National data released last week show that there has been a sharp increase in Medicaid enrollment since last September, and that trend continued in April.  One surprising aspect of the latest HHS data is that the growth in Wisconsin trails that in most other states, even among the states that haven’t expanded Medicaid eligibility.

Nationally, 6 million more people were enrolled in Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) in April, compared to the 3-month period before open enrollment under the Affordable Care Act began last October. That includes growth of 1.1 million additional people in April, as compared to March (in the 48 states that reported data for both months).

The following graph illustrates that the increases have been much higher in the 25 states that have accepted federal funds to expand Medicaid eligibility for adults to 133% of the federal poverty level. The average increase of 10.3% for all 50 states compares with a jump of 15.3% in the expansion states in April (relative to the average enrollment in those states from July through Sept. 2013).

 

In contrast to the other “non-expansion” states, Wisconsin boosted eligibility for childless adults to 100% of the poverty level. Although that partial expansion of eligibility is partially offset by a significantly reduced income cap for parents in BadgerCare, the increase in the number of childless adults enrolled in BadgerCare is already substantially larger than the decline in parent coverage (thanks to much faster than expected growth among childless adults).  That makes it surprising that Wisconsin’s net increase of 1.1% (12,300 people) over the past 7 months was only one-third of the 3.3% average in the other non-expansion states.

I think a careful analysis of the latest Wisconsin data on the DHS website helps explain the smaller increase in Wisconsin. In contrast to the majority of states, where enrollment of kids has increased since September of last year, my analysis of the DHS data reveals that at the end of April there were almost 5,000 fewer children participating in BadgerCare than in September 2013. That’s surprising because the budget bill assumed that the Affordable Care Act would gradually result in an increase of nearly 40,000 already-eligible children being covered in BadgerCare.

Later this month, I’ll take a much closer look at the complicated tends in Wisconsin among already-eligible children and parents.

You can find last week’s report here.

by Jon Peacock