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NASA & NOAA: 2012 Was In Top-10 Warmest Years For Globe On Record

10:12 am in Uncategorized by WeatherDem

According to data released by NASA and NOAA this week, 2012 was the 9th or 10th warmest year (respectively) globally on record.  NASA’s analysis produced the 9th warmest year in its dataset; NOAA recorded the 10th warmest year in its dataset.  The two agencies have slightly different analysis techniques, which in this case resulted in not only different temperature anomaly values but somewhat different rankings as well.

The details:

2012’s global average temperature was +0.56°C (1°F) warmer than the 1951-1980 base period average (1951-1980), according to NASA, as the following graphic shows.  The warmest regions on Earth (by anomaly) were the Arctic and central North America.  The fall months have a +0.68°C temperature anomaly, which was the highest three-month anomaly in 2012 due to the absence of La Niña.  In contrast, Dec-Jan-Feb produced the lowest temperature anomaly of the year because of the preceding La Niña, which was moderate in strength.  And the latest 12-month period (Nov 2011 – Oct 2012) had a +0.53°C temperature anomaly.  This anomaly is likely to grow larger in the first part of 2013 as the early months of 2012 (influenced by La Niña) slide off.  The time series graph in the lower-right quadrant shows NASA’s 12-month running mean temperature index.  The recent downturn (2010 to 2012) shows the effect of the latest La Niña event (see below for more) that ended in early 2012.  During the summer of 2012, ENSO conditions returned to a neutral state.  Therefore, the temperature trace (12-mo running mean) should track upward again as we proceed through 2013.

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Figure 1. Global mean surface temperature anomaly maps and 12-month running mean time series through December 2012 from NASA.

According to NOAA, 2012’s global average temperatures were 0.57°C (1.03°F) above the 20th century mean of 13.9°C (57.0°F).  NOAA’s global temperature anomaly map for 2012 (duplicated below) reinforces the message: high latitudes continue to warm at a faster rate than the mid- or low-latitudes.

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Figure 2. Global temperature anomaly map for 2012 from NOAA.

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NASA & NOAA: July 2012 Was 12th, 4th Warmest On Record

9:49 am in Uncategorized by WeatherDem

According to data released by NASA and NOAA this week, July 2012 was the 12th and 4th warmest July (respectively) globally on record.  NASA’s analysis produced the 12th warmest July in its dataset; NOAA recorded the 4th warmest July in its dataset.  The two agencies have slightly different analysis techniques, which in this case resulted in not only different temperature anomaly values but rather different rankings as well.

The details:

July’s global average temperatures were 0.47°C (0.85°F) above normal (1951-1980), according to NASA, as the following graphic shows.  The warmest regions on Earth coincide with the locations where climate models have been projecting the most warmth to occur for years: high latitudes (especially within the Arctic Circle in July 2012).  The past three months have a +0.56°C temperature anomaly.  And the latest 12-month period (Aug 2011 – Jul 2012) had a +0.50°C temperature anomaly.  The time series graph in the lower-right quadrant shows NASA’s 12-month running mean temperature index.  The recent downturn (post-2010) is largely due to the latest La Niña event (see below for more) that recently ended.  As ENSO conditions return to neutral or even El Niño-like, the temperature trace should track upward again.

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Figure 1. Global mean surface temperature anomaly maps and 12-month running mean time series through July 2012 from NASA.

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NASA & NOAA: June 2012 Was 4th Warmest On Record

7:38 am in Uncategorized by WeatherDem

According to data released by NASA and NOAA this week, June 2012 was the 4th warmest June globally on record.  NASA’s analysis produced the 4th warmest June in its dataset; NOAA recorded the 4th warmest May in its dataset.  The two agencies have slightly different analysis techniques, which actually helps to reinforce the results from each other.

The details:

June’s global average temperatures were 0.56°C (1.01°F) above normal (1951-1980), according to NASA, as the following graphic shows.  The warmest regions on Earth coincide with the locations where climate models have been projecting the most warmth to occur for years: high latitudes (especially within the Arctic Circle in June 2012).  The past three months have a +0.59°C temperature anomaly.  And the latest 12-month period (Jul 2011 – Jun 2012) had a +0.52°C temperature anomaly.  The time series graph in the lower-right quadrant shows NASA’s 12-month running mean temperature index.  The recent downturn (post-2010) is largely due to the latest La Niña event (see below for more) that recently ended.  As ENSO conditions return to normal, the temperature trace should track upward again.

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Figure 1. Global mean surface temperature anomaly maps and 12-month running mean time series through June 2012 from NASA.

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NASA & NOAA: April 2012 Among Top 5 Warmest On Record

8:33 am in Uncategorized by WeatherDem

According to data released by NASA and NOAA this month, April 2012 ranked among the top 5 warmest Aprils on record: NASA recorded the 4th (tied) warmest April in its dataset; NOAA recorded the 5th warmest April in its dataset.  The two agencies have slightly different analysis techniques, which actually helps to reinforce the results from each other.

The details:

April’s global average temperatures were 0.56°C above normal (1951-1980), according to NASA.  The warmest regions on Earth are exactly where climate models have been projecting the most warmth to occur for years: high latitudes (especially within the Arctic Circle in April 2012).  The past three months have a +0.47°C temperature anomaly.  And the latest 12-month period (May 2011 – Apr 2012) had a +0.49°C temperature anomaly.

According to NOAA, April’s global average temperatures were 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20th century mean of 13.7°C (56.7°F).  NOAA’s global temperature anomaly map for April reinforces the message: high latitudes continue to warm at a faster rate than the mid- or low-latitudes.  The extreme warmth over Siberia is especially worrisome due to the vast methane reserves locked into the tundra and under the seabed near the region.  Methane is a stronger greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide,which is the leading cause of the warmth we’re now witnessing.  As I discussed in the comments in a recent post, the warming signal from methane likely hasn’t been captured yet since the yearly natural variability and the CO2-caused warming signals are much stronger.  It is likely that we will not detect the the methane signal for many more years.

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