Living in Coastal So. Jersey is starting to become a bit of a marathon as the climate change picks up. In the last year we experienced a “new” weather phenomenon called a DERECHO ( an intense direct line heat driven wind storm) in late June that tore up the area like a huge tornado. Power in the county I’m in ( Atlantic) here in NJ was out for hundreds of thousands of people for days. Last summer (2011) we also had a direct hit by another land-falling Hurricane Arlen, but she spared our area, & instead dropped an enormous amount of rain on the northern part of the State and causing an intense flooding situation on the rivers and lakes.
This time around though it doesn’t look like we’re going to escape Hurricane Sandy’s wrath as she turns north and begins her trek along the east coast. Unfortunately, her arrival off So. Jersey is going to coincide with two astronomical high tides and a full moon. That would be bad enough by itself , but at the same moment it moves north a storm front out of Canada is also making it’s way into the east coast and a high pressure zone is sitting over Newfoundland blocking the Storm from going west out into the Atlantic. All of this will cause the storm to slow and turn toward us.
Where I live in the Atlantic City area the present models show a direct hit by this storm on Mon. morning. Tomorrow mid-day I’m evacuating from my home on Absecon Island to a family members home offshore in a surrounding community. A 4-8 ft. storm surge is predicted for Absecon Island and although my home is in the middle of the Island at 15 ft. above sea level my wife wants to bail, so bail we shall along with our son and our cat “Secret.” This would be the first time I have ever evacuated Absecon Island in a storm in my 60+ yrs. of living here.
Many are staying. Last time I stayed. This time the situation is far more serious, or at least it looks like it will be far more serious. Last time when we stayed it got ugly for a few hrs. This time the prediction is 24 to 36 hrs. of tropical storm force winds along the coast. Whatever isn’t sturdy real sturdy is going to be taken apart by such an event. Add to the wind for that many hrs. an 8 ft. storm surge on top of a full moon high tide and the picture gets even darker. The storm is over a thousand miles away right now and were already feeling it’s outer bands of wind. This isn’t going to get better till Thurs. you do the math.



69 Comments

Thank goodness this time you are taking shelter, last time we were awreck with worry
Last time I had friends living in Wilmington, NC and Arlen was already a dud as it approached, so I wasn’t that worried. This time it’s different. Also, Arlen wasn’t anywhere near the size of this monster.
Stay safe, seaglass; we’ll be sending good thought and prayers your way.
Thank you Wendy, your concern and prayers are greatly appreciated. Winds here are already picking up off the Atlantic and the storm is over 800 miles away!
Do whatever you need to keep you and your family safe.
Hi seaglass, I will be watching your liveblogging with interest. Keep dry, and have a crank flashlight with AM/FM radio and phone charger. We have had ours since before the Big Blackout of August 2003 and have cherished it ever since. Problem: my new phone takes a mini-USB connector, gotta get a cranky charger that does that.
gulp
Evacuation sounds like a judicious move, good luck sea glass, and everyone else in the area.
The current models are now tightly clustered around a landfall just south of NYC. With the tides and time of arrival this could be a worst case scenario for NYC with flooding of lower Manhattan, the subway system and underground power and utilities that could take months to repair and cost millions of dollars.
Sandy pic
Thanks! I have a crank radio and LED flashlights and lanterns with lots of bats.
I’m really worried about my daughter who lives in Queens and takes the subways into Manhattan daily to work. I might have to get her home till it’s all repaired. Not sure how that is going to work out, but I’m making plans to go up after the storm to help her out.
Ah geeze…Queens…hope she’s far inland. LI is expected to get 9-12 foot storm surge on the north side do to tides and wind field.
She lives right near the 278 hiway and not that far from the Triborough bridge. She’s moving over to a friends that is further inland till tues. I wish she was here with us for this.
Expected storm surge potential.
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8188/8129943028_03a143ca38_b.jpg
Another map.
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8324/8129928469_cb54c26866_b.jpg
This one say one 10% chance but one for 50% chance and 70% chance says 7-9 foot.
Glad to hear that. Can’t ever have too many bats.
My aunt lived in Beach Haven on Long Beach Island on the Jersey shore, the third house from the Atlantic. One day a big storm came by surprise, not a hurricane, a Nor’easter.
I guess it was out of season, and the two houses between her and the Ocean were unoccupied at the time. The storm washed those two houses away as my aunt watched from her house.
