Catherine Rampell, the New York Times’ usually sensible economist, provides a good commentary on today’s depressing Commerce Department report on our stagnant economy. If you read the first two thirds of her article, you’d logically conclude that unless we can find a replacement for the rapidly fading federal stimulus, there isn’t anything on the horizon to raise GDP growth and boost employment. Logically she ends with this:
“There’s not going to be additional monetary stimulus, and it’s hard to imagine any fiscal stimulus given the current discussion in Washington,” Mr. Ryding said. “So what’s going to get us out of this? The inevitable conclusion is time, and that’s not very satisfactory.”
But somewhere in the middle, without warning or logic, Rampell gets captured by Pod People.
The Commerce Department report tells us the economic recession was much deeper than previously believed — we are still not back to the GDP levels of 2007. And the second dip this year, while not yet technically a “recession” because GDP growth hasn’t gone negative yet, was worse than originally reported.
As Dean Baker reminds us, demand was crushed, the 2009 stimulus helped reverse that, but the stimulus is quickly winding down and is now offset by severe reductions in state government spending.
The result is entirely predictable: Depressed demand from people losing $6 or $7 trillion in wealth, plus declining or negative stimulus, equals a declining economy, with little or no growth and worsening unemployment. You couldn’t ask for a clearer confirmation of Keynes and the need for immediate, substantial new stimulus.
So what happens when a sensible economist becomes a Pod Person? They say things like this:
Washington, therefore, has a delicate balancing act in its current debt ceiling debates. Given the unsustainable debt trajectory that the economy is on — primarily because of the country’s growing health care obligations — Congress needs to impose greater fiscal discipline. But imposing too much too soon, or being too focused on the wrong types of spending cuts, could be self-defeating by weakening growth so greatly that tax revenue falls and requires the country to borrow even more.
Given inflation concerns, it also seemed unlikely that the Federal Reserve will swoop in with another round of monetary easing to goose growth.
Shorter Rampell: The economy is gasping for air, so we need to cut off the oxygen supply more slowly. Since core inflation is very low, the Fed should worry about hyper inflation. And because our private health providers charge too much to provide less than universal coverage, we have a debt crisis and should cut Medicare.
You can’t argue with Pod People.
(For a human interpretation of today’s dismal economic report, see Dean Baker.



32 Comments

Nice job – thanks for sharing this.
At some point, we will have to conclude that O and his employers among the MOTU do not want a strong US economy. They can’t be unaware of the policies they would need to implement in order to enable a strong economy. They just don’t want to do it. The plan is to outsource consumption as will as production and to cripple and cow the American middle class.
If you’re not going to grow the deficit, there’s still one more thing you could do: shift the existing deficit spending for maximum stimulative effect. In other words, reduce the tax burden on people who will spded the extra monthly income while matching that with an increased tax burden on rich folks, who just bank the extra cash (and then the banks don’t do anything stimulative with that money here in the states). You also could shift money spent on advanced weaponry over to spending on conservation retrofitting of housing and urban mass transit. Again, those defense contracts are loaded with waste, which just goes to mostly wealthy investors and execs who bank the money. Shift to investing in stuff where workers and suppliers spend most of their extra cash.
Okay, ‘nuf dreaming.
The principle is interesting but it assumes fine tuning policy done by the most competent and best intentioned technicians, not exactly how I’d describe our currrent leadership.
But somewhere in the middle, without warning or logic, Rampell gets captured by Pod People.
Or by NYT editors trying to be fair and balanced just like Fox
Thank you for the reference to, “The Invasion Of The Body Snatchers.”
It has bee my only sane explanation of what is happening!
“been”
Dean Baker repeatedly makes the point that the US would have long run budget surpluses if our per person health care spending was similar to other advanced capitalist countries, e.g., Canada. This makes the President’s capitulationon the public option or Medicare for all the more craven. And it led directly to where we are right now: sacrificing the working class, poor and elderly at the alter of the TEA Bagger puppeteers.
Brians! Must eat brains!
The contraction of the economy is the real driver behind this deficit problem.
Unless we can kill the zombie we’re toast.
i don’t know all the facts and figures — who needs them– but the feeling ni get from, well, living, is that there was never really any stimulus. Miniscule at best. Maybe one of the Biden/Obama arguments really is true– it would have been worse. I remember admin. people meeting repub opposition by saying how such a large portion of their “stimulus” was tax cuts–i.e. no stimulus at all. i should have known then of Obama’s cave-ist tendencies
The MOTU have offshored.
Having given up on the US economy, they are just looting it for whatever they can get before the total collapse.
A classmate of mine once said that he wished he were around to see the fall of the Roman Empire. He’s about to get his wish.
one point i’m hearing alot on TV and read sometimes is that if you stimulate tne economy and create more demand it won’t lead tro creation of more jobs because “those jobs are gone”– i.e. the jobs making the stuff for which there would be demand.
comment??
I don’t think Obad caved, ever. He has done what he wanted to do. It is just that we’ve interpreted his moves in the ways we thought he would go. Progressives mistook Obad’s thinking from the beginning. There is no longer any place for rose-colored glasses–Obad has his own agenda, and progressive or even liberal thinking have no part in it. Someone said a while back that Obad was working for his legacy as a moderate debt-reversing deal maker; that I can believe.
my view is maybe that is right to some extent but no reason to eeject true stimulus, smart stimulus in its entirety. example.. we have an ENORMOUS need for fixing and builing infrastructure. we need gov’t money for it.
