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It is inspiring to see the people of Tunisia and Egypt standing up for themselves. The bravery of people willing to go to the streets, even when the army will be deployed against them is stunning.
What causes an actual revolution instead of something like the so-called Republican Revolution in 1994 is pretty clear from recent events. Long term rule by the same person and political party, a large and growing group of people who are genuinely desperate in their straights, the feeling that something can change and the conviction that there is nothing left to lose.
These conditions all came together in two places in the Arab world over the last month, and are starting to coalesce in other places. The desire to have a better life is universal for all people. There is something in us humans that says things should be better.
Historically revolutions are a hit and miss proposition. There are about as many failed ones as there are successful ones. The ones that fail are often called uprisings, instead of revolutions, since by definition a revolution is successful, and an uprising is not.
In 1798, just after the Untied States had made its successful revolution against the British, the Irish tried the same. They were confident that they would succeed, they had the support of the French who promised them that if they fought for their freedom they would be supported with French troops, which they were a couple of times. However the British committed large numbers of troops and eventually retook the country. They also executed huge numbers of rebels and civilians alike. The following repression of the Irish lasted for more than a full generation.
Losing is not always the worst thing that can happen. It is nice to think that governance of a free people is something that can happen organically, but the reality is that revolution can lead to a reactionary new government and becomes a story of “meet the new boss, same as the old boss”. Slaves have risen before to go right back to slave holding just with a different oppressed class. Once revenge takes root there is often a cycle of tit-for-tat oppression.
Which is not to say that it has to be that way. South Africa, which still has many problems, was able to avoid this kind of action. What they had that is unapparent at this point in both Egypt and Tunisia is a set of leaders who had thought for a very long time about what they wanted for their nation.
It seems likely that if the Mubarak government falls that what replaces it will not be a U.S style liberal democracy. There is just no history there for people to envision what that would really look like. For more than a generation they have basically lived in a state of emergency which allowed Mubarak and his Party to have the form or democracy without the actual give and take of democratic process. It is hard to know if there are enough popular opposition leaders who really grasp or endorse the ideals that we think of as democracy in this nation as practical or desirable.
It is almost certain that a new government would be some form of Islamic Republican. Frankly I don’t have a problem with that, if it is what the people actually want. We in the West have our own opinion about the problems of mixing religion and government, but that does not mean we can impart those values on people who have lived a different reality for the last couple of hundred years.
In the end I am an optimist, I always figure things will be better even when I have doubts. So I am going to hold on to my hope that this will be a peaceful revolution in Egypt. That there will emerge leaders who understand that the best way for a people to be governance is by their consent with all the dissent and messiness that it entails.
We will see. Maybe the Army will not fire on the people. Maybe President Mubarak will see the writing on the wall and want his place in history to be softened by not bringing his country to a bloody repression and steps aside. I don’t know what will happen, but that is what I hope for tonight. That the courage of the people in the street is honored by the Army and or Government and change comes to Egypt.
What’s on your mind about Egypt tonight Firedogs? The floor is yours.
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The point is clear for revolutionaries in America and the world over…..
You must take to the streets. You must not gain a “parade” or “protest” permit. You must not be afraid to be beaten, arrested, or killed.
Though you may desire peace, and though you may be peaceful in intent, ~~~EDITED IN MODERATION~~~
You must be willing to stake your life and your freedom on a better life for countless others and for your children…
The revolutionaries in Egypt are doing all of this…
Why can’t we?
~~~ModNote: To be crystal clear – FireDogLake does not countenance the advocacy of violence as a solution to current political problems. Ever.~~~
I disagree about the semantics. The difference between a revolution and a mere uprising is not success alone – it’s whether the rest of the world takes notice. Most (all?) of the revolutions of 1848 were unsuccessful, but they are called revolutions nonetheless – not just uprisings. Eric Hobsbawm’s classic book on this topic is called The Age of Revolution, 1789–1848 – not “The Age of Uprising”.
We have already seen enough to know that these 2011 revolutions will go down in history as revolutions, not as mere uprisings – regardless of the ultimate outcome.
“It seems likely that if the Mubarak government falls that what replaces it will not be a U.S style liberal democracy.”
I would say, and likely will in a diary, that it is the US style of democracy which is to no small degree, the reason why The Jasmin Revolutions are taking place. It’s fail/fail, imo.
Sadly, the uprising means that my scheduled visit to Egypt will not be happening. Instead, we are landing today in Istanbul. Everywhere through the region, though, I’m finding a lot of support for the people in the streets. It’s hard not to realize, though, that the worldwide economic crisis is a great deal of the impetus behind the uprising, and that desperation has made this event so necessary.
Oppression and impoverishment go hand in hand. These Jasmine Revolutions aren’t going to stop with Egypt, any more than with Tunisia. This is not a good year to be a dictator!
I’ll be looking forward to reading that diary. My own feeling is that capitalism is the real problem, and that James Madison, were he alive today, would readily admit it and become a socialist. The marvelous machine he designed for us was never intended to function in a world with global mega-corporations. I think the American democratic republic would quite likely work as intended, with relatively few other changes, if we abolished private ownership of capital.
As a nation, we’ve become like Gollum, fondling our “precious” capital even though it is draining us of everything worthwhile. We need to throw our gold into the fire of destruction.
A week ago, people were saying that Egyptians didn’t have it in them to make a revolution. They were too well trained in docility; they had no tradition of defying authority.
Look how well that prediction worked out.
