After Super Tuesday (February 5th) in 2008, there were three Presidential candidates who had a serious chance of winning: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John McCain. Who should progressives have supported? Clinton, the feminist and healthcare advocate? Obama, the community organizer and inspirational orator? Or even, thinking outside the Democratic box, the “maverick” Republican, McCain?
Which card should you pick in a game of three-card monte?
If you have to ask a question like that, you’ve already lost.
It is now painfully clear to many progressives that once the three front-runners had emerged, there were no good choices available in the 2008 Presidential race. Responses to that insight (other than sheer demoralization) have tended to focus on the stance progressives should take toward the Democratic Party. Some have favored efforts to reform it from within; others have advocated third-party challenges to replace it. My recent post “A prosthetic spine for the Democratic Party” proposes a novel way of combining these apparently incompatible options.
But the fundamental mistake in progressive politics, which allowed the corporate world to deal us a game of three-candidate monte, is only incidentally related to the Democratic Party. We are waiting until after campaigns have already achieved traction – and often, as in the case of the Obama campaign, until after we have already committed enormous financial and other resources – to do our homework on the character and likely behavior of the candidates.
Due diligence must come first. We must be proactive, not reactive, in candidate selection. Progressives have to find a way to drive the candidate-selection process from the very beginning, and take it out of the hands of the insiders, or there will not be any good choices available.
Spectacularly erratic behavior emerging after a winning progressive campaign is not limited to the Democratic Party, as anyone familiar with Green Party candidate Audie Bock can attest. Bock was elected to the California state assembly 16th district seat in 1999, defeating Democratic insider candidate Elihu Harris, who had been considered a likely contender for speaker of the assembly. As the highest Green elected official in the nation at the time, Bock promptly accepted tobacco and oil company PAC money, and left the Green Party to become an independent. During her single legislative term, her antics included appearing on the floor of the assembly wearing purple pajamas and Bugs Bunny slippers to protest delay in passing a state budget.
The Green Party seldom wins elections. This time it did. And, yes, I voted for Audie Bock.
Be careful what you wish for.
In “A prosthetic spine for the Democratic Party”, I proposed that the Green Party alter its strategy, so as to become more like a progressive counterpart to the Tea Party. But there are certain aspects of these parties’ track records that we most definitely do not want to emulate. We do not need another Audie Bock. Nor do we need progressive counterparts to Christine O’Donnell, Sharron Angle, and Carl Paladino. We must show more due diligence in candidate selection than the major parties have evinced – not less.
Parties make nominations, and broad popular movements sway voters, but individuals hold public offices. We have neglected the biographical aspect. We need to let the decision as to who we can trust drive the electoral process – not the other way around, which leads to Obama-style fiascoes.
For best results, we need to do intensive research on individual candidates before we invest in supporting them, and, if possible, before any candidate has achieved traction in the race under consideration. Such candidate research would resemble the “opposition research” that campaigns do in order to discredit opposing candidates, where they go over everything the candidate has ever said or done. But we would not be looking for negative (or positive) sound bites to sway public opinion; we would be trying to make a highly informed decision as to whether this is someone we can trust. A single flaw generally should not discredit a candidate; indeed, the superficial perfection of an Elena Kagan should itself be seen as suspicious. If possible, we should actually solicit the involvement of professional experts in the relevant aspects of human character – clinical psychologists, profilers, even biographers.
Such elaborate scrutiny might be thought impractical for one of two reasons. The sheer expenditure of resources might be thought disproportionate and extravagant. Or, more fundamentally, it might be thought to be pointless, because we could not hope to make a candidate electorally viable who had not already achieved traction; why evaluate in depth when we have no choice but to take what we are given?
These objections may explain why in-depth candidate research is not already standard. But after having drawn the Obama card in a game of three-candidate monte, we can no longer afford to see them as compelling. What could we conceivably save by skimping on candidate research, that would be worth the risk of another Obama? And if we are to have any realistic hope of influencing the electoral process at all, we must assume that an early progressive consensus can make a candidate viable. Some amount of prior name recognition is likely to be indispensable, but that requirement still allows much more latitude of choice than we will have if we wait until Super Tuesday.