Yes, all that shovel-ready stuff; how yesterday….
i know. maybe ’cause i don’t own a pod.
Those jobs are gone because the U.S. aggressively de-industrialized its economy. By the 1980s, the financial sector accounted for a bigger share of American GDP than manufacturing.
I think we could create new jobs here with the proper national planning by national leaders thinking rationally and working to a unified national plan…like in — well, China. If we continue on our so-called free market course (which is really, “I’ve got mine, so the rest of you can take a hike.”), most stimulus ends up lining the pockets of bankers and boardroom members, all of whom use the money to eventually send jobs overseas. After all, that’s what free marketers do, and the more you give them, them more they do it.
Rampell on WJ this am. Vomit! She has not been alive long enough to have standing to speak. She lacks perspective, experience and understanding of history……….
I’ve got no hope whatever for medium-term prospects and things will be getting even worse over the next 18 months. One of the other gorillas in the closet is the underfunded pension funds for those who still have them. The actuarial calculations typically assume returns of 6 to 8 percet, five percent would be considered very pessimistic. But the odds are that the stock-market will be flat for years to come, as it was between 1930 and 1950, and of course, the low interest rates on bonds means that the stable part of a pension portfolio will not meet inflation. So a whole generation of baby boomers who actually saved, or who took jobs offering a pension, are about to be even further screwed.
Anyone in their 40s and in their right mind would be cutting back spending and looking for a place to salt away his or her savings. All this means even more shortfalls in aggregate demand, and worsening unemployment.
It is very hard to see how this is going to play out politically. The odds of an authoritarian take-over strike me as fairly high. We need a new vocabulary to describe it. It won’t be outright fascism, and it is unlikely to be a south American dictatorship, but it is certain to be authoritarian. And it is hard to predict how the American people will react to it, now that voting change is essentially off the table.
John Maynard Keynes anyone?
Jesus, I thought we had this figured out years ago.
You have to discipline employers here to actually hire Americans rather than green cards and H-1Bs. Employers have been steadily refusing to hire Americans over a long period of time while shifting to overseas operations and labor. In the late 1990s, I knew a manager inside BEA Systems (acquired by Oracle in 2008) who confessed to me that they had been handed such a directive. The manager could only work with contractors from India so since I am an American, I couldn’t get hired.
see bev above: “How yesterday”.
Yes, yes, hope not.
This is the kind of stupid statements you get when the very framing has been ceded to a bunch of pro wealthy extremists.
“Given the unsustainable debt trajectory that the economy is on — primarily because of the country’s growing health care obligations — Congress needs to impose greater fiscal discipline.”
I agree…let’s end nationalized Romneycare and instead do things like having a strong Public Option, not subsidizing over-priced insurance, Dorgan Amendment, drug price negotiation, etc – all things imposing greater fiscal discipline instead of corporate pork. Retirees shouldn’t be forced to collect aluminum cans just so that PhRMA execs can fly around in corporate jets.
PURE AND SIMPLE: the only hope now is Glass-Steagall (H.R. 1489). Congress positively must exert its Article I Section 8 power to establish “uniform Laws on the subject of Bankruptcies throughout the United States.”
We are drowning under the burden of a mountain of ILLEGITIMATE debt (if debt does not serve principles put forward in the Preamble, it is illegitimate). The banking system must be reorganized. The longer Congress delays, the further we excite conditions whose precedent is 1923 Weimar Germany. Congress, with its obeisance to “the market” is acting to hasten this end.
PURE AND SIMPLE.
I agree with you but when i go and read the referenced Rampell article you are supposedly paraphrasing i see you added remarks about medicare. NOT in the article! If you are paraphrasing an article pls be reliable and do not misrepresent (lie) and make stuff up which was not in the article. You added statements about medicare which i would agree with and which Rampell may have supported elsewhere, but APPEAR NOWHERE in the article you are claiming to have paraphrased. To me this makes you untrustworthy – you lied about what is in the Rampell article plain and simple. If you take yourself at all seriously, don’t pull this BS please. Details matter. Accuracy matters.
Shorter Rampell: The economy is gasping for air, so we need to cut off the oxygen supply more slowly. Since core inflation is very low, the Fed should worry about hyper inflation. And because our private health providers charge too much to provide less than universal coverage, we have a debt crisis and should cut Medicare.
– actually no reference at all to medicare or healthcare costs in the article. What you say is well deserved political outrage, but NOT IN THE ARTICLE you are “quoting” or paraphrasing (claiming to be “Shorter Rampell”).
Just to make myself absolutely clear in the unlikely event Scarecrow bothers to read these comments: I very passionately agree with you that the single most screwed up thing is that the worst problem the US has is medical care inflation. Fix it so we only pay as much as Germany, France, Japan etc and so out of control inflation on healthcare doesn’t kill our future, and there is zero deficit problem.
My purely editorial (but ultra basic editing) point above is, don’t confuse your own opinions with what is actually written in an article you are paraphrasing. when you paraphrase i should not have to follow the link just to see whether you were accurate in what you claim the analysed article said. This piece contains a MAJOR FAIL in that regard. you very clearly claim Rampart addressed medicare which she never did. You need to make it much more clear that is your opinion/fact and NOT stated in the article you gave the ‘shorter Rampell’ version of. Please!
“The Commerce Department report tells us the economic recession was much deeper than previously believed…”
—
It was only deeper than believed to the politicians tasked with addressing it.
Exactly tax the life out of companies who offshore. Watch us make shit again.