Per Krugman in today’s NYT:
Why do officials keep offering plans that nobody else finds credible? Because somehow, top officials in the Obama administration and at the Federal Reserve have convinced themselves that troubled assets, often referred to these days as “toxic waste,” are really worth much more than anyone is actually willing to pay for them — and that if these assets were properly priced, all our troubles would go away.
Which brings to mind this from an October 17, 2004, New York Times Magazine article by writer Ron Suskind, quoting an unnamed aide to George W. Bush:
The aide said that guys like me were “in what we call the reality-based community,” which he defined as people who “believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.” … “That’s not the way the world really works anymore,” he continued. “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”
And just as the Bush administration’s escapes from reality never quite worked, Krugman does not believe that the Obama Aminisitration’s will either:
But would it be enough to make the banking system healthy? No.
Think of it this way: by using taxpayer funds to subsidize the prices of toxic waste, the administration would shower benefits on everyone who made the mistake of buying the stuff. Some of those benefits would trickle down to where they’re needed, shoring up the balance sheets of key financial institutions. But most of the benefit would go to people who don’t need or deserve to be rescued.
And this means that the government would have to lay out trillions of dollars to bring the financial system back to health, which would, in turn, both ensure a fierce public outcry and add to already serious concerns about the deficit. (Yes, even strong advocates of fiscal stimulus like yours truly worry about red ink.)
So, the Obama administration, like their predecessors, believes that they are now masters of the universe, and the rest of us are merely here to applaud and study what they do.
How about we give them a rude surprise?



15 Comments







you’ve written a really important diary. i hope it provokes a lot of discussion and thinking. thank you.
As you say, if we don’t reality will. Your diary hits two important points. Our elites are clueless and no matter how much evidence is stacked up before them they remain in denial and continue to treat this all as business as usual and play the same old political games. And no matter how it is packaged this all keeps coming back to phony programs to overvalue the banks’ crap assets and so make them appear solvent when they so obviously aren’t.
I suspect that leaders are not so much clueless or lacking in factual knowledge as they are hubristic. That’s what this diary calls out to me.
The people who have what little control is possible over events vastly over-estimate the scope of their control (not just their wisdom, intelligence, righteousness, etc.). As a result, they don’t exercise what power/control that they have in wise and timely fashion. Events run away, and reality gets even more uncontrollable than it was.
Power has a sell-by date in the real world. You use it when the opportunity arises and as the opportunity dictates. If you fall into the trap of thinking you can make yourself better opportunities, your power evaporates.
My hope is that Mr. Obama is, as he seems to be, the smartest chief executive we have had since I entered man’s estate. Real smarts means introspection and humility. The question is, what can the people do to help Mr. Obama discover the transience of his moment in history before it is gone forever?
I don’t doubt some are lacking in knowledge or facts, but I suspect most are not about to disturb the gravy train… which must fund a large portion of their campaign coffers.
Why does B. POTUS O. trust Timmy G. in the first place?
That’s the question, isn’t it? Not just Geithner, but many of the other folks he’s surrounded himself with. Nouriel Roubini and Paul Krugman, among others, saw this coming. Yet who does the Obama administration nominate for the SEC? Someone who apparently was asleep at the switch while the current banking crisis was in its formative stages.
It really is discouraging.
Among the well-known economists who seem to have seen it coming are Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman, Nouriel “Dr. Doom” Roubini, Dean Baker, Nassim Taleb, James Galbraith. And despite the fact that many of them have served in previous administrations, none were selected to serve in Obama’s. He seems to feel that the best people to drive the car out of the ditch are those who drove it in.
And, how’s that working so far? The current headline at HuffPo reads:
That’s pretty much the picture on how these ditch drivers are doing.
here’s a good one:
Wow! That’s a classic. Stiglitz is very impressive.
i started reading stiglitz after i got interested in trade related issues (ftaa, imf, etc) and am going back now and reading or rereading him for all the other stuff. he just blows me away with how right and early he’s been on so many things related to our current crisis. also, i like him not just because he’s really good at bridging theoretical econ to real world policy but also because unlike technocrats who think they should rule (summers for example, who is just deadly wrong and doesn’t care, or even sachs who seems to care how policy affects ordinary people but still doesn’t seem think they have a right to any say – just the elite, even when they screw up), stiglitz has for years worked on behalf of ordinary people everywhere. he’s gone up against people like summers in defense of people who had no power to be heard. he advocates that people everywhere – ordinary people – should have a say in their own fate.
guess you could say i’m a fan.
From that same article, this about why Stiglitz isn’t on Obama’s team:
Summers has an interesting pedigree. His father is the brother of Paul Samuelson and his mother is the sister of Kenneth Arrow. So he has Nobel laureate economists as uncles on both sides of his family.
I have a friend who used to work as an economist for the World Bank. I recently learned that he overlapped with Summers and reported directly to Stiglitz. Needless to say, I’m learing a lot.
wigwam – i really hope you will find a way to share some of what you are learning. thanks
I’ll certainly share what I can. Also, I’ll ask specific questions that come up.
thanks. i’d be especially interested to know if my take on stiglitz is all wrong.