This puts the lie to Obama‘s promise that, under his plan cooked up with Mitch McConnell “no American family’s taxes will go up on January first:”

The Making Work Pay credit gives workers up to $400, paid out at 8 percent of income, meaning that anybody making at least $5,000 gets the full amount — and gets as much as anybody else. Its replacement knocks two percentage points off the payroll tax cut, meaning a worker would need to make $20,000 to get a $400 break. Of the nation’s roughly 150 million workers, around 50 million make less than $20,000 and will see at least some increase as a result.

Additionally, roughly a quarter of 20 million state and local workers pay no payroll tax, because they have a separate pension system. Some of those workers with children will benefit from the extension of other tax credits, but overall will have less money in their pocket.

If one of every three taxpayers is going to see a smaller paycheck because of this deal, then I think the deal is dead. Democrats can’t possibly support raising taxes on the lowest-paid taxpayers and public servants.

Can they?