, but we don’t have a long enough history of good tornado data to judge which is most likely to be correct.”
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/archive.html?year=2011&month=05
Try again.
In addition, measuring deaths and injuries for tornadoes (or hurricanes and cyclones) is not a meteorological measure of the number or energy of the wind storms. Your quote mentions the number of violent tornadoes – which we can now count even if they don’t hit a city or populated area. Most tornadoes kill or injure few people in the U.S., since they hit in the plains states. Most hurricanes spend much of their time over ocean and lightly populated islands. The measurements we can now do – satellite and radar – are much more accurate than anything before. Now we can start to see global trends in weather patterns.
Actually you are right, the “Tri-State Tornado” (singular) was in all likelihood a tornado outbreak. But at the time it was seen a a single event. Yes it was the deadliest “single” tornado. But it underscores the very issue I bring up – that it is nearly impossible to determine with any accuracy whether or not 2011 is a record year or not because or the difficulty of measuring past tornado events.
MODS: Please remove. This is a commercial site and is also infected with viruses and spyware.
I agree, entirely.
Yet how can we accurately measure the full level of tornado activity in years prior to doppler radar – late 1970s. And even through the 1980s its use was not uniform. Is a 20 to 20-year record sufficient?
Thank you for adding the statement by Dr. Masters -
“but we don’t have a long enough history of good tornado data to judge which is most likely to be correct.”
That’s retarded. Climate scientists have been saying, for fucking decades, that the models based on this thing we call “knowledge” predict more extreme weather events. Can we draw a direct line from CC to a specific event? Of course not. But that’s not the point.
Pointing out that scientifically predicted things appear to be happening has nothing to do with some redneck like Pat Robertson acting on blind faith to explain natural phenomenon (I use the term “faith” as derisively as possible).
Why don’t you just go ahead and join us in modernity. It’s nicer here.
“midwestern refugees” to the coast? Are these the coasts where rising sea levels are flooding more and more inland? Where on the west are earthquakes and first hit of Japan radiation and on the east are hurricaines and in the south toxic oil spill polution for generations to come? Also, where does the coast get it food from? Hmmm… I think we are all fucked, but I think the midwest with the farmland and that thing called a Great Lake and southwest with its low population density and stable land will weather it the best over the next few decades. Best being very relative, I understand.
“Mother Nature is trying to send us a message” isn’t the science I learned, nor is confusing correlation with causation. What’s more, strident loyalty to models that are constantly having to be retrofitted in order to track the actual data is closer to blind faith than to modernity.
Wait…wat? You seriously think that the diarist literally believes that mother nature, consciously, is “sending us a message”? That’s even more Texas redneck retarded than what you said before.
I’m also not about to talk science with someone that doesn’t know what they’re talking about. If I wanted to do that I’ve got plenty of stupid rednecks in my family I could to instead.