As the Spanish and British can attest since the Madrid and London attacks of 2004 and 2005, homegrown terrorism is tougher to anticipate than plots from outside. Edward Luce – Financial Times

The word “homegrown” is not really applicable to Islamic terrorism. Islam even in its most benign manifestations is always “homegrown”: a simple, universally applicable, multinational, text-based, hierarchy-less, easy to understand, ideology that governs every aspect of life.

When, finally the worldwide Muslim community or Uma, using the essential, cheap and ubiquitous, communication tools of the Internet comes to a simple consensus as to who their enemies are, and there exist simple devices like pressure cookers filled with black powder for expressing their anger, no hierarchy in the shadows is needed. We can expect many individual actions similar to 19th century anarchism to follow.

What Americans need to pray for is that the millions of alienated, American born, young, black, men, who overflow their prison system, do not turn to Islam to express their anger and sense of oppression.

Cross posted from: http://seaton-newslinks.blogspot.com

Federal investigators are hurrying to review a visit that one of the suspected bombers made to Chechnya and Dagestan, predominantly Muslim republics in the north Caucasus region of Russia. Both have active militant separatist movements. Members of Congress expressed concern about the F.B.I.’s handling of a request from Russia before the trip to examine the man’s possible links to extremist groups in the region. New York Times

It looks like this bombing was organized from Chechnya.

Why in Boston?

Because of their previous successes, planting a bomb in Moscow is very hard for the Chechens to pull off anymore and even if they are successful, killing dozens of Russians, as they often have before: that doesn’t even rate more than a line or two in the world press.

But set off a homemade Chechen bomb in the USA, where nobody is expecting it, one that only kills three people… and suddenly it will dominate the world media for many days on end, with exhaustive coverage, something which, in effect, puts Chechnya and the Chechen cause right back on the map.

Probably…  but it also could have been just as easily organized by Russian intelligence, who, tired of being ignored, used agents provocateurs posing as Chechen extremists to recruit Tamarlan Tsarnaev, who in turn recruited his little brother.

Why would Russian intelligence do something like that?

Because Chechen nationalism is a very big problem for the Russians, but hardly on America’s radar. Now instead of just being another tool for the Americans to potentially weaken Putin with, it has suddenly become a common enemy demanding intense cooperation with Putin. The Tsarnaev brothers would have been the last ones to know.

We will probably never know the truth either.

Cross posted from: http://seaton-newslinks.blogspot.com

I live in Madrid, Spain, and at this moment we are enjoying a (momentary?) respite from nearly 40 years of constant terrorist attacks, mostly by Basque separatists, with the one monumental attack by Al Qaeda in March 2004 with nearly 200 dead.

I remember once, many, many years ago, being in an office meeting and hearing through the open window a very close by,  “ratatatatat” followed by a “boom“, followed by the most total of silences, followed minutes later by sirens, which was the machine gun burst and grenade chaser that killed a Spanish admiral, the direct descendent of  Christopher Columbus and his chauffeur, a poor recruit.

The daughter of a friend of ours lost an eye in an Eta bomb attack… she was just passing by.

The only consolation I can give the people of Boston is that if it goes on long enough, you finally get used to it… almost.

Cross posted from: http://seaton-newslinks.blogspot.com

The first round of voting in Egypt shows a strong showing for the Islamic parties, both the Muslim Brotherhood and the more extreme Salifist party Al-Nour. At this point the Islamists appear to have taken two thirds of the vote.

This first round took place in urban districts where more western oriented parties were expected to make a good showing. The next round of voting will take place in rural areas, which are more traditional and conservative, so the final result will probably have the Islamists with clear, governing majorities. In the west there is now much wailing and gnashing of teeth at this turn of events. In my opinion, whether this is bad news or good news for the west depends much more on us than on the Egyptians. Read the rest of this entry →

The lesson of the past few years: Watch out for things that can go massively wrong. What could go massively wrong in 2011? Let’s start next door, with Mexico.  Mexico drug war a nightmare scenario – CNN

I put the quote above, one that I have taken at random from CNN, to avoid being accused of setting up a straw man — the idea that no one in the USA is worried about the Mexican drug war. Plenty of people are very worried, and for all the right reasons. All I want to do here is add some more reasons of my own to be worried.

Many people fear, and they have good reason to do so, that Mexico may be in danger of becoming a “failed state”, or may already be one to some extent. I am not that optimistic, I think that the real danger may be that the United States of America is in danger of becoming a “failed state” or may already be one to some extent and that Mexico’s dilemma is in great part only a symptom of America’s own dilemma. Read the rest of this entry →