For years, in fact, for decades those two lots sat vacant with their mostly-flattened fences lying in the beach sand as a reminder to any prospective buyer that houses built here are destined to wash away.
Eventually, of course, greed got the better of some builder/speculator, who built and sold houses there to unsuspecting pigeons whose houses will wash away someday (probably much sooner than other houses).
Living near the Ocean anywhere has it’s risks and anyone who moves here must understand that or eventually suffer the consequences. Most people have Federal flood Ins. so even if the worst happens they just build an even bigger McMansion and then do it again if necessary. In recent times the Feds. also build the beach and dunes in front of these McMansions. All of this taxpayer funded and the majority of these beachfront homes are owned by multi-millionaires and are second or third vacation homes. So what’s to worry ? You have the Feds at your back, just one more example of how “trickle down Gov’t” takes care of the ( sic) “job creators.”
So true! I love the new LED flashlights as well. Were slowly converting to LED lighting as time goes on. I’d put solar panels on, but my house is 80 yrs. old and were going to sell it in a few more yrs. and move away. Then a developer will just rip it down and build a new house, so we don’t bother. Maybe one or two more generations will get to live down here and then sea rise by the 22nd century will end the 200 yr. American beach vacation as the coast retreats and sinks AC and all the S.Jersey barrier Islands and beaches.
Morning, glad to see you are up and about. Are you still in your house? IIRC Perris is on LI, haven’[t heard from him. Cynthia K as well, I think. Hope all is well, am going to see if I can find more info,and I want to check out the earthquake/tsunami on the west coast, too. CTuttle and family were evacuating last night, news on Suzaqnnes’s LLN.
the Long Island Express, 1938?
That’s the one. (You are sharp!)
Here’s a beachcam in Atlantic City
Here in beautiful Atlantic City bye the sea bye the sea by the not so beautiful sea today. I’ll try and upload some pics I took an hr. ago at low tide along the beach here. Winds in the 20-30 Kt. range rough ocean. The real concern here is going to be flooding along the back bays. The storm surge will likely get trapped in the bays and cause low lying areas to flood pretty badly. Although it’s kind of counter intuitive these barrier Islands are actually highest near the Ocean beaches and slope gradually into the bays behind them. This is why is these big storms most of the property damage in S. Jersey is along the back bays now. The Oceansides are as I mentioned above, have excellent bulkheads and many areas now also have Federally built dune systems as well. So the threat on the Oceanside from a Cat. 1 hurricane or a large Nor’easter which this is ( my wife is now saying Sandy is our 1st transgender coastal storm and is changing in front of eyes from Sandy into Andy, she calls this kind of storm a Himacane.;)
Have to ask, Seaglass – if the storm is going to hit your area tomorrow morning, why are you waiting until midday to get out? Is that safe to do?
We’ve decided to sit tight. The storm is looking to hit 50 miles north putting us in the southern portion of the wind field and surge. I live in the middle of Absecon Island in an old dune area with 10+ elevations in this street in front of my house and my house itself sits up off the street another 5 ft. So my front door is 15+ ft. above sea level with many blocks of houses between me and the beach and many between me and the bay over .5 miles away. It’s never flooded on my street and only washed over once in during high tide in infamous 1992 Xmas storm.
aren’t you under mandatory evacuation there?
i’m wondering if you have a boat, just in case.
No, it’s totally voluntary. Just drove around town to check on a few properties owned by family and friends and lots of “locals” have stayed put as well. Raining now lightly and windy. The ocean is pretty churned up at mid-tide. The worst of this will happen tomorrow morning at the lunar high tide at 8am locally.
Actually, I do have a boat close by. Doubt it would be of much use in this. You’d be in far more of a fix trying to get anywhere in a boat then if need be just moving to higher level in a multi-story building. This is a very built up area with large buildings and parking garages within a few miles if need be.
Seaglass, I’m about 40 miles north of you on the coast. Sounds like this will hit Toms River. Hard. I’m not close enough to the water to flood but part of my town is being evacuated.
I’ve been mugged at knifepoint. Twice.
Til today, I thought I knew what scared felt like.
Oh dear, Toms River. Isn’t that where all the rich people are? Or, given the forecast, were?
Toms River? Not quite…that’d be Mantoloking, north and probably east. It’s under mandatory evacuation. Toms River is real people.