16 Comments

It’s not due diligence which is the problem. It’s the lack of an adequate pipeline.
– There are few solid candidates who are both sane and want to subject themselves to the kind of abuse an effective campaign, the opposition and the public at large inflict on candidates; the public itself is a big party of this problem because it has permitted the denigration of public office and politics for more than 30 years;
– There’s an insufficiency of funding for new, untried candidates to help them overcome the hurdles they will face;
– While there’s plenty of training for progressives (a big change since 2000-2002), most focuses on activism and not enough on getting candidates through a candidacy; what training there is generally doesn’t include coaching/mentoring essential to keeping candidates going.
That’s for starters. Candidates today self-select based not only on passion, but on money and party support; this explains why we ended up with Obama/Clinton/McCain. They were their parties’ standard bearers because they overcame the money and support issues.
AMEN! Er, Ah-Men! I know one thing for sure, I will never again accept the establishment for what they say they are. Obama fooled me once, never again.
I do agree with the poster that WE MUST delve further into the candidate’s history, mind set, and who may be bank rolling them.
Great post for discussion! recommended
“After Super Tuesday (February 5th) in 2008, there were three Presidential candidates who had a serious chance of winning:”
IMO before due diligence, or the lack of candidates, THIS ATTITUDE is our biggest problem.
Not meaning to pick on you, but as a society if we keep insisting that statement above is true, then it will, indeed, be true.
IMO it’s not necessarily true at all. But it will remain true unless we, ALL of us, can purge that thought out of our minds.
Until we’ve found a way to change from our current system to something more like IRV, or until we’ve removed the corporate money from campaign finance, or until the American public spends as much time following presidential candidates as it does American Idol and Dancing with the Stars participants, Sebastos’ observation is accurate — and the truth is bloody painful.
I recommend you spend some time working inside a political campaign for a while. The truth would become very clear.
Let’s say for a moment you reject this and want to cling to the notion we as a nation only have to change the way we think. How do you propose doing that? I mean that in all seriousness.
Because if you could persuade everybody to change the way they think about elections, you’d have already helped a candidate win.
The reality is that it’s a bit more challenging than simply telling people to change the way they think.
It’s both. Your remarks have indeed led me to realize that – having been burned not only, like all of us, by Barack Obama, but also by Audie Bock – I wrote this post in a way that unduly accentuated the negative. But the negative aspect (vetting and candidate research) and the positive aspect (early support, especially funding, for a wide variety of new candidates) are really two sides of the same coin; they are synergistic. If we don’t invest resources in expanding the field early on, our candidate research may merely reveal (even long before Super Tuesday) that there are no good choices available. On the other hand, a favorable result from candidate research may point to someone in whom a large amount of money and volunteer effort can profitably be invested early.
Note the metaphor from the capitalist business world. We have to think as clearly and imaginatively as a corporate CEO trying to turn millions of dollars into billions. I’m sure our opposite numbers on the establishment Right do – they come from the corporate world themselves, after all. In “A prosthetic spine for the Democratic Party”, I proposed that (in certain ways) we emulate the Tea Party; but in other ways, we also need to emulate (and surpass!) the corporate arm of the Right, the PACs and the Chamber of Commerce. In reading Wendell Potter’s Deadly Spin, I’m struck by how organized and disciplined his PR efforts were, when he was working for the dark side. We need to be just as organized and disciplined.
For that matter, there are examples on the Left whose organization and discipline we could emulate as well, even if they are not altogether admirable in other respects. Think of Lenin planning the overthrow of the Tsar with a handful of followers. Or the Obama campaign itself – its triumph over the Clinton and McCain campaigns has been attributed largely to its superior organization and discipline.
This is a place where the money and power of the Left’s affluent backers – I’m thinking particularly of George Soros – could be helpful. Once a Left candidate has achieved traction, grassroots volunteer efforts and large numbers of small individual donations can go a long way. But Soros could do a great service in helping the Left to overcome the “insufficiency of funding for new, untried candidates” that you mention, and thus expanding the field early – as well as in picking up the tab for intensive due diligence on the expanded field. This doesn’t have to amount to covert astroturfing; everything can be done completely in the open. Unlike the Right, we have nothing to hide.