Maybe, but don’t bet against the Egyptian people. If I had to bet on this one, I’d say they’ll pull off secular democratic socialism without a hitch – no prior experience needed. There are no guarantees, but a lot can go on in the human mind – even in a dictatorship. Don’t underestimate Egypt.
1848? Glad you mentioned that. The traditional definition of revolution involved a change in the social order. In other words, mere regime change brought about by action in the streets does not constitute revolution, even if successful. The revolutions of 1848 did entail social transformation.
They are amazingly pertinent here. In 1848, the feudal order ruled. An alliance of nascent bourgeoisie and the peasants and workers rose up violently against that order. To generalize broadly, when the feudal order fled, the now ruling bourgeoisie then enlisted elements of that feudal order to crush the more radical demands of the workers and peasants.
In Egypt, for instance, we could face a situation where Mubarak is deposed, with the army turning against him, turmoil continuing as the masses demanded measures to alleviate their crushing poverty, and the army then turning against them to restore order.
The question then becomes one of reform or revolution.
We’ll see how that plays out.
Well, its not Egypt qua Egypt that is the issue. It is that historically there is as much chance of a bad outcome as a good one. I hope for a good one, whatever that is, but I know that there is a good chance that it won’t happen.
Part of the issue is having an idea of what they want. Other than Mubarak gone I am not hearing that. It is that lack of a clear goal that concerns me. Frankly I hope you’re right and I’m wrong on this one.
What we are seeing in Egypt is a classic, spontaneous, chaotic, popular revolution. Grievances simmering for decades suddenly burst into the open when the right spark hit the right fuse.
The very fact that the Egyptian Revolution IS spontaneous, chaotic, and popular is what makes it so difficult for the government to survive. They obviously didn’t predict this, otherwise they would have nipped it in the bud.
I’ll make just two points here. 1) No matter how many police and intelligence operatives a government has, if the people want it gone, it’s GONE. 2) In successful popular revolutions, the military at least refuses to slaughter its own people. The pictures of Egyptian civilians giving soldiers on tanks food and drink, and of the same people sitting around the tanks with smiles all round, seem to indicate that the Egyptian Army is not about to massacre its own people, and the people know it.
Therefore Mubarak is doomed. What happens next is the perennial problem of true popular revolutions. What will the new government eventually look like? I don’t know. But the absence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the protests, according to reports from the ground, is I think a good thing.
“No people ever gets a government it doesn’t deserve.”
–Voltaire
I suppose you were going to play tourist. Nothing wrong with that, it’s one of my favorite things. It should comfort you to know that the first things the Egyptian Army surrounded were the Great Pyramids and the Egyptian Museum. At least they are protecting the heritage of one of the planet’s oldest and greatest civilizations.
Revolution, Revolt or rebellion? We’ll see. Truth is we really have no idea what’s been brewing deep within these societies.
Someone – I think it was either H. L. Mencken or Ambrose Bierce – once said:
Americans have a penchant for biting the hands that feed them, and feeding the mouths that bite them. Such as the banksters.
For an encouraging look at what their actual priorities are, check this out:
This article will be in the next version of my annotated bibliography. El-Hamalawy says that a lot of young Egyptians have left the Muslim Brotherhood because its high-level leadership has made compromises with the Mubarak regime. He also makes it clear how much labor activism there has been, even under the repressive conditions imposed by Mubarak.
Cool, and thanks!
From the ICRC website this morning:
“The ICRC calls upon the authorities, demonstrators and all others involved to respect human life and dignity at all times,” said Beatrice Megevand-Roggo, the ICRC’s head of operations for the Middle East. “People who have been wounded and health-care personnel, vehicles and facilities must be respected by all. Security forces must apply international standards governing the use of force in their efforts to restore law and order. Those arrested and detained must be treated in conformity with the law.”
http://www.icrc.org/eng/resources/documents/news-release/2011/egypt-news-2011-01-29.htm
Be extremely careful what you wish for, and remember Crane Brinton’s Anatomy of a Revolution. The government should step down yesterday, the security forces should put down their weapons, and those who take the government’s place should make all due haste to implement the will and consent of the people. The above warning is about observing the tenets of the laws of war, because the ICRC is starting early to move if necessary to protect the lives and dignity of the vulnerable. Because of what war does to the vulnerable, no matter how noble the cause.
The sooner the government steps down, the better, and possibly the greater the extent of the revolution.
It seems to me that Egypt was sliding toward Hereditary Democracy. Mubarak hasn’t been a particularly bad leader but some form of change is needed to prevent his son from inheriting that leadership position.
Hopefully it will be a better change than the decade of bloody reactionary mayhem that Iran received after 1979.
If the Egyptian military involves itself with Mubarak’s replacement, things might go alright.
The military has always been the power in Egypt and that goes back 10K yrs. The military will decide the ultimate outcome of this revolt.
The military will decide the winner and the people are well aware of it. In China when they did the Tienanmen sq. 1989 thing the organizers didn’t take into account the army and that was a fatal mistake. In Moscow Yeltsin on the other hand did in 1991 and was able to win over enough of the Soviet military to topple the regime. If it happened here you can almost count of the military to kill as many of us as necessary to please they’re Christotalib leaders in the Pentagon.
TBH, I hope they do. If the military asserts itself with another Nasser or Sadat… things might take a turn for the better.
But the US and Israel don’t want a nationalist running Egypt. So any move in that direction would probably be short lived.