H/T Masoinblue for his writing on this topic. I do not mean to hijack his good work.
A Theory, based on the facts read. I don’t guarantee that any part of it is 100% correct, I merely assert that this explanation fits the reported facts so far.
- Among the passengers on the plan was a secret person or person, P, of high value to state A, and known by state B. Inspection of the passenger list would probably not reveal the existence of P.
- State B establishes an operation to rid themselves of P.
- The method chosen was clear and public to send a message to state A from state B. Because this was considered a war action, innocent civilian deaths were ignored, or discounted.
- There were at least two operatives on the plane, most probably in first class to be close the cockpit and who board with a relatively bulky set of hand baggage (parachute and high altitude jump clothing); operational prudence would not have allowed State B to limit itself to a single person. The operatives may have included at least one pilot. This pilot does not have to have been one of the assigned pilots who took off from Kuala Lampur.
- The route of the plane was re-programmed in the autopilot, and the plane’s beacons were turned off. This requires intimate knowledge of the plane’s systems – knowledge which generally would require a pilot or well-trained (expensively trained) state operative. Having a flight simulator, so that State B’s agent could practice all the necessary steps would be invaluable to the success of his mission.
- The rise in altitude to 45,000 ft was intended to kill all on board, in a very cold de-pressurized aircraft. The operatives breathed oxygen, and had to wear some form of cold weather clothing. It’s well below zero degrees Fahrenheit at 45,000 feet.
- The drop to 23,000 ft (or so) was intended to prove a planned escape for the operatives at a specific location by parachutes carried on as hand luggage. In an unpressurized plane it is possible to open an exterior door, and striking the tail is unlikely, as long as the plane is flying horizontally, because the tail is much higher than the rear doors.
- Parachute jumps at night, from 23,000 feet are for the very well-equipped and experienced jumpers. Special equipment and probably military training would be essential to survival.
- The parachute drop could have been over land or sea. At sea there would have to be a specific drop location and a vessel waiting to pick up the operatives; on land the escape at night bears landing risk (trees).
- A sea-based escape would require the most equipment, yet be hardest for an uniformed observer to track. With a defined latitude and longitude, lights on the vessel and experienced skydivers the pick-up would be possible, and best if the vessel was helicopter equipped.
- A land based rescue would be simple, but might reveal the operatives to curious locals. This might be why the plane turned west back over land.
- The plane flew on with its dead, until fuel was exhausted and crashed into the sea.
Candidates for State A: I believe this list to be short. No more than two or three candidates.
Candidates for State B: See above.
Identity or Identities of P: Secret, and not relevant. Traveling identity was probably fake and would not reveal much. P clearly felt safe traveling on a commercial flight, but would not have traveled using his/her own name.
Possible contributions to proof (all):
- Parachutes as hand luggage.
- Set of Bulky clothes (high altitude) as hand baggage and possible high altitude motorcycle helmet like equipment.
- Oxygen tanks and helmets present in carry-on luggage – check luggage scanning tapes at KL airport or ground staff loaded the equipment is a specified overhead locker before the flight boarded.
- If one or both pilots were an experienced parachutist, their pictures should be posted worldwide as persons with whom KL would like to have a chat.
- The flight path of the lowest portion of the plane’s flight would reveal the possible drop area. As I recall, the plane dove to 23,000 feet and then climbed back to 35,000 feet. The latitude and longitude of that drop is probably the drop point, or close to it. Plummeting to earth at night from 23,000 feet could be done successfully, with the right equipment. Jumping out at 35,000 feet is significantly riskier, and doesn’t make sense if you can do it 2-¼ miles closer to earth.
Method to search for evidence supporting this theory:
- Inspection of boarding video (If there is one). Look for bulky carry-on luggage (Clothing and Parachutes).
- Identification and Close questioning of ground staff servicing the inside of the airplane, and search for any missing persons.
- Check the luggage-scanning video records. Oxygen equipment, high-altitude headgear, etc. should be easy to spot.
- Passengers with onward destinations to, or earlier arrivals (not transit passengers, that would be too obvious) from very cold locations, to explain the cold weather clothes to inspectors.
But wait, you say! This resembles a conspiracy theory. Aren’t conspiracy theories always wrong? We would like to agree with you; unfortunately, news reports over the last two or three years have shown that sometimes, there really is a conspiracy. We wish that we could exclude that possibility, but governments have repeatedly shown that they are willing to behave badly, as long as they think they won’t have to tell their countrymen or the world about what they’ve done. You’ll be pleased to know that there’s a solution — It’s called sunlight. If governments became more transparent, there would be fewer opportunities for them to behave badly, and consequently, theories of this sort could be excluded from the set of possible explanations.
As the situation stands, there is so much that is not merely unexplained, but also singular about MH370. Why reprogram the automatic pilot? That proves that SOMEONE took actions on that plane that were not part of the standard activities of the airline pilots. Why spike up to 45,000 feet, then after a little while dive back down to 23,000 feet, then rise to 35,000 feet? Clearly, that experience has probably never happened to you, or to anyone that you know. (Not to me and I have over 2 million miles on planes, including two emergency back-to-the-airport now incidents) These events are unique in commercial aviation history. (And to me, I have over 2 million miles of flying, two emergency landings due to equipment failure, one of which I detected and alerted the crew) Somebody did something.
The only question is “WHY?” We think the most likely reason is clandestine state activity against another state. It can’t be terrorism, because they always advertise what they’ve done, to instill fear into the local population. That didn’t happen in this case.
Whoever did this deed committed mass murder, and was probably part of a conspiracy to murder. Whichever state managed P needs to disclose that their operative is missing, presumed killed and thus eliminate at least one state from the suspect list above. That probably won’t happen, though.