I also agree with you about the need for progressive training for candidates, and not just for activists. To sum up, I repeat a couple of sentences from my original post that include the positive as well as the negative aspect:
We must be proactive, not reactive, in candidate selection. Progressives have to find a way to drive the candidate-selection process from the very beginning, and take it out of the hands of the insiders, or there will not be any good choices available.
Thank you!
Exactly. I’m describing a certain unpleasant reality specifically in order to figure out a way to change it, and not at all because I think it is fixed or inevitable. The sword of truth must be grasped by the blade. I’m trying to figure out how to get people to change the way they think.
Also, I emphasized the date – Super Tuesday – for a reason. We need to get started now for the 2012 election cycle, although the way we start does not need to resemble a conventional political campaign. Instead, it should consist in field expansion, candidate training, due diligence, and so forth. The earlier we start with these activities, the more effective they will be at keeping us out of the game of three-candidate monte that the insiders are trying to route us into.
I definitely believe that we need to get the American public obsessed with “all politics, all the time”. It does need to become our American Idol or Dancing with the Stars. That’s the way we can achieve the massive turnout on which everything depends. But that’s another story!
Well, I’m not arguing that it’s the reality today. I agree it is. I was only arguing that IMO that’s the first thing we need to change because I think if we could change that it would make all the other necessary changes easier.
But no, I don’t know really how to change it, and really wasn’t meaning to criticize Sebastos or Rayne.
Sorry if my language was too unclear on that.
If we could change the attitude in everyone’s mind that only the two major party candidates have a realistic chance to win, wouldn’t that open up the possibilities of potentially tens of candidates with a shot each time, including true progressive one?
Ugh, so many typos and no edit function.
Preview is my friend…Preview is my friend….Preview is my friend… GOTTA get that through this thick skull.
I guess I should’ve said I agree that the reality is everyone believes that. And if everyone believes that, then it is in fact reality.
I guess I’m arguing if we could change that thought (but I confess I don’t know how) then it wouldn’t be a self-fulfulling prophecy.
I really don’t believe it has to be the reality because Ross Perot ran an awful campaign and 20% of the vote. Hell, he even pulled out of the race once!
Why is it if 20% is a reality in a poorly run campaign that someone else doing it better couldn’t get 50%?
I don’t think it is necessary to reject working a campaign, Rayne, in order to also believe that we as a nation must change how we think about elections. You and I have both worked enough local phone banks, done enough local activism, and worked enough locally to further national campaigns that we can see there is (or was) potential value in doing that.
But elections are not the only tool in the quest for true democracy. I think if we dismiss the need to change how people understand and participate in the process, or decide that such changes are too challenging to pursue, we do so at our peril.
I often struggle with whether, over the past two years, we have really witnessed an increase in how disgusted/distrustful people feel toward politicians/politics, or whether I am just more exposed to such people, and the percentage has in fact remained relatively flat.
In the end, though, it doesn’t matter.
What does is that people will never change their thinking without a consistent push to awaken them, and it must be more than just the failures of our leaders or our disappointment at the results of elections themselves which drive that push.
It’s been said that when the Buddha achieved enlightenment, it caused a domino effect that catalyzed profound change across all the continents. It manifested as a turning away from the ruling religious and feudal leaders, whose dominance was supported by dogma and violence, and recognition that problems have causes and the first step in solving them is identifying and correcting the causes. In short, it was the dawn of the scientific age, and it spread aruond the world even though people on other continents had no direct knowledge of the Buddha’s enlightenment.
The same can be said about the effects of waking people up one at a time in the modern day. As more and more discover the extent to which the system is gamed, they will react in ways that prompt the needed change. The more people participate in waking others up, the quicker that change will come.
Breaking up the two-party system might be helpful. But that, also, may require a complex, indirect approach that involves, at first, working at least partly within the Democratic party. That’s what my first post, “A prosthetic spine for the Democratic Party”, is about. I think right now comments may still be open on it (although I’m not sure; the author’s view may be different from that of other FDL users).