Keep checking in so we know you’re OK
Heavy rain here now and winds are picking up. Hopefully our power will hold for the nite? I don’t have a generator, don’t like storing a lot of gas, plus they have to be kept outside because the Carbon Monoxide exhaust can kill you. I’ll lose some frozen food if the power goes out, oh well, I keep a pantry stocked for just these kind of emergency situations. Big coastal Nor’easter snow storms are even worse then this. I’ve been through big coastal snow storms where it snowed 25″ in 24 hrs. and nothing moved after that for days.
Seaglass, I’d rather have the snow!
The rain isn’t even heavy yet, but I’m not worried about flooding – as a cop said to me once about my street, it won’t flood unless someone has built an ark first – but the wind is scary already and it’s only 35-50 MPH gusts. I can’t imagine sustained winds of 50-80.
Really, really unhappy to know that by this time on Tuesday, I’ll know that, and a lot more.
Wow. I had wondered if the Weather Channel this morning was overdoing the alarm a little, but it sounds like they might be underdoing it!
I understand you are on high ground, seaglass (now I get your nom!), but how do you get from Absecon to the mainland? Is it a bridge or causeway? And won’t it perhaps be flooded or shaky by midday?
It just worries me a little that you’re worried enough to leave, but not to leave now….OTOH, of course, you’ve been through storms before, and can see what’s happening now, and the predicted storm path.
I am a Yankee living here in Texas, with most of my family and many friends in the mid-Atlantic states, Pennsylvania to Virginia, and more on up the Coast to Maine. I’m awfully worried, though kinda secretly (guiltily) glad I’m here, not there, after all.
Please take care of yourself.Worrying about all the firepups in the storms’s path.Glad you have batteries, etc.
We’ll see if I’m on high enough ground soon enough. Good nite all!
wunderground Storm tide (storm+tide) at Battery, NY is at 10.39 feet and rising. The record is 10.5 feet.
Extreme, rapid rise in surge level at Kings Point NY gauge on western end of LI Sound
wunderground Battery storm tide (surge+tide) now at 10.69 feet, breaking the old record of 10.5 feet. #Sandy
wunderground Kings Point storm surge at 12.3 feet.
thanks for live updates, cmaukonen– online tv, etc. poor reporting in comparison to your facts
This was Atlantic City
holy smokes! the storm isn’t fully underway yet?
i hope seaglass and his family are ok.
The Battery’s at 13.15 and King’s Point is at 12.50.
Here’s the live mapping at wunderground’s website.
i’m worried bout seaglassand family, too; the atlantic city photo isn’t very reassuring nor the storm surge numbers.
perhaps they’re all fine, just without power. maybe they had to go find a high rise for the duration.
BREAKING: MTA announces NYC subways will be closed for remainder of the week. All major lines are flooded.
RT @ClaraJeffery: Friend on phones says water inside Broad and Bever subways, smoke coming out of exits
I strongly suspect with the flooding and all that LI is without powere now.
Breaking: ABC7 reporting hudson is breaching and the west side highway is covered.
Wow! I hope everyone’s safe.
Sometime back in pre-history, there was a subway strike for that long, but it didn’t also come with rain and wind and flooding.
I worked at Chase Manhattan Bank in the Wall Street area in those days and lived across the Brooklyn Bridge in Brooklyn Heights and could have walked, but with all the months of 16 hour days, 7 days a week I’d been putting in, my boss called me and told me not to come in until the strike was over.
feel great concern for the folks on long island.
wall$treet, on the other hand …. ;o)
Floodwaters from Hurricane Sandy enter the Hugh L. Carey Tunnel (former Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel). #HurricaneSandy pic.twitter.com/4D309gdp
Water levels still rising:
13.46 at The Battery
13.11 at King’s Point
Saw somewhere that the Holland Tunnel is also flooding, that water’s pouring into it.
NYC in the dark.
Lights flickering here a bit.
where are you? is it western mass or am i way off?
yes, where are u? inquiring minds want to know; and are well-supplied?
Seawater flooding subway tunnels
Cleveland Ohio…well Garfield Heights, just south of the city.
http://i.imgur.com/dGRzt.jpg
ah, your reporting is so good, tho’t u were in the ny-nj area. so lights flickering?? course it could be that grid is all tied together and with major east coast problems …
“interesting times” indeed!
I monitor the weaterunderground blogs and the commenters there post like to news sources they come by.
thanks! signing off now. will be watching for your comments tomorrow.
Here in Garfield Heights. Wind: 24 mph NNW Wind Gust: 48.0 mph