Also, if the breakup of the two-party system is to be permanent (rather than merely leading to a new two-party system dominated by different parties), then (as Rayne observes above) the voting system will need to be changed to something like instant-runoff voting (IRV) or proportional representation. That is, in my opinion, an advanced step in reforming American politics, which will require the prior success of many other reforms before it has a realistic chance of being adopted.
There is definitely a “domino” or “tipping point” effect; change that has seemed to be painfully slow can accelerate suddenly and dramatically. That is one reason why we must never give up hope. It is also true that elections are not the whole story.
For any desired change in society, it is important to ask ourselves where it fits into the partial ordering of changes by which ones are likely to aid in the success of others. The Left feels people’s pain, and tends in my opinion to focus excessively on concrete, end-result issues that address immediate, crying needs. At best, success on these issues gives people an immediate reward (and may motivate them to feel good about the Left), but does not otherwise address the ultimate causes, leading to a hydra-head effect (one solved problem is soon replaced by a dozen new, unsolved ones). At worst, success on certain end-result issues, especially those connected with identity politics, may amount to a Pyrrhic victory with a net negative effect, alienating those not connected with the group involved (as implied in your recent post “Challenge 2012: ending identity politics”).
There are a small subset of issues which, in my opinion, deserve far more attention than all the others, because they are the pressure points or Achilles heels at which the Right is vulnerable (or, in some cases, they are our Achilles heels, and must be defended energetically from the Right’s attacks). Some of these key issues are:
1. Wresting control of the electoral process away from corporate astroturfers and major-party insiders (the topic of these two first posts of mine on Firedoglake).
2. Increasing the general population’s overall level of interest in politics.
3. Defending freedom of expression (this includes net neutrality!).
4. Increasing transparency in business and government.
5. Maintaining the rule of law against corporate subversion of the courts and the regulatory agencies.
I may at some point write a post with a more comprehensive listing of key issues. Suggestions are welcomed and solicited!
Unfortunately, these key issues often have less appeal than others that deal with more immediate problems. I think the solution is to keep emphasizing the big picture, and get the public to realize that there is, in the last analysis, only one political issue: Who rules? Do we the people make our own decisions, or do we allow the Powers That Be to make them for us? We can learn something from the approach of the Old Left, and from our Libertarian opponents. When the general public starts to get excited about issues as abstract as “class struggle” or the “free market”, we will know we are getting somewhere. When we see large numbers of protest signs saying things like “Down with astroturfing!” or “End the two-party system!” or “Stop regulatory capture!”, we will be ahead of the game.
Again, it’s a matter of when and how. Super Tuesday in 1992 was March 10th; Perot made a high-profile announcement before that. Indeed, a victory for a third-party candidate – or for a Democratic candidate primarying Obama with dual third-party (such as Green) endorsement – is not at all impossible. But the chances are better the sooner we get started!
Another thought on the true significance of due diligence: perceptions affect reality. Whatever we may think the real problem is, many progressive voters are thoroughly demoralized by Obama’s betrayal. They will not again expend their time, effort, and money as they did in 2008, unless we give them some reason to believe that the outcome is likely to be more worthwhile. No amount of scrutiny can guarantee a candidate’s good faith, and I think the voters understand that; but without a serious effort at due diligence, voters will not only not trust our candidate, they will not trust us to be good stewards of their resources.
In fact, I now recall that my principal motivation for writing this post was the need to reassure the voters. Again and again on Firedoglake – even here! – I have seen comments expressing bitterness at having spent precious money and time in 2008 for nothing, or (in the opinion of some) worse than nothing. So the negative emphasis of this post has more justification than just my personal experience with voting for Audie Bock. However much we may need to emphasize the pipeline and adequate up-front funding when dealing with potential candidates, we need to emphasize due diligence when dealing with the voters. Regaining voter trust will be essential to attaining once more the kind of high voter turnout on which everything depends, and which achieved such dramatic results in 2008.